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Message
RESULTS ALL IN -Tuesday, Sept. 9th, Primaries Thread ( NY, DE, RI, MA & NH)
Posted on 9/9/14 at 1:34 am
Posted on 9/9/14 at 1:34 am
(#1 of 2)
NEW YORK:
Congressional primaries were held on June 24th. Today is state &local only. The gubernatorial nominees today are sure things: Incumbent Dem Gov. Andrew Cuomo will be facing Republican Rob Asterino in the November general election. NY candidates for the governorship name running mates for the Lt.Gov. position, but the Lt. Gov. candidates have to be voted on separately. Some believe that Tim Wu has a chance of defeating Cuomo's chosen running mate, Kathy Hochul. If that happens, Cuomo would automatically be paired with Wu on the Democratic Party ticket in November, even while he still wants Hochul. To complicate matters, a Cuomo-Hochul ticket would still appear on the November ballot as the nominees for three other lesser parties. The votes for Cuomo-Wu cannot be combined with the votes for Cuomo-Hochul, so either Cuomo has to go into his next term with a Lt. Gov. he doesn't even like (the result if he wins as a Democrat), or he is able to get enough Dems to vote for he and Hochul via the total of the other three voting boxes. It would be one or the other, as Republican Astorino has virtually no chance of winning even with a split Cuomo vote. If your head isn't spinning yet, the easy way out of this potential predicament is to have Kathy Hochul defeat Tim Wu tonight. If that happens, I wrote all this for nothing.
*** KATHY HOCHUL HAS BEEN DECLARED THE WINNER OVER TIM WU FOR THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION FOR LT. GOV. OF NEW YORK ***
*** INCUMBENT ANDREW CUOMO HAS BEEN DECLARED THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE FOR GOVERNOR OF NEW YORK, AND WILL RUN AS A TEAM IN NOVEMBER WITH KATHY HOCHUL IN NOVEMBER ***
DELAWARE:
No Governor race in Delaware this year.
Incumbent Dem. Senator Chris Coons is unopposed for his party's nomination. On the GOP side tonight, it's a two person contest that will likely be one-sided when the votes are counted, in favor of Kevin Wade. Wade's opponent is 81 yr. old Carl Smink who talks to God every single day and was told to run for the Senate by The Man himself. Unfortunately for Mr. Smink, he's running in Delaware, a state where having friends in "high places" doesn't count for much if you're a Republican. It will be a Coons-Wade choice in November, and Coons should win very easily (unless of course a revenge curse is placed on him by retired witch Christine O'Donnell!)
*** WADE DECLARED WINNER OVER SMINKS ***
Delaware has only one House seat, and the incumbent is Dem. John Carney (not the kicker, the OTHER John Carney). He is unopposed today , as is Republican Rose Izzo. Carney kicks Izzo's butt in November's general election, but she is an NRA member and a Girl Scout Troop Leader, so John best not kick too hard.
RHODE ISLAND:
Incumbent Republican-turned-Independent-turned Democrat Governor Lincoln Chafee is not seeking reelection. Chafee was a United States Senator as a Republican, then was elected Governor as an Independent. After his election, he switched to the Democratic Party. Even though RI is a strongly Dem state, his favorability ratings dropped like a rock soon after that, and he decided not to run again.
Chafee has endorsed late-charging political newcomer Herbert Claiborne Pell IV in the Democratic primary to replace him. Pell is the grandson of former six-term U.S. Senator Claiborne Pell (as in Pell Grants!) and is married to former Olympic superstar ice skater Michelle Kwan. Pell has been surging, but nevertheless is in a 3-way tossup race with Providence mayor Angel Taveras and State Treasurer Gina Raimondo. This race could end up in a 3-way tie at 33% apiece, with the 4th candidate, Todd Giroux, winning 1% and becoming the most famous "1%-er" in Rhode Island political history. On the GOP side, it's favorite Ken Block vs. Allan Fung (who is candid about not being related to Allen Funt). This too could be a very tight contest, but the winner of this nasty battle will almost surely lose to the Dem nominee in November.
