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Started By
Message
Saban to UT would change CFB for the worse....here's why
Posted on 12/12/13 at 12:59 pm
Posted on 12/12/13 at 12:59 pm
First off the bat, as far as LSU is concerned, what affects us more is what WE do in our own program as opposed whether or not CNS goes to UT. Make it a place players want to play. Big step in that direction is Cam Cameron. Next step should be increasing the recruiting budget to keep up.
That being said, let's say Saban accepts the UT job. At $8 to $10M per year. That will set off a chain of events that may change CFB, most likely for worse.
Bama won't just go away, they will seek out the next best guy (whoever that is) at $7M per year. While that's all going on, 10 other schools will pony up an extra $1-2M per year to make sure it's not their guy.
The idea being - just be one of the last 4 teams standing for the playoffs. Once these coaching arms races are on, not many schools will have the power to keep up. What's left are maybe a dozen schools (currently including LSU) that have those kind of resources - or are willing to spend them.
After the 4 team playoff run ends after it's contract - what we may have is the dissolution of the major conferences and what's left are maybe 32-48 teams in a national Superteam-Conference. And the rest are in "Division II/III/IV, etc). it would be similar to NFL Saturday every week in the fall.
The money will be huge if you're at the top - a typical schedule may have LSU with 8 of their games vs Upper Tier teams: UCLA, Bama, Ohio State, Texas, Florida State, Stanford, etc and the rest vs lower tier teams like Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan, etc (example based on this year's results)
While it all sounds good on paper, I'm not sure this is the direction CFB should be heading. I'm sure LSU would be one of the big boys, but the Mississippi States, Vandy's, TCU's would probably be left out. And the bigger the money, the more tempting to run BIG money under the table to lure recruits (I don't think it's as bad now as many of you think - even at Bama).
Also, with so much talent concentrated on so few teams, it's only a matter of time before CFB will start to look like basketball and will become a one an done, or two and done proposition. At that point, does the NFL step in and want to get in on that gravy train and at the same time get rid of their competition? I mean, these players are not graduating, and school is not the primary reason they're there.
At that point the NFL sets up a Developmental League, and actually offers to PAY those players, and they don't have to go to school? And when the players go, so will the coaches, and what is then left of big time college football?
It may not go down like this, but the bigger the money, the more change will come. But to put it mildly, the NFL is watching with glee as college football begins to destroy itself with 2-3 teams who can afford to dominate, and with an unsustainable business model. When it makes the move to a developmental league, big time CFB is done.
Just my two cents.
That being said, let's say Saban accepts the UT job. At $8 to $10M per year. That will set off a chain of events that may change CFB, most likely for worse.
Bama won't just go away, they will seek out the next best guy (whoever that is) at $7M per year. While that's all going on, 10 other schools will pony up an extra $1-2M per year to make sure it's not their guy.
The idea being - just be one of the last 4 teams standing for the playoffs. Once these coaching arms races are on, not many schools will have the power to keep up. What's left are maybe a dozen schools (currently including LSU) that have those kind of resources - or are willing to spend them.
After the 4 team playoff run ends after it's contract - what we may have is the dissolution of the major conferences and what's left are maybe 32-48 teams in a national Superteam-Conference. And the rest are in "Division II/III/IV, etc). it would be similar to NFL Saturday every week in the fall.
The money will be huge if you're at the top - a typical schedule may have LSU with 8 of their games vs Upper Tier teams: UCLA, Bama, Ohio State, Texas, Florida State, Stanford, etc and the rest vs lower tier teams like Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan, etc (example based on this year's results)
While it all sounds good on paper, I'm not sure this is the direction CFB should be heading. I'm sure LSU would be one of the big boys, but the Mississippi States, Vandy's, TCU's would probably be left out. And the bigger the money, the more tempting to run BIG money under the table to lure recruits (I don't think it's as bad now as many of you think - even at Bama).
Also, with so much talent concentrated on so few teams, it's only a matter of time before CFB will start to look like basketball and will become a one an done, or two and done proposition. At that point, does the NFL step in and want to get in on that gravy train and at the same time get rid of their competition? I mean, these players are not graduating, and school is not the primary reason they're there.
At that point the NFL sets up a Developmental League, and actually offers to PAY those players, and they don't have to go to school? And when the players go, so will the coaches, and what is then left of big time college football?
It may not go down like this, but the bigger the money, the more change will come. But to put it mildly, the NFL is watching with glee as college football begins to destroy itself with 2-3 teams who can afford to dominate, and with an unsustainable business model. When it makes the move to a developmental league, big time CFB is done.
Just my two cents.
This post was edited on 12/12/13 at 1:01 pm
Posted on 12/12/13 at 1:01 pm to MetTiger
quote:Miles to Bama?
they will seek out the next best guy
Posted on 12/12/13 at 1:01 pm to MetTiger
Some of your points line up
But you seriously put way too much thought into this.
But you seriously put way too much thought into this.
