I'm currently in 4th place at 7-5 (2nd in points so I'll likely get any tiebreakers). 6 teams make the playoffs in this league. Teams in 2nd and 3rd place are 8-4 and teams from 4th through 7th place are 7-5. In other words there's basically one playoff spot up for grabs.

I need any one of these 4 things to happen for me to make the playoffs. What are my chances?

1.)I win tonight I'm in. I'm playing the 3rd place team. I'm down by 23. He has J. Graham left. I have Lynch.
2.) The 2nd place team is playing the 5th place team. If the 2nd place team wins I'm in. 2nd place team is 33 points down with Brees left to play. In this league Brees has scored over 33 points in 4 games.
3.) The 8th place team is playing the 6th place team. If the 8th place team wins, I'm in. They're down by 10 with Sproles left to play.
4.) The 7th place team is playing the 12th place team. If the 12th place wins, I'm in. 12th place team is down by 50 with L. Moore and R. Wilson still to play.

I think none of these are probable to happen, but I just need one of the four scenarios to happen. Odds?

This post was edited on 12/2/13 at 9:43 am

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Posted by GOON

Fantasy Land

Member since Mar 2008

7399 posts

Posted on 12/2/13 at 9:18 am to BrentED

30%

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Posted by oleyeller

Vols, Bitch

Member since Oct 2012

32021 posts

Posted on 12/2/13 at 9:46 am to GOON

about 42%

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Posted by GOON

Fantasy Land

Member since Mar 2008

7399 posts

Posted on 12/2/13 at 9:49 am to oleyeller

quote:
about 42%

and a half

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Posted by BrentED

Parts Unknown

Member since Oct 2007

2216 posts

Posted on 12/2/13 at 9:56 am to oleyeller

quote:
about 42%

This is what I was thinking. A little less than half.

1.) Lynch/Graham matchup - I give that less than 3% and will require both the unthinkable happening to Graham and Lynch having a very solid game. I'd rather not make the fantasy playoffs than have this option happening.
2.)Brees scoring over 33 points at Seattle - 10% chance
3.) Sproles scoring over 10 points - 33% chance
4.) R. Wilson and L. Moore scoring 50+ - less than 2% chance

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Posted by tigersint

Lafayette

Member since Nov 2012

3548 posts

Posted on 12/2/13 at 10:45 am to BrentED

Im down 29.5 and i have brees left to play

Hers to brees having a monster game

Only 1 time this season has brees scored less than that number and he scored 28.5 that game. I like my odds

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Posted by BrentED

Parts Unknown

Member since Oct 2007

2216 posts

Posted on 12/2/13 at 10:49 am to tigersint

I'm with you. I need it. Sucks b/c the team Brees is playing had Jeffrey. The team I'm playing has Decker. So if I miss the playoffs in Week 13, it's some fluky shite. Even if Decker and Jeffrey had nice games (say 20 points) I'd have a real nice shot, but for both those bastards to go off. What a crock!

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Posted by oleyeller

Vols, Bitch

Member since Oct 2012

32021 posts

Posted on 12/2/13 at 11:00 am to tigersint