*** RAIMONDO DECLARED WINNER OF DEMOCRATIC GUBERNATORIAL NOMINATION ***
*** ALLAN FUNG HAS BEEN DECLARED THE UPSET WINNER OVER KEN BLOCK FOR THE REPUBLICAN GUBERNATORIAL NOMINATION ***
Incumbent U.S. Senator Jack Reed is unopposed in his Dem primary and Republican Mark Zaccaria is unopposed in the Republican primary. Reed will steamroll Zaccaria in November because, well, it's Rhode Island. (Note: If Jack and Harry decide to co-sponsor a bill, here's hoping the other senators read "Reid-Reed" before they pass it.)
RI has two House seats and let's just say the two sitting Dems will remain seated.
NEW YORK:
Congressional primaries were held on June 24th. Today is state &local only. The gubernatorial nominees today are sure things: Incumbent Dem Gov. Andrew Cuomo will be facing Republican Rob Asterino in the November general election. NY candidates for the governorship name running mates for the Lt.Gov. position, but the Lt. Gov. candidates have to be voted on separately. Some believe that Tim Wu has a chance of defeating Cuomo's chosen running mate, Kathy Hochul. If that happens, Cuomo would automatically be paired with Wu on the Democratic Party ticket in November, even while he still wants Hochul. To complicate matters, a Cuomo-Hochul ticket would still appear on the November ballot as the nominees for three other lesser parties. The votes for Cuomo-Wu cannot be combined with the votes for Cuomo-Hochul, so either Cuomo has to go into his next term with a Lt. Gov. he doesn't even like (the result if he wins as a Democrat), or he is able to get enough Dems to vote for he and Hochul via the total of the other three voting boxes. It would be one or the other, as Republican Astorino has virtually no chance of winning even with a split Cuomo vote. If your head isn't spinning yet, the easy way out of this potential predicament is to have Kathy Hochul defeat Tim Wu tonight. If that happens, I wrote all this for nothing.
*** KATHY HOCHUL HAS BEEN DECLARED THE WINNER OVER TIM WU FOR THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION FOR LT. GOV. OF NEW YORK ***
*** INCUMBENT ANDREW CUOMO HAS BEEN DECLARED THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE FOR GOVERNOR OF NEW YORK, AND WILL RUN AS A TEAM IN NOVEMBER WITH KATHY HOCHUL IN NOVEMBER ***
DELAWARE:
No Governor race in Delaware this year.
Incumbent Dem. Senator Chris Coons is unopposed for his party's nomination. On the GOP side tonight, it's a two person contest that will likely be one-sided when the votes are counted, in favor of Kevin Wade. Wade's opponent is 81 yr. old Carl Smink who talks to God every single day and was told to run for the Senate by The Man himself. Unfortunately for Mr. Smink, he's running in Delaware, a state where having friends in "high places" doesn't count for much if you're a Republican. It will be a Coons-Wade choice in November, and Coons should win very easily (unless of course a revenge curse is placed on him by retired witch Christine O'Donnell!)
*** WADE DECLARED WINNER OVER SMINKS ***
Delaware has only one House seat, and the incumbent is Dem. John Carney (not the kicker, the OTHER John Carney). He is unopposed today , as is Republican Rose Izzo. Carney kicks Izzo's butt in November's general election, but she is an NRA member and a Girl Scout Troop Leader, so John best not kick too hard.
RHODE ISLAND:
Incumbent Republican-turned-Independent-turned Democrat Governor Lincoln Chafee is not seeking reelection. Chafee was a United States Senator as a Republican, then was elected Governor as an Independent. After his election, he switched to the Democratic Party. Even though RI is a strongly Dem state, his favorability ratings dropped like a rock soon after that, and he decided not to run again.
Chafee has endorsed late-charging political newcomer Herbert Claiborne Pell IV in the Democratic primary to replace him. Pell is the grandson of former six-term U.S. Senator Claiborne Pell (as in Pell Grants!) and is married to former Olympic superstar ice skater Michelle Kwan. Pell has been surging, but nevertheless is in a 3-way tossup race with Providence mayor Angel Taveras and State Treasurer Gina Raimondo. This race could end up in a 3-way tie at 33% apiece, with the 4th candidate, Todd Giroux, winning 1% and becoming the most famous "1%-er" in Rhode Island political history. On the GOP side, it's favorite Ken Block vs. Allan Fung (who is candid about not being related to Allen Funt). This too could be a very tight contest, but the winner of this nasty battle will almost surely lose to the Dem nominee in November.