Posted on 12/12/13 at 1:02 pm to MetTiger
you're looking waaaaaaaaay too deep into this
Posted on 12/12/13 at 1:04 pm to MetTiger
quote:
Just my two cents.
Saban likes money?
Posted on 12/12/13 at 1:05 pm to MetTiger
quote:
lower tier teams like Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan, etc
You lost me here. Those are not lower tier teams especially Michigan and Florida.
Posted on 12/12/13 at 1:05 pm to Choctaw
quote:
you're looking waaaaaaaaay too deep into this
Actually been thinking about this a long time. The biggest dog is all of sports is the NFL. And they have no interest in CFB becoming bigger than they are. With the money arms race in CFB, only consolidation of the CFB big dogs can generate the income needed to sustain itself, thus threatening the NFL. After that it's no contest.
Posted on 12/12/13 at 1:07 pm to La Place Mike
quote:
Miles to Bama?
No... Malzahn to Bama, could you imagine the fireworks if that happened?
Posted on 12/12/13 at 1:08 pm to AngryBeavers
quote:
You lost me here. Those are not lower tier teams especially Michigan and Florida.
that was assuming the power rating of the teams based on this year's performance. Obviously years down the road, that would change.
Posted on 12/12/13 at 1:08 pm to MetTiger
I don't care. I'm an LSU fan and Saban at Bama has hurt LSU a lot. I want him out of the sec west.
Posted on 12/12/13 at 1:08 pm to MetTiger
I think nearly all of that is coming down the road with or without Saban bending over UT or BAMA for his big payday. As soon as a playoff is instituted in college football, college football AS WE KNOW IT ceases to exist. What comes may or may not be better, but it sure as hell will not be what we all grew up with.
The catalyst will be the playoff, not Saban breaking the bank.
The catalyst will be the playoff, not Saban breaking the bank.
Posted on 12/12/13 at 1:15 pm to GeauxTigerTM
quote:
The catalyst will be the playoff, not Saban breaking the bank.
True the playoff is the catalyst, and maybe that's exactly what the real lure is for Saban - a much easier road to that in the B12 as opposed to the SEC. That being said, $10M per year is sending shudders throughout the rest of CFB. For some programs, it's too much to keep up with, and will no doubt help define the number of teams "allowed" to compete for a national championship.
Here's the deal - everyone is making money but the players. To make it work, these elite players will be paid. And that's where the NFL will nip it in the bud.
Posted on 12/12/13 at 1:16 pm to UnAnon
quote:
you seriously put way too much thought into this.
Posted on 12/12/13 at 1:18 pm to MetTiger
Good point so thank Texas and Bama for fricking everything up! The only one that wins at this is that guy Nick!
Posted on 12/12/13 at 1:21 pm to MetTiger
quote:
Bama won't just go away, they will seek out the next best guy (whoever that is) at $7M per year. While that's all going on, 10 other schools will pony up an extra $1-2M per year to make sure it's not their guy.
While it's true Bama won't go away, they are not spending $7 M on another coach. Period.
Saban is getting his money based on the fact that his teams have won 4 NCs. There is only 1 other coach in college football with more than 1 and he's at tOSU.
If AD's are smart, they'll make it clear that Saban's salary is on a separate level based on his accomplishments. Win 4 NCs and then talk about getting paid like him.
Posted on 12/12/13 at 1:25 pm to Geauxgurt
quote:
While it's true Bama won't go away, they are not spending $7 M on another coach. Period.
Completely disagree. Bama is not going to go post Bear here. If $7M is what it takes Gruden to move there, they will spend it. They're going to try to hit the ground running. Remember, you only have to be the 4th team. And only a big name will not be intimidated by the Saban legacy.
Posted on 12/12/13 at 1:26 pm to MetTiger
quote:
True the playoff is the catalyst, and maybe that's exactly what the real lure is for Saban - a much easier road to that in the B12 as opposed to the SEC. That being said, $10M per year is sending shudders throughout the rest of CFB. For some programs, it's too much to keep up with, and will no doubt help define the number of teams "allowed" to compete for a national championship.
But we're already at this point now. There are what...100+ "eligible" teams to win the DivI (or whatever the frick it's called now) National Championship? But how many REALLY are up to it? 40...max? That's almost entirely due to the costs associated with competing.
I hate the idea of a playoff, because I think college football will become college basketball where far too many people could give a shite about the regular season and are only in it for the playoff. And once four teams make money, 8 will be right around the corner. At that point, college football will have been taken away form college football fans by the networks looking to sell ad revenue during the games, and casual fans like those who flock to March Madness an pay no attention to college basketball pre February.
However, given I'm tired of being the odd man out in terms of having so little say-so at the SEC office, there is something kind of appealing to me of a Super Conference run by a central office that handles scheduling, officiating, etc much like the NFL does. I long for the day when a BAMA graduate is not controlling a large chuck of the SEC scheduling and BAMA/AU fans don't run SEC officiating.
quote:
Here's the deal - everyone is making money but the players. To make it work, these elite players will be paid. And that's where the NFL will nip it in the bud.
That's an entirely different can of worms.
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