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Preview: Miss State vs LSU – Fri 6:30 (CST/CSS) | Sat 6:30 (ESPNU) | Sun 1 (CST)
Posted on 4/4/14 at 2:16 am
Posted on 4/4/14 at 2:16 am
The Fighting Tigers are back home in The Box, where they have compiled a 17-2 record including an SEC series win over Georgia 2 weeks ago. It’s been rough going for LSU (21-8-1, 3-5-1) since that series, with the Tigers losing all 4 games on a road trip to Tulane and Florida. Struggling for 5 innings on Tuesday night, the LSU offense finally came alive and busted out to a 10-3 win over McNeese on Wednesday night. This weekend LSU welcomes back an improving and hot Mississippi State team for what is the best weekend series on the 2014 home schedule. MSU (20-10, 6-3) is a team that has won each of its first three SEC series this season and sits tied atop the SEC standings, while LSU has dug itself into a hole of last place in the West.
In its history, LSU has played no team more than the Bulldogs with Friday night being the 374th meeting between the teams. MSU leads the all time series 200-172-1, but LSU has not lost a series to State under coach Paul Mainieri. The tension is as high as ever in this rivalry with some bad blood in the Sunday matchup last season. With LSU winning the first 2 games of the series at Dudy Noble, State pitcher Kendall Graveman threw a fastball straight at the head of LSU star Mason Katz, who was 3 for 7 with 3 HRs in the series. The LSU dugout erupted, and Mainieri and MSU head coach John Cohen exchanged words. Graveman remained in the game, eventually earning the victory to salvage the final game of that series. Mainieri commented on the incident “I could understand why they’re frustrated. I mean, we beat them every year and they get tired of getting beat by us.” Neither player involved in the incident is on the team this season, but this weekend should prove to be another great chapter in the rivalry.
Friday night’s game will start at 6:30pm and be broadcast on CST/CSS. Saturday’s game will also be televised, but this time on ESPNU and first pitch is also at 6:30pm. The first pitch on Sunday is at 1:00pm and will be televised on traditional CST. All 3 games this weekend will be broadcast on ESPN3.com with Sunday’s game blacked out in the CST broadcast zone (map unofficial).
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Record: 20-10
Conference: 6-3, t-1st SEC west
Non-Conf: 14-7
Home: 17-5
Away: 3-2
Neutral: 0-3
Team Overview:
The 2014 College World Series runners-up don the colors maroon and white and hail from Starkville, MS. The Bulldogs finished just 3rd in the SEC West last season but hosted and won a regional before beating up on the #6 national seed Virginia on their way to Omaha. In all, State won 12 of 14 postseason games to earn a birth in the CWS Championship series before dropping a pair to UCLA. It was State’s 9th trip to Omaha and the best finish in school history. The 2014 club lost a balance of pitching and offense, but like LSU they lost the heart of their lineup in Hunter Renfroe and Adam Frazier. That didn’t stop any of the major media outlets from selecting these 2 teams to finish at the top of the SEC West standings once again. The Bulldogs are a fairly balanced team with an excellent defense. The lineup anchor this season is Wes Rea, who is hitting just .231 vs LSU in his career.
Team Stat Comparison (LSU in parentheses)
Runs/game scored: 5.3 (6.0)
Runs/game allowed: 3.2 (2.5)
Team ERA: 2.76 (2.29)
Opponent ERA: 4.59 (4.91)
Team BA: .270 (.274)
Opponent BA: .242 (.211)
Team Fielding %: .985 (.979)
Opponent Fielding %: .961 (.965)
Good wins: Western Carolina (2-1)
Bad losses: Holy Cross (2-2)
SEC Series Wins: @ Georgia (2-1), vs Vanderbilt (2-1), vs Arkansas (2-1)
SEC Series Losses: None
Starting Pitching:
Mississippi State will be starting their fourth different Friday night guy. Preston Brown has been the guy for the last couple of weeks but experienced some shoulder soreness during the week. He will be reevaluated on Saturday and could be available to start on Sunday. Taking his place will be Ross Mitchell, a junior southpaw who has actually developed into the staff ace over the last 3 weekends. Mitchell was 13-0 last season as a reliever with a 1.53 ERA in 34 appearances. This season he started out as a reliever, but due to the ineffectiveness of the starters, Cohen decided to start him on Saturday in SEC play. That gamble as paid major dividends, and Mitchell is 3-0 in the SEC including 2 complete game wins allowing just 4 runs in over 25 innings against UGA, Vandy, and Arkansas. In an effort to play some matchups, Paul Mainieri has shuffled his starting rotation a couple of times, but as of now is expected to toss ace Aaron Nola into his usual slot. LSU will probably go with a heavy right handed lineup since leftys are hitting under .150 against Mitchell this season.