*** RAIMONDO DECLARED WINNER OF DEMOCRATIC GUBERNATORIAL NOMINATION ***
*** ALLAN FUNG HAS BEEN DECLARED THE UPSET WINNER OVER KEN BLOCK FOR THE REPUBLICAN GUBERNATORIAL NOMINATION ***
Incumbent U.S. Senator Jack Reed is unopposed in his Dem primary and Republican Mark Zaccaria is unopposed in the Republican primary. Reed will steamroll Zaccaria in November because, well, it's Rhode Island. (Note: If Jack and Harry decide to co-sponsor a bill, here's hoping the other senators read "Reid-Reed" before they pass it.)
RI has two House seats and let's just say the two sitting Dems will remain seated.
This post was edited on 9/9/14 at 10:15 pm
10
Posted on 9/9/14 at 1:36 am to NHTIGER
(#2 of 2)
MASSACHUSETTS:
Ahh, the Bay State, home of beloved Senators Ted Kennedy, John Kerry and Elizabeth Warren. Ted's dead, John's gone and Warren's on the Warpath. However, the other MA Senator, household name Ed Markey is unopposed today and despite being semi-comatose and unsure which way is up, will easily defeat the unknown stiff the GOP nominates today.
MA has 9 seats in the House and all 9 are currently held by Dems. 8 of those should stay Dem easily, but in CD #6, incumbent John Tierney faces double obstacles in order to get back to Washington. Today, he must defeat fellow Dem Seth Moulton in the primary, a candidate against whom he held only a 1 point lead as of last week. Whichever Dem. wins must face that rarity - a strong Republican challenger for a MA House seat. Richard Tisei, who is both liberal and gay , lost 48-47 to Tierney in 2012, when Obama beat Romney by 23 points statewide. Tisei is unopposed tonight, so he's just sitting back waiting for an opponent in his quest to break the Democratic stranglehold in the MA congressional delegation.
*** SETH MOULTON HAS DEFEATED INCUMBENT CONGRESSMAN JOHN TIERNEY IN MA 6TH CD DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY ***
Dem. Governor Deval Patrick is not running for reelection. There are 3 Dem candidates for the nomination - Martha Coakley (who lost to Scott Brown for Kennedy's vacant Senate seat in a 2010 special election) is the frontrunner , leading Steve Grossman by 10 or 12 points in most polls, and Don Berwick is running a weak 3rd. With a win, Coakley will be up against sure-bet GOP nominee Charlie Baker in November. She also leads Baker by 10-12 points in polling. But then again, she led Scott Brown by 9 points with 9 days to go back in 2010, and lost 52-47!!
*** MARTHA COAKLEY HAS BEEN DECLARED THE WINNER OVER STEVE GROSSMAN AND DAN BERWICK FOR THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION FOR GOVERNOR ***
NEW HAMPSHIRE:
Here's where I finally get to cast some votes.
Women currently hold both Senate seats, both House seats and the Governor's office. Only one is a Republican, Sen. Kelly Ayotte, and she's safe until 2016. The other 4 offices have to be defended this year. The incumbent Dem women in all 4 races have either no opposition or token opposition today, so it's all about the Republicans. And all 4 are being heavily contested.
In the GOP primary for Governor, Walt Havenstein is a slight favorite over Andrew Hemingway. The winner will almost certainly lose to popular first-term Gov. Maggie Hassan in November. Hassan, by the way, is expected to compete for Sen. Ayotte's Senate seat in 2016. (I'm voting for Havenstein.)
*** HAVENSTEIN DECLARED WINNER OVER HEMINGWAY***
Another former female Governor is NH's other Senator - Jeanne Shaheen. She will face the winner of a TEN-person race for the GOP nomination. Former MA Senator Scott Brown is the favorite, but the last few days have seen an unbelievable barrage of negative ads against him, falsely claiming that he is a former Washington lobbyist. The ads have been bought by a new super-PAC named MAYDAY which, ironically, was formed to fight , what else - Super-PACS! The group has a ton of cash and their agenda is to select 5 races this year and prove a point that a weaker candidate can beat a stronger candidate based on big spending alone. They "adopted" Jim Rubens in this race and Rubens had to commit to work for campaign spending caps to earn their big $$$$ in his fight to beat Brown today. The ad buy was so heavy ( I saw the ad about 7 times during the Patriots game on Sunday) and widespread that some believe it could move the undecideds to Rubens and throw a scare into Brown as the results come in. If Rubens wins today, Shaheen will easily defeat him in November, whereas a Brown win is likely to result in a very close general election. Former U.S. Senator Bob Smith is expected to run 3rd. (I'm voting for Brown.)
