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Message
Facts from Peer Reviewed Medical articles about Ebola
Posted on 10/16/14 at 10:40 pm
Posted on 10/16/14 at 10:40 pm
Some of you doctors can explain to the board what a peer reviewed article from NEJM etc means as for as credibility. The facts are quite different from what the CDC is telling us right now. I think chance of this being something to be concerned about are remote. But as usual they are fricking lying to protect us from panic....again.
From another site. Everyone should read this. It is almost all from widely accepted peer viewed medical articles, and I suspect authored by a doctor.
I saw this table of symptoms in the New England Journal of Medicine and thought it was worth repeating. This was published by the WHO Ebola Response Team and the percentages are from the current outbreak in Africa. I did flip all of the percentages except for one from what percentage of people do have a certain symptom to what percentage don't. I think it makes it more obvious how many cases might be missed because someone doesn't have a particular symptom.
12.9% did not have a fever (11.8% of those who died did not) - About 1 in 8 do NOT have a fever!
23.6% did not feel fatigue (23.6% of those who died did not) - About 1 out of 4 do NOT feel fatigue!
32.4% did not vomit (30.6% of those who died did not) - About 1 out of 3 do NOT vomit!
34.4% did not have diarrhea (31.7% of those who died did not) - Anout 1 out of 3 do NOT have diarrhea!
In addition:
35.5% did not have loss of appetite (36% of those who died did not)
46.6% did not have a headache (46.2% of those who died did not)
55.7% did not have abdominal pain (56.5% of those who died did not)
60.6% did not have joint pain (59.3% of those who died did not
61.1% did not have muscle pain (59.8% of those who died did not)
63.0% did not have chest pain (59.8% of those who died did not
79.2% did not have conjunctivitis (red Ebola eyes) (76.4% of those who died did not)
82.0% did not have unexplained bleeding (79.8% of those who died did not)
92.3% did not have eye pain (91.1% of those who died did not)
This is the one percentage I didn't flip. When someone tells you that Ebola patients do not cough or sneeze so you won't catch it from droplets aerosolized in the air from an Ebola patient coughing, you can now cite this statistic:
29.6% of Ebola patients DO cough. And 32.5% of people who died from Ebola did cough. So about 1 out of 3 cough.
There is much more, including an expanded table of these symptoms here:
SOURCE: NEJM - Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa — The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections
LINK
From another site. Everyone should read this. It is almost all from widely accepted peer viewed medical articles, and I suspect authored by a doctor.
I saw this table of symptoms in the New England Journal of Medicine and thought it was worth repeating. This was published by the WHO Ebola Response Team and the percentages are from the current outbreak in Africa. I did flip all of the percentages except for one from what percentage of people do have a certain symptom to what percentage don't. I think it makes it more obvious how many cases might be missed because someone doesn't have a particular symptom.
12.9% did not have a fever (11.8% of those who died did not) - About 1 in 8 do NOT have a fever!
23.6% did not feel fatigue (23.6% of those who died did not) - About 1 out of 4 do NOT feel fatigue!
32.4% did not vomit (30.6% of those who died did not) - About 1 out of 3 do NOT vomit!
34.4% did not have diarrhea (31.7% of those who died did not) - Anout 1 out of 3 do NOT have diarrhea!
In addition:
35.5% did not have loss of appetite (36% of those who died did not)
46.6% did not have a headache (46.2% of those who died did not)
55.7% did not have abdominal pain (56.5% of those who died did not)
60.6% did not have joint pain (59.3% of those who died did not
61.1% did not have muscle pain (59.8% of those who died did not)
63.0% did not have chest pain (59.8% of those who died did not
79.2% did not have conjunctivitis (red Ebola eyes) (76.4% of those who died did not)
82.0% did not have unexplained bleeding (79.8% of those who died did not)
92.3% did not have eye pain (91.1% of those who died did not)
This is the one percentage I didn't flip. When someone tells you that Ebola patients do not cough or sneeze so you won't catch it from droplets aerosolized in the air from an Ebola patient coughing, you can now cite this statistic:
29.6% of Ebola patients DO cough. And 32.5% of people who died from Ebola did cough. So about 1 out of 3 cough.
There is much more, including an expanded table of these symptoms here:
SOURCE: NEJM - Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa — The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections
LINK
7
Posted on 10/16/14 at 10:43 pm to TutHillTiger
100% of cases that originated in the USA started in Dallas, TX
Maybe we need to quarantine Dallas and West Africa? They can only travel between each other, nowhere else?
Maybe we need to quarantine Dallas and West Africa? They can only travel between each other, nowhere else?
Posted on 10/16/14 at 10:44 pm to TutHillTiger
You say your source is nejm and don't give a link to nejm. What a fail.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 10:46 pm to Winkface
Is Nejm from Africa? Haven't heard of him.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 10:47 pm to Traffic Circle
I really thought this was basically bullshite, and over blown not I was not as sure. The fact that you can almost be asymptomatic and may still be contagious is scary shite
Posted on 10/16/14 at 10:48 pm to TutHillTiger
Posted on 10/16/14 at 10:50 pm to TutHillTiger
You linked "Above Top Secret"
Posted on 10/16/14 at 10:51 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
You linked "Above Top Secret"
This, and I'd like some recent MRI's. How about you?
Posted on 10/16/14 at 10:53 pm to Traffic Circle
Posted on 10/16/14 at 11:01 pm to tgrbaitn08
Yeah I linked above top secret because:
1)I am lazy,
2) the person there is obviously a medical or scientific professional and laid it all out better than I can, and has all the links in his/her article.
3) TOO LONG TO FIT HERE.
