How Bill Cassidy can defeat three-term Senator Mary Landrieu

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In 2014, it shouldn't be that difficult to defeat a Democrat in Louisiana.

Republican candidate Mitt Romney defeated President Barack Obama by 17 points in Louisiana two years ago. Every single statewide elected official in Louisiana, with the exception of one, is a Republican.

The GOP also enjoys healthy majorities in both branches of the Louisiana Legislature. Six out of eight of members of Louisiana's Congressional delegation are Republicans.

So it shouldn't be that hard for Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy to defeat Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu this year. Except every election cycle is a good one to beat Landrieu, and yet she is still in office. 

"You don't want to ever underestimate Mary Landrieu. ... She's a fighter," said Timmy Teepell, chief political strategist for Gov. Bobby Jindal. 

Landrieu won her first Senate race in 1996 by a little less than 6,000 of the 1.7 million votes cast. Six years later, she was forced into a December runoff as an incumbent -- a bit unusual -- but still won, with 52 percent of the vote. In 2008, she earned about the same level of support. 

Landrieu's perseverance is one of the reasons seasoned election experts like Charlie Cook continue to rate this year's Louisiana Senate race as a "toss up", even though the state has been leaning Republican for several years.

The Cassidy campaign just can't assume Republican-leaning voters will come out and support him. It has to employ a sophisticated strategy to turn out the vote for its candidate.

"We take nothing for granted," Cassidy said of the election.  

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Landrieu performs unusually well for a Democrat in the typically conservative and well-populated Jefferson and St. Tammany parishes. 

In 2008, the Senator won Jefferson with 52 percent of the vote when Obama only garnered 40 percent support. She also received 36 percent of the vote to Obama's 22 percent in St. Tammany Parish that year.

Landrieu also performed better in both localities during her 2002 runoff than fellow Democrat Gov. Kathleen Blanco did the following year in 2003. 

So Cassidy has to try to peel away some of those Landrieu "crossover" voters -- people who support Republicans and the Senator -- away from her. In a tight race, he can't afford to lose any support from reliably GOP voters.

"South Louisiana is a big battleground in this state and where Mary has over-performed in the past," said Jason Dore, executive director of the Louisiana Republican Party.  

Landrieu could be popular for a number of reasons in Jefferson and St. Tammany. For example, she got the federal government to forgive a number of its loans to local governments following Hurricane Katrina. Jefferson and St. Tammany are also in the greater New Orleans area, where Landrieu's father Moon, a former New Orleans mayor, is well liked. 

Six years ago, Landrieu was popular enough to pick up official endorsements from several Republican officials in the two localities. Jefferson Parish Sheriff Newell Normand and St. Tammany Parish Sheriff Mike Strain -- both elected Republicans -- publicly backed Landrieu in the race. Strain even appeared in a commercial for the Senator in 2008.

This year though, the Republicans in Jefferson and St. Tammany parishes are mostly hanging together. GOP leaders said they don't expect the same type of defection from GOP elected officials to the Landrieu camp. 

"I haven't heard from any Republicans coming out for her yet. ... The majority of the council is supporting Cassidy," said Jefferson Parish Councilman Paul Johnston. 

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