*** SCOTT BROWN DECLARED WINNER OVER RUBENS AND SMITH ***
IN CD1, incumbent Dem Carol Shea-Porter is the ultimate Obama groupie. She held this seat but lost it in the 2010 GOP "wave" year. In 2012, with Obama back on the ballot, she re-took the seat , defeating the guy who defeated her. She's considered very vulnerable in this off-year election and there are 4 GOP candidates fighting to oppose her in November, including that same guy, Frank Guinta, who beat her in 2010 and lost to her in 2012. He's a slight favorite over another gay Republican and "academic", Dan Innis who, with no significant opposition for Shea-Porter today, is expected to get a lot of Independent voters. Guinta has been polling even or better against Shea-Porter in their continuing game of musical House chair, while polls indicate Innis would lose to her by double digits. So the GOP has a real chance to pick up a rare New England House seat here if Guinta wins the primary today - otherwise, CD#1 likely stays in Dem hands. (I can't vote in this one since I can't vote twice like urban Dems can.)
*** FRANK GUINTA HAS BEEN DECLARED THE WINNER OVER DAN INNIS FOR THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION FOR THE NH 1ST CD SEAT IN THE HOUSE ***
And last but definitely not least, the CD #2 seat now held by Dem Annie Kuster. (Annie Kuster would be a cool name for a hot dame - unfortunately she bears a striking resemblance to General Custer instead. Their 'staches are about the same.) NH is 94% white and 2% Asian. Among the 4 Republicans running to oppose Kuster in November are a Hispanic woman and a black man. (to go along with the gay guy in CD #1 - NH GOP is bustin' out the multiculturalism this year). The three main candidates are running behind Kuster (just as Custer's troops were running behind him) in Nov. matchup polls, but are within single digits. Marilinda Garcia is a good-lookin' 31 yr old state Rep who had Ted Cruz campaigning for her here on Sunday. I like Garcia but am not a Cruz fan, so that messed with my mind. Gary Lambert is neck-and-neck with Garcia (hmm, "neck-and-neck" with Marilinda? lucky SOB!), and black candidate Jim Lawrence has been coming on very strong in the closing days. I could live with any of the three winning the nomination, so whichever one is most likely to take that seat away from General Kuster is the one I want to win. The last poll of potential November matchups had Garcia within 3 points of Kuster, Lambert within 6 and Lawrence within 8 but closing faster than the other two. I honestly don't know which of the three I will vote for when I get behind that curtain. I've changed my mind 12 times just since I started writing this opening thread!!!
*** MARILINDA GARCIA DECLARED WINNER OF REPUBLICAN NOMINATION FOR 2ND CD HOUSE SEAT ***
And there you have more information than you could possibly want to know about Tuesday's primaries in the Northeast. At least all will have EST early closing times, so presumably no 3 AM updates this time around.
The End. (until results start to come in)
MASSACHUSETTS:
Ahh, the Bay State, home of beloved Senators Ted Kennedy, John Kerry and Elizabeth Warren. Ted's dead, John's gone and Warren's on the Warpath. However, the other MA Senator, household name Ed Markey is unopposed today and despite being semi-comatose and unsure which way is up, will easily defeat the unknown stiff the GOP nominates today.
MA has 9 seats in the House and all 9 are currently held by Dems. 8 of those should stay Dem easily, but in CD #6, incumbent John Tierney faces double obstacles in order to get back to Washington. Today, he must defeat fellow Dem Seth Moulton in the primary, a candidate against whom he held only a 1 point lead as of last week. Whichever Dem. wins must face that rarity - a strong Republican challenger for a MA House seat. Richard Tisei, who is both liberal and gay , lost 48-47 to Tierney in 2012, when Obama beat Romney by 23 points statewide. Tisei is unopposed tonight, so he's just sitting back waiting for an opponent in his quest to break the Democratic stranglehold in the MA congressional delegation.