Yes I know ATS is often bs but not always
1)I am lazy,
2) the person there is obviously a medical or scientific professional and laid it all out better than I can, and has all the links in his/her article.
3) TOO LONG TO FIT HERE.
Yes I know ATS is often bs but not always
This post was edited on 10/16/14 at 11:02 pm
Posted on 10/16/14 at 11:09 pm to TutHillTiger
quote:
On the basis of the initial periods of exponential growth, the estimated basic reproduction numbers (R0 ) are 1.71 (95% CI, 1.44 to 2.01) for Guinea, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.72 to 1.94) for Liberia, and 2.02 (95% CI, 1.79 to 2.26) for Sierra Leone. The estimated current reproduction numbers (R) are 1.81 (95% CI, 1.60 to 2.03) for Guinea, 1.51 (95% CI, 1.41 to 1.60) for Liberia, and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.27 to 1.51) for Sierra Leone; the corresponding doubling times are 15.7 days (95% CI, 12.9 to 20.3) for Guinea, 23.6 days (95% CI, 20.2 to 28.2) for Liberia, and 30.2 days (95% CI, 23.6 to 42.3) for Sierra Leone.
This is the key info right here and shows WHY it won't take off in the US. If the R0 is sitting at around 1.5 in Africa it will be under 1 in the US, more likely it will be closer to zero here, and we have NOTHING to worry about.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 11:18 pm to lsu480
In English please. (LOL) I get what u r saying but air travel and cities with millions and 100k at a football game dont occur too often in the the affected areas of Africa either.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 11:21 pm to lsu480
The media has everyone here panicked. I came down with a virus around 3 1/2 weeks after coming home from Cameroon. Our vet heard I wasn't feeling well and next thing I know I'm getting calls from a local doctor. I had to explain to them I am 2000 miles away from the nearest outbreak. I told the doctor he is actually closer to Ebola here in the US than I am, in Africa. It was a short conversation.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 11:26 pm to TutHillTiger
quote:
92.3% did not have eye pain (91.1% of those who died did not)
My eye actually did hurt today so I'm relieved that Ebola is an unlikely candidate for the cause.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 11:32 pm to TutHillTiger
There was a case in Lagos Nigeria. City population is 23 million.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 11:36 pm to TutHillTiger
Alright let me break it down. R0 is the reproduction number, essentially it is a mathematical term that defines exactly how contagious a disease is, its the number of people we can expect to catch the disease from an infected person. Worldwide AIDS is around a 4 and measles are around an 18 to give you an idea of other viruses. Anyways, based on the #s in the NEJM Ebola is at 1.5-2 in Africa, meaning each person can be expected to give it to 1.5-2 people.
A lot of factors go into how contagious a disease is like how long you are sick, how long you are infectious etc. The great thing about Ebola is it can only be transferred by bodily fluid, there are ZERO facts saying otherwise so please don't start!
Because Ebola is not contagious until people show symptoms, and it takes 2 weeks for people to show symptoms defeating it is very simple. In order to defeat it all we have to do is when we find someone who is infected we have TWO WEEKS to find anyone they exchanged bodily fluids with and get them into isolation before they can show symptoms and pass it on to others. Once we do that the R0 truly is ZERO and the disease is gone. In the US if you exchanged body fluids with someone that has Ebola you ARE going to get help, and it will be before you are contagious and can pass it on, in Africa they do not get help.
I hope that made sense, its a VERY easy disease for us to defeat. We may have a case here, 2 there, 1 here for the next few months but thats really all that will happen. We are just very lucky Ebola is designed the way it is. If it was airborne sure it would be fricked but its not and the chances of it mutating are like less than 1 in a million.
A lot of factors go into how contagious a disease is like how long you are sick, how long you are infectious etc. The great thing about Ebola is it can only be transferred by bodily fluid, there are ZERO facts saying otherwise so please don't start!
Because Ebola is not contagious until people show symptoms, and it takes 2 weeks for people to show symptoms defeating it is very simple. In order to defeat it all we have to do is when we find someone who is infected we have TWO WEEKS to find anyone they exchanged bodily fluids with and get them into isolation before they can show symptoms and pass it on to others. Once we do that the R0 truly is ZERO and the disease is gone. In the US if you exchanged body fluids with someone that has Ebola you ARE going to get help, and it will be before you are contagious and can pass it on, in Africa they do not get help.
I hope that made sense, its a VERY easy disease for us to defeat. We may have a case here, 2 there, 1 here for the next few months but thats really all that will happen. We are just very lucky Ebola is designed the way it is. If it was airborne sure it would be fricked but its not and the chances of it mutating are like less than 1 in a million.
This post was edited on 10/16/14 at 11:41 pm
Posted on 10/16/14 at 11:41 pm to lsu480
The R0 decreases in 2 out of 3 of those countries is good news. Maybe they're starting to get their shite together.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 11:42 pm to TutHillTiger
The incompetence of the Obsma administration is staggering- and now American lives are in greater danger from this disease because of it.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 11:43 pm to Spock's Eyebrow
quote:
The R0 decreases in 2 out of 3 of those countries is good news. Maybe they're starting to get their shite together.
They absolutely are but it still doesn't really matter for Americans. Ya it sucks for Africans, it might be a pain in the arse for the CDC and a handful of hospitals but Ebola will never kill thousands in the US, it isn't built for it.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 11:45 pm to mikeytig
quote:
The incompetence of the Obsma administration is staggering- and now American lives are in greater danger from this disease because of it.
This has NOTHING to do with the administration, they have handled it well. The problem is the media blowing it out of proportion and the American people who don't do any research on Ebola and how it works.
ETA: Just to clarify I was only referring to their handling of Ebola, overall yes they are very incompetent.
This post was edited on 10/16/14 at 11:47 pm
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