On Saturday, MSU will send out Trevor Fitts, who is the only Bulldog pitcher to start a game every weekend this whole season. Fits won’t walk a lot of guys but will allow his share of hits. The batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against Trevor Fitts is a very high .360 while the rest of the team’s BABIP is a combined .315. This is a good matchup for LSU since the Tigers have by far the fewest strikeouts in the SEC.
Neither team has a starter announced for Sunday. It could be any of the pitchers listed below.
Cohen: “We know for sure that Brown is not going to pitch on Friday night. Ross [Mitchell] really wants to pitch on Friday night, but we’re going to wait and see how he feels on Friday. Right now we would probably go Ross [on Friday], and then Trevor [Fitts] on Saturday and wait and see how Brown is doing on Sunday. We could deviate from that if Ross wakes up on Friday and his arm is not where he wants it to be then we for sure are going to give him another day.”
continued in next post.....
This post was edited on 4/6/14 at 1:47 pm
4
Posted on 4/4/14 at 2:17 am to AstroTiger
Friday's Pitching Matchup:
Jr. LHP Ross Mitchell (5-1, 1.55 ERA, 52.1 IP, 35 H, 9 ER, 13 BB, 27 K, .194 OBA)
Jr. RHP Aaron Nola (5-1, 0.55 ERA, 49.0 IP, 25 H, 3 ER, 9 BB, 61 K, .151 OBA)
Saturday's Pitching Matchup:
Jr. RHP Trevor Fitts (2-1, 3.09 ERA, 35.0 IP, 37 H, 12 ER, 6 BB, 40 K, .264 OBA)
Fr. LHP Jared Poché (5-2, 2.61 ERA, 38.0 IP, 28 H, 11 ER, 12 BB, 25 K, .209 OBA)
Sunday's Pitching Matchup: TBA
MSU contenders:
Preston Brown – Friday night guy last 2 weekends, suffering from sore shoulder, will start if healthy
Brandon Woodruff – opened season as Friday night starter, made 4 starts
Dakota Hudson – 4 Sunday starts
Ben Bracewell – 2 Friday night starts & 2 midweek starts
Austin Sexton – 2 Saturday starts & 1 midweek start
Relief Pitching:
Jonathan Holder is an All-American closer, who tied the SEC record with 21 saves last season, but has battled through a finger injury in the early part of this season that affected his production. He has still been a major part of the bullpen with 4 saves in 9 appearances and a 2.60 ERA in 17.1 innings all in relief. Holder has a career ERA of 1.44 and 34 saves. The most dependable guy on the staff this season has been Jacob Lindgren who leads the team with 10 appearances in relief allowing just 10 hits for a team best .149 average against and 0.93 ERA. Lindgren has struck out a ridiculous 37 batters in 19.1 innings of relief work. The 6 foot southpaw was an 11th round draft pick out of high school in the summer of 2011. Myles Gentry has been a main bullpen contributor the last couple of seasons. He’s thrown 13.2 innings allowed 10 hits and struck out 14 batters in 9 appearances.
Mississippi State Offense: (LSU numbers in parentheses)
Team BA: .270 (.274)
Team OBP: .378 (.364)
Team SLG: .336 (.386)
Mississippi State lost its top two offensive producers from last year’s team. With that said, the 2014 offense has been pretty consistent in terms of hit for average top to bottom even though the overall average has fallen. This is a disciplined team without a lot of power, but they find ways on base with 174 walks/HBPs in 30 games. Brett Pirtle is the only position player to have started all of the team’s 30 games and has a team-high 36 hits on the season. CT Bradford has been battling a hip injury and will likely be sidelined for at least the Friday night game or longer. His replacement, Derrick Armstrong has made a big splash hitting for a .328 average in 16 starts and knocked out 10 hits in SEC play. Wes Rea is the big junior first baseman. He’s the biggest power threat in the lineup. On the bases, State is pretty aggressive and effective in taking bags. VIckerson, Henderson, and Armstrong are the guys to watch closely on the base paths. As a team, State has 45 stolen bases and a 72% success rate. LSU has just 24 stolen bases on the season.