*** SETH MOULTON HAS DEFEATED INCUMBENT CONGRESSMAN JOHN TIERNEY IN MA 6TH CD DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY ***
Dem. Governor Deval Patrick is not running for reelection. There are 3 Dem candidates for the nomination - Martha Coakley (who lost to Scott Brown for Kennedy's vacant Senate seat in a 2010 special election) is the frontrunner , leading Steve Grossman by 10 or 12 points in most polls, and Don Berwick is running a weak 3rd. With a win, Coakley will be up against sure-bet GOP nominee Charlie Baker in November. She also leads Baker by 10-12 points in polling. But then again, she led Scott Brown by 9 points with 9 days to go back in 2010, and lost 52-47!!
*** MARTHA COAKLEY HAS BEEN DECLARED THE WINNER OVER STEVE GROSSMAN AND DAN BERWICK FOR THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION FOR GOVERNOR ***
NEW HAMPSHIRE:
Here's where I finally get to cast some votes.
Women currently hold both Senate seats, both House seats and the Governor's office. Only one is a Republican, Sen. Kelly Ayotte, and she's safe until 2016. The other 4 offices have to be defended this year. The incumbent Dem women in all 4 races have either no opposition or token opposition today, so it's all about the Republicans. And all 4 are being heavily contested.
In the GOP primary for Governor, Walt Havenstein is a slight favorite over Andrew Hemingway. The winner will almost certainly lose to popular first-term Gov. Maggie Hassan in November. Hassan, by the way, is expected to compete for Sen. Ayotte's Senate seat in 2016. (I'm voting for Havenstein.)
*** HAVENSTEIN DECLARED WINNER OVER HEMINGWAY***
Another former female Governor is NH's other Senator - Jeanne Shaheen. She will face the winner of a TEN-person race for the GOP nomination. Former MA Senator Scott Brown is the favorite, but the last few days have seen an unbelievable barrage of negative ads against him, falsely claiming that he is a former Washington lobbyist. The ads have been bought by a new super-PAC named MAYDAY which, ironically, was formed to fight , what else - Super-PACS! The group has a ton of cash and their agenda is to select 5 races this year and prove a point that a weaker candidate can beat a stronger candidate based on big spending alone. They "adopted" Jim Rubens in this race and Rubens had to commit to work for campaign spending caps to earn their big $$$$ in his fight to beat Brown today. The ad buy was so heavy ( I saw the ad about 7 times during the Patriots game on Sunday) and widespread that some believe it could move the undecideds to Rubens and throw a scare into Brown as the results come in. If Rubens wins today, Shaheen will easily defeat him in November, whereas a Brown win is likely to result in a very close general election. Former U.S. Senator Bob Smith is expected to run 3rd. (I'm voting for Brown.)
*** SCOTT BROWN DECLARED WINNER OVER RUBENS AND SMITH ***
IN CD1, incumbent Dem Carol Shea-Porter is the ultimate Obama groupie. She held this seat but lost it in the 2010 GOP "wave" year. In 2012, with Obama back on the ballot, she re-took the seat , defeating the guy who defeated her. She's considered very vulnerable in this off-year election and there are 4 GOP candidates fighting to oppose her in November, including that same guy, Frank Guinta, who beat her in 2010 and lost to her in 2012. He's a slight favorite over another gay Republican and "academic", Dan Innis who, with no significant opposition for Shea-Porter today, is expected to get a lot of Independent voters. Guinta has been polling even or better against Shea-Porter in their continuing game of musical House chair, while polls indicate Innis would lose to her by double digits. So the GOP has a real chance to pick up a rare New England House seat here if Guinta wins the primary today - otherwise, CD#1 likely stays in Dem hands. (I can't vote in this one since I can't vote twice like urban Dems can.)
