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Article - "China thinks it can defeat America in battle"
Posted on 7/7/14 at 10:47 am
Posted on 7/7/14 at 10:47 am
its a pretty interesting read.
LINK
TLDR version: We got subs. Taiwan safe.
LINK
TLDR version: We got subs. Taiwan safe.
This post was edited on 7/7/14 at 10:48 am
Posted on 7/7/14 at 10:48 am to BobBoucher
quote:
China thinks iit can defeat America in battle
ROR
Posted on 7/7/14 at 10:50 am to BobBoucher
Where would we be fighting?
Human wave attacks work if we're fighting against them with boots on the ground, as Korea proved.
When we can hit them with a MOAB from 30,000+ feet, though? Not so much.
Human wave attacks work if we're fighting against them with boots on the ground, as Korea proved.
When we can hit them with a MOAB from 30,000+ feet, though? Not so much.
Posted on 7/7/14 at 10:51 am to BobBoucher
China thinks a lot of shite that isn't true.
Posted on 7/7/14 at 10:53 am to cubsfan5150
quote:
China thinks a lot of shite that isn't true.
Good, let's keep it that way.
Posted on 7/7/14 at 10:54 am to BobBoucher
Only if we invade them. They have the resources and manpower to withstand a war on their home front.
Their Air Force and Navy are shitty compared to ours. We could pound dat arse without a single boot on the ground.
Its all irrelevant though since the only wars between the 2 will be of the proxy type.
Their Air Force and Navy are shitty compared to ours. We could pound dat arse without a single boot on the ground.
Its all irrelevant though since the only wars between the 2 will be of the proxy type.
Posted on 7/7/14 at 10:55 am to BobBoucher
quote:
"The economic model that propelled China through three decades of meteoric growth appears unsustainable," Andrew Erickson, a Naval War College analyst, told the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
Yeah, China has some long range issues.
Everyone predicting that China will dominate this century needs to rethink that.
Posted on 7/7/14 at 10:57 am to BobBoucher
On Chinese soil? they absolutely could. On the open ocean? Not a chance. On American soil? Not a prayer. On neutral ground?...interdasting
Posted on 7/7/14 at 10:59 am to BobBoucher
Good article. Thanks for posting. One of the more interesting comments;
I see this as the more realistic scenario. If China quickly overwhelmed Taiwan then the US (under the current administration) simply calls it a day and refuses to intervene. All as long as no American blood is spilled.
quote:
The knock-on effects of deterring America could be world-changing. "Backing away from our commitments to protect Taiwan, Japan, or the Philippines would be tantamount to ceding East Asia to China's domination," Roger Cliff, a fellow at the Atlantic Council, said at the same U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission hearing on Jan. 30.
Worse, the world's liberal economic order — and indeed, the whole notion of democracy — could suffer irreparable harm. "The United States has both a moral and a material interest in a world in which democratic nations can survive and thrive," Cliff asserted.
I see this as the more realistic scenario. If China quickly overwhelmed Taiwan then the US (under the current administration) simply calls it a day and refuses to intervene. All as long as no American blood is spilled.
Posted on 7/7/14 at 11:07 am to kingbob
Invading the Chinese mainland would be the second most difficult military challenge in the world.
Invading the U.S. would be first. The whole of the world doesn't possess the combined military resources to launch an amphibious attack of our mainland. Let's say however that some country was able to establish a limited beachhead on the East Coast. They then tried to move West and cross the Appalachians. Let's say they were thwarted by the mountains and therefore took a more southwesterly route to go around and make inroads in the South. They then try to conquer Georgia/Alabama/Mississippi. Absolute hilarity would ensue. This would make conquering tribal Afghanistan seem like playing duck hunt. The Chinese would be utterly confused and terrified as awesome Redneck America unleashed guerrilla warfare to a level the world has never seen.
Invading the U.S. would be first. The whole of the world doesn't possess the combined military resources to launch an amphibious attack of our mainland. Let's say however that some country was able to establish a limited beachhead on the East Coast. They then tried to move West and cross the Appalachians. Let's say they were thwarted by the mountains and therefore took a more southwesterly route to go around and make inroads in the South. They then try to conquer Georgia/Alabama/Mississippi. Absolute hilarity would ensue. This would make conquering tribal Afghanistan seem like playing duck hunt. The Chinese would be utterly confused and terrified as awesome Redneck America unleashed guerrilla warfare to a level the world has never seen.
Posted on 7/7/14 at 11:14 am to MetArl15
All of this is irrelevant because our navy and air force would absolutely dismantle theirs in a matter of hours. The biggest question lies with political will. Do we have the political will to defend Taiwan with American lives? Do the Chinese have the political will to respond to U.S. intervention with nuclear weapons? Does the U.S. risk such a counter and send a preemptive strike of nuclear weapons? A Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Japan, the Phillipeans, and/or South Korea would open a real Pandora's Box for the entire world.
Posted on 7/7/14 at 11:14 am to BobBoucher
Just how many red lines would they have to cross before we would do anything???
Posted on 7/7/14 at 11:16 am to MetArl15
quote:
Invading the Chinese mainland would be the second most difficult military challenge in the world.
Invading the U.S. would be the first.
That is not the premise of the article. It is a proxy war over Taiwan. China calculating how quickly they could overcome the island and consolidate their gains with minimal U.S. involvement. I think they are actually right. Could be done in the current political environment.
Posted on 7/7/14 at 11:16 am to Morgan56
Or they could just invade the us on our southwest border
Posted on 7/7/14 at 11:18 am to BobBoucher
Invasions and occupations are tremendously expensive.
Wouldn't it be cheaper for China to just buy Taiwanese stuff from the people already there?
Wouldn't it be cheaper for China to just buy Taiwanese stuff from the people already there?
Posted on 7/7/14 at 11:18 am to Wolfhound45
quote:
That is not the premise of the article. It is a proxy war over Taiwan. China calculating how quickly they could overcome the island and consolidate their gains with minimal U.S. involvement. I think they are actually right. Could be done in the current political environment.
They're absolutely right...given that our administration doesn't learn of their plan with fair warning and/or chooses not to put in place strategic air and naval assets in order to counter it. We could sink their entire navy and annihilate their air force in a matter of hours. China can't invade any islands without both.
They don't have to defeat us in battle, we only have to choose not to fight.
This post was edited on 7/7/14 at 11:20 am
Posted on 7/7/14 at 11:22 am to kingbob
quote:
They don't have to defeat us in battle, we only have to choose not to fight.
This.
And I believe our administration would fold like a five dollar card table even if we had advance notice. Would cut our losses and call it a day.
Posted on 7/7/14 at 11:22 am to roguetiger15
quote:
Or they could just invade the us on our southwest border
:rimshot:
Posted on 7/7/14 at 11:24 am to Wolfhound45
quote:
That is not the premise of the article. It is a proxy war over Taiwan. China calculating how quickly they could overcome the island and consolidate their gains with minimal U.S. involvement. I think they are actually right. Could be done in the current political environment.
There have been several times in the past 50 years where China could have invaded Taiwan while we were distracted (post 9/11 for instance, or 2009, or late 70s). They have yet to do so, I think they are just going to play the waiting game and once the mainland modernizes enough, have Taiwan join them voluntarily.
They could probably take over the island in a few hours. Its not very big, and we are not very close.
I say let them have it.
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