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Message
Wouldn't be surprised if Sept. jobs PLUS Jul/Aug revisions total 300k tomorrow
Posted on 10/2/14 at 6:14 pm
Posted on 10/2/14 at 6:14 pm
ADP came out with 213k on Wednesday and the average of about 10 economists and financial websites are predicting 215k (several before the ADP figure was released). These figures are for September only, and do not include the July and August revisions also being announced tomorrow.
This the last jobs report before Election Day.
The next 32 days will see literally hundreds of candidates debates in races for the 471 voting seats in Congress up for grabs on November 4th.
A total net gain of 300k+ for September + revised figures for August (in particular) and July would serve as a magic number for Democratic candidates to swing the final month of campaigning and campaign ads back to the economy.
A gain of 250k is pretty much a sure thing (again, I'm talking about the total pickups for the three months that will be announced Friday morning, not just the September number), and +275K seems well within reach. It's that last 25k that, if achieved, will bring jobs back into the Dem talking points for the final leg of the campaign.
"300k new jobs" has a ring to it that 250k new jobs just doesn't have.
This the last jobs report before Election Day.
The next 32 days will see literally hundreds of candidates debates in races for the 471 voting seats in Congress up for grabs on November 4th.
A total net gain of 300k+ for September + revised figures for August (in particular) and July would serve as a magic number for Democratic candidates to swing the final month of campaigning and campaign ads back to the economy.
A gain of 250k is pretty much a sure thing (again, I'm talking about the total pickups for the three months that will be announced Friday morning, not just the September number), and +275K seems well within reach. It's that last 25k that, if achieved, will bring jobs back into the Dem talking points for the final leg of the campaign.
"300k new jobs" has a ring to it that 250k new jobs just doesn't have.
This post was edited on 10/2/14 at 6:21 pm
10
Posted on 10/2/14 at 6:18 pm to NHTIGER
Feathers...knocking me over.
Posted on 10/2/14 at 6:24 pm to NHTIGER
Well if the sound of projectile vomiting by Ebola victims starts emanating from all over, I don't think the numbers will matter at all.
This post was edited on 10/2/14 at 6:25 pm
Posted on 10/2/14 at 6:49 pm to NHTIGER
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
SO is that the number they are going to be making up for this election?
SO is that the number they are going to be making up for this election?
Posted on 10/2/14 at 7:09 pm to NHTIGER
I respect your post history NHTIGER, but you are dead wrong on this one.
Forget about 300k...we won't even sniff 250k.
No need for a ban bet etc; just saying you are wrong on this one.
Now Benghazi...I trust your updates and facts (despite your leanings)
Come back to this thread tomorrow and, aside from your stated reasons for saying this, there is no political history you can give me from this administration, for stating this.
Unless you are drunk on a Thursday night before the 'official kick-off of games that matter for LSU' in the SEC, I can't give you a pass on this one
Forget about 300k...we won't even sniff 250k.
No need for a ban bet etc; just saying you are wrong on this one.
Now Benghazi...I trust your updates and facts (despite your leanings)
Come back to this thread tomorrow and, aside from your stated reasons for saying this, there is no political history you can give me from this administration, for stating this.
Unless you are drunk on a Thursday night before the 'official kick-off of games that matter for LSU' in the SEC, I can't give you a pass on this one
Posted on 10/2/14 at 7:17 pm to NHTIGER
Well if this is the October surprise Bob Beckel keeps harping about then it ain't very much to go oooweee about.
Posted on 10/2/14 at 7:46 pm to EthanL
quote:
.we won't even sniff 250k.
Did you pay close attention to the four times I specifically pointed out that the figure I am talking about is not just the September new jobs, but also includes the net upward revisions for August and July?
quote:
I respect your post history NHTIGER, but you are dead wrong on this one.
quote:
Now Benghazi...I trust your updates and facts (despite your leanings)
I do appreciate the positive comments that were included in your post. People do not have to agree in order to be civil with each other.
quote:
No need for a ban bet etc; just saying you are wrong on this one.
I don't do the ban bet thing, so it would not have mattered anyway, just for the record. And I may very well be wrong. Most of my posts deal with facts and information issues - this one is a prediction of sorts, thus being "right" is strictly a roll of the dice, which is why the thread title reads" wouldn't be surprised if..." rather than a declarative statement that it will happen.
quote:
Come back to this thread tomorrow and, aside from your stated reasons for saying this, there is no political history you can give me from this administration, for stating this.
I rarely visit the board in the morning hours but will definitely come as soon as I can and and accept whatever comeuppance I am due. I knew when I opened the thread that by doing so I had little to gain and a lot to lose (in terms of feedback after the report is released) in making a suggestion that I have not seen on any business website. I do, however, believe it could very well happen, though of course I cannot provide any definitive data to make the suggestion. The key will be the upward adjustment in the August jobs number. There is reason to believe the early reporting percentage was significantly below normal due to the timing of Labor Day weekend.