*** FRANK GUINTA HAS BEEN DECLARED THE WINNER OVER DAN INNIS FOR THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION FOR THE NH 1ST CD SEAT IN THE HOUSE ***
And last but definitely not least, the CD #2 seat now held by Dem Annie Kuster. (Annie Kuster would be a cool name for a hot dame - unfortunately she bears a striking resemblance to General Custer instead. Their 'staches are about the same.) NH is 94% white and 2% Asian. Among the 4 Republicans running to oppose Kuster in November are a Hispanic woman and a black man. (to go along with the gay guy in CD #1 - NH GOP is bustin' out the multiculturalism this year). The three main candidates are running behind Kuster (just as Custer's troops were running behind him) in Nov. matchup polls, but are within single digits. Marilinda Garcia is a good-lookin' 31 yr old state Rep who had Ted Cruz campaigning for her here on Sunday. I like Garcia but am not a Cruz fan, so that messed with my mind. Gary Lambert is neck-and-neck with Garcia (hmm, "neck-and-neck" with Marilinda? lucky SOB!), and black candidate Jim Lawrence has been coming on very strong in the closing days. I could live with any of the three winning the nomination, so whichever one is most likely to take that seat away from General Kuster is the one I want to win. The last poll of potential November matchups had Garcia within 3 points of Kuster, Lambert within 6 and Lawrence within 8 but closing faster than the other two. I honestly don't know which of the three I will vote for when I get behind that curtain. I've changed my mind 12 times just since I started writing this opening thread!!!
*** MARILINDA GARCIA DECLARED WINNER OF REPUBLICAN NOMINATION FOR 2ND CD HOUSE SEAT ***
And there you have more information than you could possibly want to know about Tuesday's primaries in the Northeast. At least all will have EST early closing times, so presumably no 3 AM updates this time around.
The End. (until results start to come in)
This post was edited on 9/9/14 at 10:02 pm
Posted on 9/9/14 at 2:51 am to NHTIGER
quote:Informative and concise! Dude. You write better than 95% of the news staffers in the country.
NHTIGER
I regret I have only one up-vote to give to your posts!
This post was edited on 9/9/14 at 2:57 am
Posted on 9/9/14 at 5:03 am to Taxing Authority
quote:
You write better than 95% of the news staffers in the country.
I concur.
NHTIGER is a treasure on this board as far as election politics reporting goes. Solid work from him as usual.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 1:05 pm to NHTIGER
Mid-day update on turnout in NH and MA.
By noon, about 10% of voters had made their choices in NH, and only about 6% in Boston. Election officials in both states are looking for something in the 16-19% range by the time polls close this evening. Several close races and a LOT of money spent, great weather (it's 66 degrees with scattered clouds here in central NH right now), everything in place for a good turnout - except people.
Other than presidential primaries, primaries in all states tend to meet the same low-turnout fate. Granted, sometimes it's very understandable. For example, here in NH, the four major officeholders on the ballot today are either unopposed or have only token opposition, thus Dem voters have little incentive to show up and check the boxes. However, there are highly-contested races for all four positions on the Republican side and there are no sure bets in the bunch. Republicans and Independents can actually have a say in who opposes the incumbents in November.
So many people complain about the choices in November elections, yet many of those same people will not take the time to play a role in determining those November options. We have all seen how easily a November election is actually won or lost as a result of a weak general election candidate emerging from a sparsely attended primary. I don't get it now, never have, and never will.
As for myself, I'm still wrestling with the 3 choices for the Republican 2nd CD House seat, as I explained last night. My polling site is a mile away - one stop sign and one traffic light - and several hours remaining to get there. It's an important vote for me, because the winner could be decided by a razor-thin margin. It's rare that one's sentiments are split equally among 3 candidates, each with a combination of pluses and minuses that net them pretty much the same score from me. I'm not complaining, mind you, as way too often over the years I have felt that no one on a ballot was the "right" one.
Decisions, decisions ...
By noon, about 10% of voters had made their choices in NH, and only about 6% in Boston. Election officials in both states are looking for something in the 16-19% range by the time polls close this evening. Several close races and a LOT of money spent, great weather (it's 66 degrees with scattered clouds here in central NH right now), everything in place for a good turnout - except people.
Other than presidential primaries, primaries in all states tend to meet the same low-turnout fate. Granted, sometimes it's very understandable. For example, here in NH, the four major officeholders on the ballot today are either unopposed or have only token opposition, thus Dem voters have little incentive to show up and check the boxes. However, there are highly-contested races for all four positions on the Republican side and there are no sure bets in the bunch. Republicans and Independents can actually have a say in who opposes the incumbents in November.
So many people complain about the choices in November elections, yet many of those same people will not take the time to play a role in determining those November options. We have all seen how easily a November election is actually won or lost as a result of a weak general election candidate emerging from a sparsely attended primary. I don't get it now, never have, and never will.
