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This is how Mary wins
Posted on 7/15/14 at 10:08 am
Posted on 7/15/14 at 10:08 am
Explained by Elliot Stonecipher in an interview this morning.
A couple of weeks before the election Obama announces that he is giving the OK for the Keystone Pipeline with "I had doubts about the pipeline but due to the compelling arguments of Mary Landrieu I was persuaded by her."
Mary then does ad blitzes about how she is the most powerful person in the Senate and La. can't afford to lose her clout.
Obvious arguments...
Would Obama break his promise to the environmentalists? Sure. His word means nothing.
Will environmentalists stop donations? Sure. He doesn't care. He's not running again.
Will it sway enough votes to give Landrieu a win without a runoff? Combined with enough multiple voters and dead voters... yes, it will be just enough.
Why wouldn't Obama wait and use the strategy in the runoff? Because he can get a two-fer in the primary. If there's another Dem (Joe Blow) running in a state that wants the pipeline then the narrative will be "I was persuaded by Mary Landrieu and Joe Blow."
A couple of weeks before the election Obama announces that he is giving the OK for the Keystone Pipeline with "I had doubts about the pipeline but due to the compelling arguments of Mary Landrieu I was persuaded by her."
Mary then does ad blitzes about how she is the most powerful person in the Senate and La. can't afford to lose her clout.
Obvious arguments...
Would Obama break his promise to the environmentalists? Sure. His word means nothing.
Will environmentalists stop donations? Sure. He doesn't care. He's not running again.
Will it sway enough votes to give Landrieu a win without a runoff? Combined with enough multiple voters and dead voters... yes, it will be just enough.
Why wouldn't Obama wait and use the strategy in the runoff? Because he can get a two-fer in the primary. If there's another Dem (Joe Blow) running in a state that wants the pipeline then the narrative will be "I was persuaded by Mary Landrieu and Joe Blow."
This post was edited on 7/15/14 at 10:09 am
13
Posted on 7/15/14 at 10:10 am to Zach
Honestly, I hope this is Mary's only chance to win because, while I agree Obama's word is meaningless, he's not approving Keystone IMHO.
Posted on 7/15/14 at 10:14 am to Holden Caulfield
Do you think stopping the pipeline is a higher priority to Obama than getting to appoint one or two more Sotomayors to the Supreme Court? A GOP Senate will stop him.
Posted on 7/15/14 at 10:15 am to Zach
This is going to happen IMO
Posted on 7/15/14 at 10:16 am to Zach
quote:
Combined with enough multiple voters and dead voters... yes, it will be just enough.
Posted on 7/15/14 at 10:16 am to Zach
That's a good question. I think it has to be speculated, from Obama's perspective, on the chances of one of the conservative justices stepping down in the next two years.
I see each of them holding on for dear life until 2016.
Posted on 7/15/14 at 10:16 am to Zach
quote:
This is how Mary wins
I have come to the realization that once again the LaGOP is going to freak around and not run good campaigns and mary will win
Posted on 7/15/14 at 10:18 am to WeeWee
This will not just help Landrieu but also Begich in Alaska, Grimes in Kentucky
This can help 3 democrats
This can help 3 democrats
Posted on 7/15/14 at 10:19 am to goldennugget
Mary wins even without all these political games, despite what early polls might be saying. I'd be shocked and very happy at the same time if Cassidy or Manness pulls off the upset. I don't think either one gets within 5 points of her on election day.
Posted on 7/15/14 at 10:20 am to jdd48
Are you nuts? Liberal John Kennedy almost beat her...
Posted on 7/15/14 at 10:21 am to jdd48
quote:
Mary wins even without all these political games, despite what early polls might be saying. I'd be shocked and very happy at the same time if Cassidy or Manness pulls off the upset. I don't think either one gets within 5 points of her on election day.
I agree with this. I don't think there is a strong enough canidate to even get close to her which is a disappointment. I wish we had a canidate that could take off with, what should be, an easier win but we don't
Posted on 7/15/14 at 10:21 am to goldennugget
quote:
This will not just help Landrieu but also Begich in Alaska, Grimes in Kentucky
Thanks. I knew there were some in the same boat as Mary but did not know their names.
Posted on 7/15/14 at 10:22 am to Zach
n obvious play, and most will fall for it.
But will Obama do the obvious????
So far he has proven to be very rigid and apolitical when it comes to helping out the rest of his party.
But will Obama do the obvious????
So far he has proven to be very rigid and apolitical when it comes to helping out the rest of his party.
Posted on 7/15/14 at 10:22 am to Zach
I can absoilutely see this, and I've heard it before.
So, what's better for LA?
1) Keystone Pipeline
2) Landriew out of office
3) Keystone Pipeline, Landrieu wins, GOP takes enough other seats to get to 51 (possible but unlikely)
So, what's better for LA?
1) Keystone Pipeline
2) Landriew out of office
3) Keystone Pipeline, Landrieu wins, GOP takes enough other seats to get to 51 (possible but unlikely)
Posted on 7/15/14 at 10:25 am to TJG210
quote:
Are you nuts? Liberal John Kennedy almost beat her...
52 - 45 in that election. That's not almost beating anyone.
Posted on 7/15/14 at 10:26 am to Zach
very possible scenario. i always thought obama liked the idea of keystone but couldn't get it past the base. with the senate on the line, he might be able to use that as justification.
Posted on 7/15/14 at 10:29 am to Zach
What Obama and Harry Reid should really do is allow the pipeline to come up for a vote in the Senate and allow a few democrats facing reelection in red states to vote for it. The pipeline will pass and Obama can feel free to veto it. Those red state dems can say they fought for it, Obama doesn't have to approve to pipeline so he doesn't lose the support of the greenies or Berkshire-Hathaway which owns the railroads, and the only people who would stop supporting Obama for veto-ing the pipeline are the same people who already despise him.
Posted on 7/15/14 at 10:33 am to kingbob
The only problem with that scenario is it does not allow Mary to counter the campaign theme that she 'has no clout'. Clout means you actually have an effect on policy.
Posted on 7/15/14 at 10:36 am to LSUFanHouston
quote:
So, what's better for LA?
1) Keystone Pipeline
2) Landriew out of office
3) Keystone Pipeline, Landrieu wins, GOP takes enough other seats to get to 51 (possible but unlikely)
Interesting question
Posted on 7/15/14 at 10:37 am to Zach
Mary does have a lot of influence, she helped pass Obamacare, right? That was big.
She voted for the Obama appointments didn't she? she helped them get in office.
She is a key player in the Dem machine. We need to keep repeating that fact.
You can't let her have it both ways. She can't be have a lot of influence and let all this crap pass unless she is really FOR it all, right?
She voted for the Obama appointments didn't she? she helped them get in office.
She is a key player in the Dem machine. We need to keep repeating that fact.
You can't let her have it both ways. She can't be have a lot of influence and let all this crap pass unless she is really FOR it all, right?
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