The last part of that sentence from you suggests that my post is based upon the premise that the administration "arranged" the numbers to come out that way. Which is not the case at all. My political references regarding the 300k number have to do with the fact that jobs has not been among the top three debate topics in hardly any of the 36 Senate or 435 voting House races. The reason for that is the mixed economic results of the past year, some good, some bad, that when taken in the aggregate are not strong talking points for either party's candidates. If one says tit, the other says tat. "I'll see that statistic, and raise you one." However, a 300k added jobs figure announced in one release 31 days before the election would give Dems a leg up in debates because it would be the last significant economic report before the election (other than the preliminary release of 3rd quarter GDP, which will come on Oct.30th, too close to the election to have any effect on debates or ad campaign materials).
quote:
Unless you are drunk on a Thursday night before the 'official kick-off of games that matter for LSU' in the SEC, I can't give you a pass on this one
I have about 5 drinks a year, and tonight is one of my 360 off-days, so that didn't affect my thread introduction. I binge on dark chocolate to prepare for LSU games.
As for not giving me a pass on this one, well, no quarter sought, no quarter given.
Posted on 10/2/14 at 9:01 pm to NHTIGER
quote:
NHTIGER
I don't know if it will hit 300k, but considering the President's speech at Northwestern today it will probably be close.
quote:
When I took office, businesses were laying off 800,000 Americans a month. Today, our businesses are hiring 200,000 Americans a month. (Applause.) The unemployment rate has come down from a high of 10 percent in 2009, to 6.1 percent today. (Applause.) Over the past four and a half years, our businesses have created 10 million new jobs; this is the longest uninterrupted stretch of private sector job creation in our history.
When the President comes out with a speech touting falling Unemployment this strongly the day before numbers are released, it's a pretty safe bet that it indicates the numbers will be in his favor.
Posted on 10/2/14 at 9:04 pm to Bard
Oh, so what people see with their own eyes will just go right out the window I guess.
happy times for all!
happy times for all!
Posted on 10/3/14 at 8:07 am to NHTIGER
Bumped because he was so right.
Funny...same thing happened right before 2012 elections, with those numbers revised downward later. The only transparency from these people is their lying.
Funny...same thing happened right before 2012 elections, with those numbers revised downward later. The only transparency from these people is their lying.
This post was edited on 10/3/14 at 8:23 am
Posted on 10/3/14 at 8:15 am to gthog61
quote:
Oh, so what people see with their own eyes will just go right out the window I guess.
There's so much cluelessness here, I don't know where to begin.
Posted on 10/3/14 at 8:18 am to udtiger
quote:
Bumped because he was so right.
Funny...same thin happened right before 2012 elections, with those numbers revised downward later.
Agreed. I didn't think it would hit 300k but for the President to be pumping numbers the day before they get released is something that only fools ignore.
It will be interesting to see how big the revision is because in 2012 it was surprisingly substantial (surprising in that I-can't-believe-they-actually-got-away-with-that sort of way).
Posted on 10/3/14 at 9:01 am to NHTIGER
quote:
NHTIGER
Nice prediction.
The unemployment data manipulation by this administration is almost comical.
This post was edited on 10/3/14 at 9:03 am
Posted on 10/3/14 at 9:35 am to NHTIGER
quote:
This the last jobs report before Election Day.
quote:
"300k new jobs" has a ring to it that 250k new jobs just doesn't have.
Nice call NHTIGER.
Revisions up before elections, revisions down after elections. Is this how it works?
Posted on 10/3/14 at 9:37 am to NHTIGER
quote:
magic number
300k!
5.9%!
30 days till elections!
It's like 2012 all over again.
Posted on 10/3/14 at 9:39 am to NHTIGER
quote:
People do not have to agree in order to be civil with each other.
I'm just browsing the thread, but I want to echo my respect for EthanL - he and I have agreed on very little on here (although occasionally, we get there), but he is a great example of your point.
Posted on 10/3/14 at 9:41 am to Bard
quote:
It will be interesting to see how big the revision is because in 2012 it was surprisingly substantial (surprising in that I-can't-believe-they-actually-got-away-with-that sort of way).
It's what bullies do.
Who's gonna stop it?
Posted on 10/3/14 at 9:45 am to NHTIGER
Just so we're clear, are you asserting that the Obama Administration is somehow coercing the Labor Department to fudge it's numbers? What exactly are you suggesting?
Or are you not saying, but you're just saying.
Or are you not saying, but you're just saying.
Posted on 10/3/14 at 9:50 am to a want
quote:
Obama Administration is somehow coercing the Labor Department to fudge it's numbers?
No need to coerce when you appoint the head of the agency. There is no way such a non-partisan agency like the Labor Department (or IRS, for example) could have a political operative in charge to make sure that the key reports of the agency, timed to election cycles, don't get us to a "positive result", is there?
(Of course this happens, despite your disbelief. They can't do it every month, because they'd get caught. And they get to revise later to avoid jail. However, to pretend they don't do this is the height of naivete or worse.)
This post was edited on 10/3/14 at 9:51 am
Posted on 10/3/14 at 9:52 am to a want
quote:
Or are you not saying, but you're just saying.
Damn, want, almost word for word from this exchange...
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