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Message
Nate Silver - GOP Favored To Take Senate
Posted on 9/4/14 at 10:12 am
Posted on 9/4/14 at 10:12 am
LINK
quote:
But if you’re looking for a headline, we have two. First, Republicans are favored to take the Senate, at least in our view; the FiveThirtyEight forecast model gives them a 64 percent chance of doing so.
The reasons for the GOP advantage are pretty straightforward. Midterm elections are usually poor for the president’s party, and the Senate contests this year are in states where, on average, President Obama won just 46 percent of the vote in 2012.1 Democrats are battling a hangover effect in these states, most of which were last contested in 2008, a high-water mark for the party. On the basis of polling and the other indicators our model evaluates, Republicans are more likely than not to win the six seats they need to take over the Senate. This isn’t news, exactly; the same conditions held way back in March.
An equally important theme is the high degree of uncertainty around that outcome. A large number of states remain competitive, and Democrats could easily retain the Senate. It’s also possible that the landscape could shift further in Republicans’ direction. Our model regards a true Republican wave as possible: It gives the party almost a 25 percent chance of finishing with 54 or more Senate seats once all the votes are counted.
6
Posted on 9/4/14 at 10:17 am to DeltaDoc
Silver;dr
Posted on 9/4/14 at 10:20 am to a want
Nate Silver knows his shite
Posted on 9/4/14 at 10:22 am to jamboybarry
Well he's been right a lot before, to the board's dismay. Watch him be wrong now.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 10:23 am to genro
That's actually a low estimate. I saw 89% from somebody a week or two ago.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 10:26 am to a want
quote:
That's actually a low estimate. I saw 89% from somebody a week or two ago.
I don't think it is anywhere near that high, personally. I think a lot of the close races, including the race in Louisiana, will go to the Democrats. I think Dirty Mary wins by at least 5% in LA.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 10:40 am to a want
+1 for you sir 64% is better than a toss up I suppose
Posted on 9/4/14 at 10:42 am to DeltaDoc
Democrats done. It's over.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 10:57 am to DeltaDoc
I remember hearing Dems very confident about the 2012 election 'because we have a great ground game in place.'
That means 'got out the vote'... or you could call it 'fraud'.
I have not heard any Dems crowing about confidence in their ground game for this Fall.
That means 'got out the vote'... or you could call it 'fraud'.
I have not heard any Dems crowing about confidence in their ground game for this Fall.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 11:00 am to a want
quote:
That's actually a low estimate. I saw 89% from somebody a week or two ago.
I'm surprised anyone would peg it that high. Who estimated 89%?
This post was edited on 9/4/14 at 11:01 am
Posted on 9/4/14 at 11:04 am to Zach
That is because of our flawed electoral college. The crooked dems can specifically target 3 or 4 states in a presidential election, many people stay home.
Every vote should count.
Every vote should count.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 11:05 am to Zach
quote:
I have not heard any Dems crowing about confidence in their ground game for this Fall.
Yeah, it's going to be brutal. However there is always hope for Ds as long as there are Rs.
Like maybe a group of people in Dallas could protest the signing of Michael Sams....inevitabley some dumb arse R congressman will say something stupid and piss off virtually everybody except the religious right....who will double down and say something stupider and piss off everybody more.... and we'll have a contest again.
I think that's the entirety of the D's plan.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 11:07 am to S.E.C. Crazy
quote:That would make the problem worse. The campaigning would be limited to only the major cities, for both parties, forever.
That is because of our flawed electoral college. The crooked dems can specifically target 3 or 4 states in a presidential election, many people stay home.
Every vote should count.
This post was edited on 9/4/14 at 11:08 am
Posted on 9/4/14 at 11:14 am to DeltaDoc
I wanted to hate so much during the 2012 election but damn he was right on.
Still hate him because he's that damn good.
Still hate him because he's that damn good.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 11:17 am to Zach
quote:
I remember hearing Dems very confident about the 2012 election 'because we have a great ground game in place.'
That means 'got out the vote'... or you could call it 'fraud'.
I have not heard any Dems crowing about confidence in their ground game for this Fall.
if dems could orchestrate fraud in 2012, what would stop them from doing it in 2014? that makes zero sense.
obama's ground game was fricking stellar in 2012, romney relied on yard signs to GOTV and that didn't work too well.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 11:35 am to Hawkeye95
Yea busing to the polls and using social media isn't fraud. Romney just sucked at it...gotta get with the times. The GOP could do the same with poor and rural whites in swing states who are largely conservative and religious.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 12:28 pm to constant cough
quote:
Democrats done. It's over.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 12:44 pm to DeltaDoc
quote:Maddow last night was claiming an 85% chance Democrat senate
the FiveThirtyEight forecast model gives them a 64 percent chance of doing so.
Posted on 9/4/14 at 1:06 pm to Taxing Authority
quote:
quote:
the FiveThirtyEight forecast model gives them a 64 percent chance of doing so.
Maddow last night was claiming an 85% chance Democrat senate
Bottom line is there are 60 days before the election and a LOT of things could happen between now and then. There are so many tight races involved, and all of them capable of going either way based upon the smallest of gaffes, incidents or events between now and Election Day, either Silver or Maddow could be right. One party could win half a dozen states by 1% or less - but so could the other party.
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