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Unemployment claims continue to drop

Posted on 8/7/14 at 10:33 am
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
90570 posts
Posted on 8/7/14 at 10:33 am
quote:

Fewer people sought U.S. unemployment benefits last week, as jobless claims remain at relatively low levels that point toward stronger economic growth. Weekly applications for unemployment aid fell 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 289,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. The prior week's was revised up slightly to 303,000. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, fell 4,000 to 293,500. That's the lowest average since February 2006, almost two years before the Great Recession began at the end of 2007.


On phone so can't link article. It's on cbsnews.com
Posted by Homesick Tiger
Greenbrier, AR
Member since Nov 2006
54207 posts
Posted on 8/7/14 at 10:37 am to
Up last week, down this week? How is that a continuance?
Posted by Hawkeye95
Member since Dec 2013
20293 posts
Posted on 8/7/14 at 10:38 am to
great news if its true and holds on.
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
51571 posts
Posted on 8/7/14 at 10:39 am to
I was listening to the numbers on my ride into work this morning. One thing I heard was that salaries haven't risen. One thing I didn't hear was whether these new jobs were part-time or full-time.
Posted by Wtodd
Tampa, FL
Member since Oct 2013
67482 posts
Posted on 8/7/14 at 10:39 am to
Not great news: more people have just quit looking for work and Gubmet money is easy to come by.
Posted by Quidam65
Q Continuum
Member since Jun 2010
19307 posts
Posted on 8/7/14 at 10:41 am to
Once you get on the disability train, no need to file unemployment claims.
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 8/7/14 at 10:41 am to
quote:

Weekly applications for unemployment aid fell 14,000


quote:

The prior week's was revised up slightly to 303,000



quote:

The four-week average, a less volatile measure, fell 4,000



So the 4 week average fell by 4,000...WHICH INCLUDES THE 14,000 FROM THIS WEEK!

Nevermind the previous weeks were all adjusted up as the 4 week average is only down 4k.

Jesus, for anyone with a modicum of mathematical skills this is pathetic spin.
Posted by bigwheel
Lake Charles
Member since Feb 2008
6491 posts
Posted on 8/7/14 at 10:45 am to
next they will tell us inflation is under control, another myth
Posted by BaylorTiger
Member since Nov 2006
2083 posts
Posted on 8/7/14 at 10:46 am to
Just to scratch the surface of what is going on...

Part Time Employment for Economic Reasons

Part Time vs Full Time

While employment is portraying a picture of imporovement the quality of improvement is what leads to the debate of is this actually the sign of a healthy economic recovery.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
90570 posts
Posted on 8/7/14 at 10:48 am to
What caught my attention is the average is lowest since 2006 before the recession.

I would like to see the labor participation rate to find out if people are getting jobs or stopped looking for work. Last month showed strong hiring so if that is continuing this month then things are looking better
Posted by BaylorTiger
Member since Nov 2006
2083 posts
Posted on 8/7/14 at 10:54 am to
Just some quick numbers, I don't have time to get the support...

Labor Force since around 2k8 is down about -240,000...however, working age population is up about 2,400,000.

There are SO MANY factors at play here...make no mistake the labor force was expected to shrink due to the baby boomers but i've seen estimates from conservatives and liberal with the range being attributed anywhere from 25% to 50% of this Labor Force Drop (2,400,00 - 233,000 = 1.6mm net labor force drop)...fairly wide range.

However, at the best, that still leaves a 50% unexpected drop in the labor force...I beleive that can be explained with these factors:

1.Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs
2.People retire because they cannot find jobs
3.People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting a job
4.People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job
5.Disability and disability fraud


Not any ONE factor is responsible for this but a combination of them are.
This post was edited on 8/7/14 at 10:57 am
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
90570 posts
Posted on 8/7/14 at 11:01 am to
The school issue concerns me. If the economy doesn't rebound soon then all those kids staying in college longer will have massive student loan debt and no good jobs to get to pay it off
Posted by BobBoucher
Member since Jan 2008
16726 posts
Posted on 8/7/14 at 11:07 am to
quote:

If the economy doesn't rebound soon


How long did it take for the recovery of the great depression? wasnt it like 7-10 years, depending on how you defined a recovery?

If this recession was roughly half as bad, youd expect revovery around 4-5 years which is right about where we are today.

just trying to put it in perspective. Anyone who expected a bouce back in a few years is dilusional.
This post was edited on 8/7/14 at 11:08 am
Posted by idlewatcher
County Jail
Member since Jan 2012
79069 posts
Posted on 8/7/14 at 11:10 am to
quote:


Part Time Employment for Economic Reasons


In addition to not having to cover ACA. I know a few people who have been "reshuffled" in their companies to accommodate part time workers.
Posted by RockyMtnTigerWDE
War Damn Eagle Dad!
Member since Oct 2010
105404 posts
Posted on 8/7/14 at 11:19 am to
quote:

If you aren't engaged enough in being a citizen to possess a photo ID, then you have no business voting anyway.


I kind of like this sig quote.
Posted by BaylorTiger
Member since Nov 2006
2083 posts
Posted on 8/7/14 at 11:41 am to
quote:

If this recession was roughly half as bad, youd expect revovery around 4-5 years which is right about where we are today.


I've seen numerous comparisons of post-recession numbers, not just great recession, and we are in WAY worse shape at this point and time. I've never seen anyone try and refute that.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
36014 posts
Posted on 8/7/14 at 11:46 am to
quote:

Anyone who expected a bouce back in a few years is dilusional.


Yes, and many here have stated that Obama was and still is delusional.
Posted by 13SaintTiger
Isle of Capri
Member since Sep 2011
18315 posts
Posted on 8/7/14 at 12:04 pm to
quote:

I've seen numerous comparisons of post-recession numbers, not just great recession, and we are in WAY worse shape at this point and time. I've never seen anyone try and refute that.


Any facts to support your claims?
Posted by S.E.C. Crazy
Alabama
Member since Feb 2013
7905 posts
Posted on 8/7/14 at 12:13 pm to
No it doesn't, just because the government uses a BS formula doesn't mean unemployment is dropping. And anyone who doesn't acknowledge this is dumber than a brick.

61.7 percent of able bodied adults are working.

Just because someone gives up looking for a job via the government, doesn't mean they aren't looking or that they aren't unemployed.
Posted by Hawkeye95
Member since Dec 2013
20293 posts
Posted on 8/7/14 at 12:41 pm to
quote:

No it doesn't, just because the government uses a BS formula doesn't mean unemployment is dropping. And anyone who doesn't acknowledge this is dumber than a brick.


claims is a hard number. It can't be fudged.

Considering for the last few years we have been flirting with 400k, getting down below 300k is good.

And this is by far the biggest economic slowdown we have experienced since the great depression. Its natural that its taking this long to recover.
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