As for myself, I'm still wrestling with the 3 choices for the Republican 2nd CD House seat, as I explained last night. My polling site is a mile away - one stop sign and one traffic light - and several hours remaining to get there. It's an important vote for me, because the winner could be decided by a razor-thin margin. It's rare that one's sentiments are split equally among 3 candidates, each with a combination of pluses and minuses that net them pretty much the same score from me. I'm not complaining, mind you, as way too often over the years I have felt that no one on a ballot was the "right" one.
Decisions, decisions ...
Posted on 9/9/14 at 6:10 pm to NHTIGER
Finally made my decision on my vote for my Congress[erson and went to the polls late this afternoon. Voted for Marilinda Garcia:
pic LINK
With all things being equal, as they, are, I decided that a young (31), attractive, Hispanic female has the best chance of defeating the older white woman. The GOP "old white guys" image is surely set aside by nominating her, neutralizing the elect-women trend in NH as an issue, and being able to attract young voters.
Results will be coming in before too long. The three candidates I voted for - Brown (Senate), Garcia (House) and Havenstein (Governor) could all win or they could all lose. No one is betting on any of these 4 races here.
Outside of NH, I will be reporting on the other races I described in my opening as results come in.
pic LINK
With all things being equal, as they, are, I decided that a young (31), attractive, Hispanic female has the best chance of defeating the older white woman. The GOP "old white guys" image is surely set aside by nominating her, neutralizing the elect-women trend in NH as an issue, and being able to attract young voters.
Results will be coming in before too long. The three candidates I voted for - Brown (Senate), Garcia (House) and Havenstein (Governor) could all win or they could all lose. No one is betting on any of these 4 races here.
Outside of NH, I will be reporting on the other races I described in my opening as results come in.
This post was edited on 9/9/14 at 6:29 pm
Posted on 9/9/14 at 7:43 pm to NHTIGER
Significant numbers are coming in for NH, and very early returns starting to come in for MA and RI.
In NH:
(All Republican primaries, as the 4 Dem incumbents are unchallenged)
U.S. Senate: 23% of precincts in
Scott Brown - 49.3%
Jim Rubens - 23.4%
Bob Smith - 23.2%
Governor (24% in):
Walt Havenstein - 56.5%
Andrew Hemingway - 37.2%
Congress, 1st CD (27% counted):
Frank Guinta- 49.5%
Dan Innis - 41.0%
Congress, 2nd CD (21% counted):
Marilinda Garcia - 50.6%
Gary Lambert - 26.4%
Jim Lawrence - 18.1%
To everyone's surprise up here, the favorites (as in strongest opponents for the general election) are leading comfortably at this point. I'll be one pleased Republican if all 4 races are won by those currently leading. Thanks, NH GOP !
-----------------
In the Delaware GOP primary to oppose incumbent Dem Sen. Chris Coons in November, favorite Wade leads Smink 76-24 with 44% of the vote counted and has been declared the winner.
That being the only significant race in Delaware, that state is closed out for the evening.
In NH:
(All Republican primaries, as the 4 Dem incumbents are unchallenged)
U.S. Senate: 23% of precincts in
Scott Brown - 49.3%
Jim Rubens - 23.4%
Bob Smith - 23.2%
Governor (24% in):
Walt Havenstein - 56.5%
Andrew Hemingway - 37.2%
Congress, 1st CD (27% counted):
Frank Guinta- 49.5%
Dan Innis - 41.0%
Congress, 2nd CD (21% counted):
Marilinda Garcia - 50.6%
Gary Lambert - 26.4%
Jim Lawrence - 18.1%
To everyone's surprise up here, the favorites (as in strongest opponents for the general election) are leading comfortably at this point. I'll be one pleased Republican if all 4 races are won by those currently leading. Thanks, NH GOP !
-----------------
In the Delaware GOP primary to oppose incumbent Dem Sen. Chris Coons in November, favorite Wade leads Smink 76-24 with 44% of the vote counted and has been declared the winner.
That being the only significant race in Delaware, that state is closed out for the evening.
This post was edited on 9/9/14 at 7:55 pm
Posted on 9/9/14 at 7:56 pm to NHTIGER
quote:
Andrew Cuomo
quote:
Lincoln Chafee
quote:
Herbert Claiborne Pell IV
frick all these 2nd and 3rd generation frickers.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 7:58 pm to NHTIGER
Scott Brown declared winner of Republican Senate primary in NH, will face incumbent Jeanne Shaheen in November.