Mississippi State Projected Lineup:
1) LF Jake Vickerson (.265 avg, 4 2B, 10 RBI, 20 R, 13 BB, 11 K, 7-9 SB)
2) DH Alex Detz (.234 avg, 2 2B, 2 HR, 19 RBI, 16 R, 17 BB, 16 K, 3-6 SB)
3) 1B Wes Rea (.283 avg, 4 2B, 3 HR, 25 RBI, 15 R, 23 BB, 27 K, 0-0 SB)
4) 2B Brett Pirtle (.316 avg, 3 2B, 3B, 13 RBI, 15 R, 5 BB, 11 K, 3-5 SB)
5) SS Seth Heck (.254 avg, 3 2B, 12 RBI, 12 R, 11 BB, 6 K, 2-2 SB)
6) CF Derrick Armstrong (.328 avg, 2B, 10 RBI, 13 R, 8 BB, 14 K, 9-10 SB)
7) RF Demarcus Henderson (.333 avg, 2 2B, 5 RBI, 13 R, 14 BB, 13 K, 9-9 SB)
8) C Gavin Collins (.275 avg, 5 2B, 3 RBI, 6 R, 4 BB, 3 K, 0-1 SB)
9) 3B Matthew Britton (.135 avg, 2B, 6 RBI, 11 R, 12 BB, 11 K, 2-2 SB)
Other guys we will see:
CF C.T. Bradford (.323 avg, 2 2B, 4 3B, 12 RBI, 7 R, 2 BB, 7 K, 2-4 SB) – out with hip injury
C Zack Randolph (.250 avg, 9 RBI, 7 R, 4 BB, 4 K, 2-3 SB)
DH Daniel Garner (.250 avg, 2 2B, 4 RBI, 2 R, 2 BB, 13 K, 0-0 SB)
OF Cody Brown (.242 avg, 2B, 3B, 6 RBI, 8 R, 15 BB, 10 K, 2-3 SB)
Defense:
The State defense has been superb this year fielding .985 as a team. Middle infielders Pirtle and Heck have just 4 errors between them. MSU has turned 25 double plays on the season, and LSU has turned 19 DPs. Gavin Collins is the main catcher and he has thrown out 41% of base stealers; however, the Tigers will want to be aggressive should Zack Randolph see time, as he has thrown out just 1 base runner in 17 attempts. LSU’s team fielding % is a solid .979 and the 3 catchers combine for a 33% CSB rate.
Season Stats
Roster
Schedule (via Warren Nolan)
Media Coverage:
TV: Friday – CST/CSS; Saturday – ESPNU; Sunday – CST
Online: ESPN3.com – Friday, Saturday, & Sunday (subject to blackout); GeauxZone Video – Sat & Sun
Radio: 98.1 FM (check your local listings) all 3 games; audio always available through the GeauxZone
PREDICTION: Nola took the loss last Friday night, and anytime that happens, LSU is in serious trouble. He only made a few mistakes against Florida, and they took advantage. LSU will need to get the bats going real soon to have any chance to climb back up the west standings. No better opportunity to make your move than at home against the team in first place. You don’t want to rely on scoring late with Lindgren and Holder in the bullpen for MSU. LSU doesn’t strike out as a team very much, and State’s pitching staff is second in the conference in K’s, so something has to give. I think LSU scores early in each game to give them a good chance. Paul Mainieri’s streak against the cowbells continues, and the Fighting Tigers get a much needed series win.
