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PM yikes

Posted on 11/21/13 at 8:50 am
Posted by Mercy Percy
Norman Oklahoma
Member since Oct 2009
1321 posts
Posted on 11/21/13 at 8:50 am
Why is PM down over 5 bucks in the past two days??
Posted by TheDiesel
Phoenix
Member since Feb 2010
2608 posts
Posted on 11/21/13 at 8:51 am to
Thatbigfella sold all of his shares
Posted by Bear Is Dead
Monroe
Member since Nov 2007
4696 posts
Posted on 11/21/13 at 8:54 am to
Downgraded growth outlook for 2014. Now neutral.
Posted by Mercy Percy
Norman Oklahoma
Member since Oct 2009
1321 posts
Posted on 11/21/13 at 9:05 am to
So what are thoughts on this stock?? Keep it?
Posted by southernelite
Dallas
Member since Sep 2009
53177 posts
Posted on 11/21/13 at 9:24 am to
quote:

Thatbigfella sold all of his shares

Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
89531 posts
Posted on 11/21/13 at 9:27 am to
I'm very near my stop loss criteria. I'm conflicted. I still believe in the underlying stock, but I am reconsidering my current position.
Posted by Bear Is Dead
Monroe
Member since Nov 2007
4696 posts
Posted on 11/21/13 at 9:30 am to
Im keeping it. Will probably wait to see how it looks over the holidays and buy more if it drops.
Posted by southernelite
Dallas
Member since Sep 2009
53177 posts
Posted on 11/21/13 at 10:12 am to
wonder if ole boy is still fricking with those puts on PM.
Posted by donRANDOMnumbers
Hub City
Member since Nov 2006
16908 posts
Posted on 11/21/13 at 11:27 am to
i will probably grab some more on the way down and move my average. still a good long term stock with solid yield.

eta: IMMFHO
This post was edited on 11/21/13 at 11:28 am
Posted by Cmlsu5618
Destin, FL
Member since Sep 2010
3763 posts
Posted on 11/21/13 at 11:58 am to
quote:

Thatbigfella sold all of his shares




Where has that guy been? He fell off the map.
Posted by austiger
Austin
Member since Apr 2012
744 posts
Posted on 11/21/13 at 12:33 pm to
I'm keeping mine... think longer term
Posted by TheDiesel
Phoenix
Member since Feb 2010
2608 posts
Posted on 11/21/13 at 12:42 pm to
Probably hanging out with all the high rollers in Miami.

I will say that he put in a lot of time explaining his dividend strategy and it was interesting seeing it from a different perspective.
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
89531 posts
Posted on 11/21/13 at 1:42 pm to
quote:

I will say that he put in a lot of time explaining his dividend strategy and it was interesting seeing it from a different perspective.


I was aware of the strategy, generally, but his use of real world examples, and some of the tools he referenced (dividata.com, for example) have been very helpful to me. I also bought PM, not necessarily on his recommendation, but his argument for the stock was solid.

Still is - nothing has changed about the fundamentals, it's just a little down from where I bought it.
Posted by Mercy Percy
Norman Oklahoma
Member since Oct 2009
1321 posts
Posted on 11/21/13 at 1:53 pm to
I bought it for the dividend play and am up huge in it!! I guess I shudda sold some on the way up!!!
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 11/21/13 at 2:31 pm to
Because it's coming back to reality.

The company is being priced like a growth stock when the reality is that it is in one of the most mature industries around. Extrapolation of the growth of non addicted lower class moving to the middle class with the smoking rates of the pre-addicted middle class in America is assinine.
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
89531 posts
Posted on 11/21/13 at 2:38 pm to
quote:

The company is being priced like a growth stock when the reality is that it is in one of the most mature industries around.


Not overseas it isn't. What you're saying is true about MO, but not about PM.

It might be short-sighted to assume that overseas smoking will grow at the rate it did in the U.S. from 1920 to 1980, but I can assure you that smoking rates for ages 15+ outside the U.S. are nearly 100% - limited primarily by cost and availability. Shocking stat for Americans, with our almost 40 year anti-smoking crusade in our history (I am a rabid, anti-smoking advocate myself), but there it is.

So, let's not pretend the U.S. smoking market is the same as the overseas smoking market.
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 11/21/13 at 3:15 pm to
Like that.

An excellent case can be made, but it's phony, IMO.

Add in the weak handed nature of the yield pigs that have inflated the price and this stock is set to get crushed in a rising interest rate environment.
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
89531 posts
Posted on 11/21/13 at 3:47 pm to
quote:

Add in the weak handed nature of the yield pigs that have inflated the price and this stock is set to get crushed in a rising interest rate environment.


That is a factor against getting too heavily into PM, I would agree. I still think the stock is a relative bargain in the $80s, but the recent drop in price shows growing disagreement with that sentiment.
This post was edited on 11/21/13 at 3:56 pm
Posted by donRANDOMnumbers
Hub City
Member since Nov 2006
16908 posts
Posted on 11/21/13 at 3:54 pm to
i saw it as an opportunity to diversify, but i did already have MO in the portfolio.

i am fine with some fluctation.

hope it doesn't crash though. don't think it will.
This post was edited on 11/21/13 at 3:55 pm
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
89531 posts
Posted on 11/21/13 at 3:58 pm to
quote:

am fine with some fluctation.


I am, too. If the price drops, the yield goes up, and I get more shares with my reinvested dividends - if the price goes up, my position value goes up - I don't get as many shares.

It is dollar cost averaging of the dividends, and I'm fine with that, as long as the 30 to 40 year trend line is up, I'm good - I bought this stock to provide a supplemental income in my 60s and 70s.
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