Walt Havenstein declared winner of Republican Governor primary in NH, will face incumbent Dem. Governor Maggie Hassan in November.
Walt Havenstein declared winner of Republican Governor primary in NH, will face incumbent Dem. Governor Maggie Hassan in November.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 8:32 pm to NHTIGER
State Treasurer Gina Raimondo has been declared winner of the Democratic nomination for Governor in Rhode Island, defeating Angel Taveras and Claiborne Pell IV, who was endorsed by present Governor Lincoln Chafee.
This post was edited on 9/9/14 at 8:37 pm
Posted on 9/9/14 at 8:34 pm to NHTIGER
Good. frick Pell and Chafee
Posted on 9/9/14 at 8:44 pm to NHTIGER
In somewhat of an upset, Allan Fung has been declared the winner over Ken Block for the Republican nomination for Governor in Rhode Island. The general election will see a Fung vs. Raimondo contest in November.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 8:51 pm to NHTIGER
31-yr old Marilinda Garcia declared winner of CD#2 Republican nomination over Gary Lambert. She will battle incumbent Dem Annie Kuster in November. In the last poll taken for that match-up, Kuster led Garcia by 3 points. This may be another opportunity to turn a blue seat red in November.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 9:38 pm to NHTIGER
Incumbent Dem. Gov. Andrew Cuomo has won his party's nomination for reelection in November, and his chosen running mate, Kathy Hochul, has won the Dem nomination for Lt. Gov. Hochul's win prevented a potentially embarrassing situation for Cuomo in Nov. regarding his running mate situation.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 9:48 pm to NHTIGER
Former congressman Frank Guinta, who defeated Dem Carol Shea-Porter for NH's 1st CD House seat in 2010, and then lost the seat to her in 2012, has won the Republican nomination to again oppose Shea-Porter in November. Shea-Porter is considered very vulnerable and Guinta has been polling slightly ahead of her in recent polls. With his win tonight, both House seats and one Senate seat in NH now held by Dems should be close contests in November. This is the final NH race for the night, and in all 4 contests, the strongest candidates (based on head-to-head polling) emerged from the Republican primaries.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 9:58 pm to NHTIGER
Favorite Martha Coakley has been declared the winner in the Democratic primary for the nomination for Governor of Massachusetts, defeating Steve Grossman and Dan Berwick. Coakley has only 42% of the vote with 90% counted, a disappointing figure that could spell trouble for her going into her general election battle with Republican Charlie Baker in November. Even though "it's Massachusetts", some give Baker a shot at the win in November if he can finish strong.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 10:14 pm to NHTIGER
Final Call of the night and it's only 11:11 PM in the East!
Upstart Iraq war vet Seth Moulton, lightly regarded just a few weeks ago, has upset incumbent Democratic congressman John Tierney in the 6th CD of Massacusetts. Tierney had just barely survived a 2012 race with Republican Richard Tisei (he won by 1 point) and a rematch was expected in November. Tisei was unopposed tonight. This is still another potential New England takeaway of a Dem-held House seat. No MA congressman has lost a primary in 20 years, and Tierney is the first Dem congressman to lose a primary in 2014 (3 Republican incumbents lost their primaries.) With this being the last primary of the year, Tierney will hold that distinction as the only incumbent House Dem nationally to lose his primary.
That's it, everything's in, all done for the night, all done for the 2014 primary season.
Upstart Iraq war vet Seth Moulton, lightly regarded just a few weeks ago, has upset incumbent Democratic congressman John Tierney in the 6th CD of Massacusetts. Tierney had just barely survived a 2012 race with Republican Richard Tisei (he won by 1 point) and a rematch was expected in November. Tisei was unopposed tonight. This is still another potential New England takeaway of a Dem-held House seat. No MA congressman has lost a primary in 20 years, and Tierney is the first Dem congressman to lose a primary in 2014 (3 Republican incumbents lost their primaries.) With this being the last primary of the year, Tierney will hold that distinction as the only incumbent House Dem nationally to lose his primary.
That's it, everything's in, all done for the night, all done for the 2014 primary season.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 11:11 pm to NHTIGER
Posted on 9/9/14 at 11:31 pm to Taxing Authority
back at ya, and thanks to you and to Sentrius for the kind words earlier in the thread.
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