Fri: MSU 0, LSU 2
Sat: MSU 3,LSU 4
Sun: MSU 6, LSU 3
Jr. LHP Ross Mitchell (5-1, 1.55 ERA, 52.1 IP, 35 H, 9 ER, 13 BB, 27 K, .194 OBA)
Jr. RHP Aaron Nola (5-1, 0.55 ERA, 49.0 IP, 25 H, 3 ER, 9 BB, 61 K, .151 OBA)
Saturday's Pitching Matchup:
Jr. RHP Trevor Fitts (2-1, 3.09 ERA, 35.0 IP, 37 H, 12 ER, 6 BB, 40 K, .264 OBA)
Fr. LHP Jared Poché (5-2, 2.61 ERA, 38.0 IP, 28 H, 11 ER, 12 BB, 25 K, .209 OBA)
Sunday's Pitching Matchup: TBA
MSU contenders:
Preston Brown – Friday night guy last 2 weekends, suffering from sore shoulder, will start if healthy
Brandon Woodruff – opened season as Friday night starter, made 4 starts
Dakota Hudson – 4 Sunday starts
Ben Bracewell – 2 Friday night starts & 2 midweek starts
Austin Sexton – 2 Saturday starts & 1 midweek start
Relief Pitching:
Jonathan Holder is an All-American closer, who tied the SEC record with 21 saves last season, but has battled through a finger injury in the early part of this season that affected his production. He has still been a major part of the bullpen with 4 saves in 9 appearances and a 2.60 ERA in 17.1 innings all in relief. Holder has a career ERA of 1.44 and 34 saves. The most dependable guy on the staff this season has been Jacob Lindgren who leads the team with 10 appearances in relief allowing just 10 hits for a team best .149 average against and 0.93 ERA. Lindgren has struck out a ridiculous 37 batters in 19.1 innings of relief work. The 6 foot southpaw was an 11th round draft pick out of high school in the summer of 2011. Myles Gentry has been a main bullpen contributor the last couple of seasons. He’s thrown 13.2 innings allowed 10 hits and struck out 14 batters in 9 appearances.
Mississippi State Offense: (LSU numbers in parentheses)
Team BA: .270 (.274)
Team OBP: .378 (.364)
Team SLG: .336 (.386)
Mississippi State lost its top two offensive producers from last year’s team. With that said, the 2014 offense has been pretty consistent in terms of hit for average top to bottom even though the overall average has fallen. This is a disciplined team without a lot of power, but they find ways on base with 174 walks/HBPs in 30 games. Brett Pirtle is the only position player to have started all of the team’s 30 games and has a team-high 36 hits on the season. CT Bradford has been battling a hip injury and will likely be sidelined for at least the Friday night game or longer. His replacement, Derrick Armstrong has made a big splash hitting for a .328 average in 16 starts and knocked out 10 hits in SEC play. Wes Rea is the big junior first baseman. He’s the biggest power threat in the lineup. On the bases, State is pretty aggressive and effective in taking bags. VIckerson, Henderson, and Armstrong are the guys to watch closely on the base paths. As a team, State has 45 stolen bases and a 72% success rate. LSU has just 24 stolen bases on the season.
Mississippi State Projected Lineup:
1) LF Jake Vickerson (.265 avg, 4 2B, 10 RBI, 20 R, 13 BB, 11 K, 7-9 SB)
2) DH Alex Detz (.234 avg, 2 2B, 2 HR, 19 RBI, 16 R, 17 BB, 16 K, 3-6 SB)
3) 1B Wes Rea (.283 avg, 4 2B, 3 HR, 25 RBI, 15 R, 23 BB, 27 K, 0-0 SB)
4) 2B Brett Pirtle (.316 avg, 3 2B, 3B, 13 RBI, 15 R, 5 BB, 11 K, 3-5 SB)
5) SS Seth Heck (.254 avg, 3 2B, 12 RBI, 12 R, 11 BB, 6 K, 2-2 SB)
6) CF Derrick Armstrong (.328 avg, 2B, 10 RBI, 13 R, 8 BB, 14 K, 9-10 SB)
7) RF Demarcus Henderson (.333 avg, 2 2B, 5 RBI, 13 R, 14 BB, 13 K, 9-9 SB)
8) C Gavin Collins (.275 avg, 5 2B, 3 RBI, 6 R, 4 BB, 3 K, 0-1 SB)
9) 3B Matthew Britton (.135 avg, 2B, 6 RBI, 11 R, 12 BB, 11 K, 2-2 SB)
Other guys we will see:
CF C.T. Bradford (.323 avg, 2 2B, 4 3B, 12 RBI, 7 R, 2 BB, 7 K, 2-4 SB) – out with hip injury
C Zack Randolph (.250 avg, 9 RBI, 7 R, 4 BB, 4 K, 2-3 SB)
DH Daniel Garner (.250 avg, 2 2B, 4 RBI, 2 R, 2 BB, 13 K, 0-0 SB)
OF Cody Brown (.242 avg, 2B, 3B, 6 RBI, 8 R, 15 BB, 10 K, 2-3 SB)
Defense:
The State defense has been superb this year fielding .985 as a team. Middle infielders Pirtle and Heck have just 4 errors between them. MSU has turned 25 double plays on the season, and LSU has turned 19 DPs. Gavin Collins is the main catcher and he has thrown out 41% of base stealers; however, the Tigers will want to be aggressive should Zack Randolph see time, as he has thrown out just 1 base runner in 17 attempts. LSU’s team fielding % is a solid .979 and the 3 catchers combine for a 33% CSB rate.
