Nate Silver gives GOP 60% chance t take Senate

It wasn't until after 2012 that Nate Silver proved me wrong and earned my respect. I put a lot of weight into his opinion and analysis now.

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Because he said Obama would take all the swing states and this board disagreed?

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No. Because he is a dem shill.

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This is good news, but I am extremely concerned that minorities and young people who are hard to poll will show up to vote.

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These are the midterm elections. Old white people vote in these. There's no Obama to draw out minorities and most young people don't know there's an election in a few weeks.

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but Dude nailed the last 2 cycles.

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In 2010 he nailed the Senate races, but finished in the middle of the pack on the big House wave side of things, beaten out by a dozen or so others.. In fact, he even hedged his bets the night before the 2010 elections by posting that there was a chance the Dems could surprise everyone and keep their majority against all odds. You don't hear much about that one. Only the Senate side of 2010.

For the non-believers:


The GOP picked up 63 House seats in 2010, and at 9:35 PM Election Eve , Nate Silver's model predicted a GOP pickup of just 54, missing by 9 seats.

"House Forecast: G.O.P. Plus 54-55 Seats; Significantly Larger or Smaller Gains Possible
By Nate Silver
November 1, 2010 9:35 pm"


"Our forecasting model, which is based on a consensus of indicators including generic ballot polling, polling of local districts, expert forecasts, and fund-raising data, now predicts an average Republican gain of 54 seats (up one from 53 seats in last night’s forecast), and a median Republican gain of 55 seats."

LINK /
Numerous prognosticators came closer than that.

In fact, at 8:20 PM on Election Eve (this is where he completely hedged his bets , knowing that if the unexpected happened, he would be hailed a genius!):



"5 Reasons Democrats Could Beat the Polls and Hold the House"
By Nate Silver
November 1, 2010 8:20 pm

LINK /

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These are the midterm elections. Old white people vote in these. There's no Obama to draw out minorities and most young people don't know there's an election in a few weeks.

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Lets hope to God this holds true and they stay their arse home. They've done enough damage.

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These are the midterm elections. Old white people vote in these. There's no Obama to draw out minorities and most young people don't know there's an election in a few weeks.

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Bingo. Thankfully the American Idol voter mentality has no idea of the importance of these midterms

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In 2010 he nailed the Senate races, but finished in the middle of the pack on the big House wave side of things, beaten out by a dozen or so others.. In fact, he even hedged his bets the night before the 2010 elections by posting that there was a chance the Dems could surprise everyone and keep their majority against all odds. You don't hear much about that one. Only the Senate side of 2010.

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looking at how he models, i would expect him to be more accurate in larger, natioanl or dstate wide elections that garner better polling information.

to model the house races, you get less frequesnt, less sampling, and less well known polling companies, so the data is weaker to analyze

Silver does not deal in absolutes, but rather odds, compounded on each race, to give the overall probability model. and he gives weights to polls who are historically closer to election cycles, and he weights to outcome on historic voting trends

Not the biggest fan of him or hs work, but if he keeps getting things right, he gets more credibility....

Funny how it boils down to this:


Republican hope: that extremely stupid, gullible, and/or uneducated people and/or people on the dole will not vote.


Democrat hope: that extremely stupid, gullible, and/or uneducated people and/or people on the dole will vote.

Nate Silver;dr

I'm all in for Joshua Chamberlain

It does appear that those numbers are increasing for the GOP

Drank a beer with Joshua the other day.

Says, he is still waiting on the Ohio results before he concedes. Thinks Romney still has a chance.