Season Stats
Roster
Schedule (via Warren Nolan)
Media Coverage:
TV: Friday – CST/CSS; Saturday – ESPNU; Sunday – CST
Online: ESPN3.com – Friday, Saturday, & Sunday (subject to blackout); GeauxZone Video – Sat & Sun
Radio: 98.1 FM (check your local listings) all 3 games; audio always available through the GeauxZone
PREDICTION: Nola took the loss last Friday night, and anytime that happens, LSU is in serious trouble. He only made a few mistakes against Florida, and they took advantage. LSU will need to get the bats going real soon to have any chance to climb back up the west standings. No better opportunity to make your move than at home against the team in first place. You don’t want to rely on scoring late with Lindgren and Holder in the bullpen for MSU. LSU doesn’t strike out as a team very much, and State’s pitching staff is second in the conference in K’s, so something has to give. I think LSU scores early in each game to give them a good chance. Paul Mainieri’s streak against the cowbells continues, and the Fighting Tigers get a much needed series win.
Fri: MSU 0, LSU 2
Sat: MSU 3,LSU 4
Sun: MSU 6, LSU 3
This post was edited on 4/4/14 at 6:40 pm
Posted on 4/4/14 at 2:25 am to AstroTiger
Astro doin work, son!
Posted on 4/4/14 at 2:28 am to LSU=Champions
Now, I have to be up in 4 hours to do my real job 
Posted on 4/4/14 at 2:31 am to AstroTiger
Posted on 4/4/14 at 2:32 am to AstroTiger
If y'all were to win 2 out of 3, I think it would have to be Saturday and Sundays games. I don't see y'all beating us with Poche tomorrow when we throw Ross Mitchell. That being said, we either lose the series or sweep the series. If we win tomorrow, I think our guys will be riding high and take the next 2 games. With that in mind. Y'all win the series.
Friday: State 7, LSU 2
Saturday: State 1, LSU 4
Sunday: State 4, LSU 5
Friday: State 7, LSU 2
Saturday: State 1, LSU 4
Sunday: State 4, LSU 5
This post was edited on 4/4/14 at 2:37 am
Posted on 4/4/14 at 2:51 am to pivey14
Poche isn't pitching friday. He's pitching Saturday. Nola is on the bump Friday.
Posted on 4/4/14 at 3:30 am to LSU=Champions
You just keep trying to correct me and yet every time you are wrong. Poche is starting tomorrow. Nola is on the bump Saturday. Unless you're the one calling the shots for LSU's starting rotation.
This post was edited on 4/4/14 at 3:34 am
Posted on 4/4/14 at 6:11 am to pivey14
PM switched it back. Nola pitches tonight. Yes, we (me, L=C, hcb) call the shots.
Posted on 4/4/14 at 6:25 am to ell_13
Posted on 4/4/14 at 6:34 am to ell_13
Man, he really thought he knew more about our rotation than us?
Posted on 4/4/14 at 6:39 am to AstroTiger
Pretty work again Astro
Posted on 4/4/14 at 6:51 am to ell_13
quote:
Yes, we (me, L=C, hcb) call the shots.
This is true, those guys call the shots... but they check with me first.
Posted on 4/4/14 at 7:03 am to pivey14
You obviously don't have a clue...
Great work Astro!
Great work Astro!
Posted on 4/4/14 at 7:20 am to AstroTiger
Posted on 4/4/14 at 7:30 am to TIGERNATION031
Posted on 4/4/14 at 7:38 am to AstroTiger
Posted on 4/4/14 at 7:41 am to pivey14
quote:
. Nola is on the bump Saturday.
PM reads the rant... he knows what's up.
Posted on 4/4/14 at 7:41 am to LSUTygerFan
Biggest game of the year, can't hold anything back
Posted on 4/4/14 at 7:44 am to AstroTiger
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