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Las Vegas Power Poll: used by oddsmakers to set lines
Posted on 10/15/13 at 4:04 am
Posted on 10/15/13 at 4:04 am
4
Posted on 10/15/13 at 6:26 am to smash williams
quote:
refrain from calling it an upset if the favorite wins because it just makes you look like an idiot.
Posted on 10/15/13 at 6:55 am to smash williams
Good stuff 
Posted on 10/15/13 at 7:18 am to smash williams
Thanks. Makes me want to knock off Bama even more. Not out of jealouy, I just want to see that smirk slapped off their faces.
Posted on 10/15/13 at 8:06 am to smash williams
quote:
(*Every oddsmaker does not use this set of rankings, this is our power poll)
This makes me wonder if there are actually a lot of Houses that use this poll or if this is just some lone (few) guys attempt at profit.
Posted on 10/15/13 at 8:45 am to Flame Salamander
Books don't "use" this poll to set the lines they use it to possibly tinker with the line (maybe a point or so) given after running millions of computer simulations on each game. It helps counter public perception and make the bettor have a tough decision but they aren't sitting around saying okay well we have LSU ranked 4 and the AP has them ranked this so we are gonna blah blah blah etc etc etc that's not how it works
This post was edited on 10/15/13 at 8:46 am
Posted on 10/15/13 at 8:49 am to the_watcher
I'd imagine that odds makers don't weigh losses as heavily as pollsters do.
It's kind of funny. I think oddsmakers look at it more as who could beat who, and by how much. Where pollsters rankings are rewards for recruiting rankings, where you finished last season, and the record this season.
It's kind of funny. I think oddsmakers look at it more as who could beat who, and by how much. Where pollsters rankings are rewards for recruiting rankings, where you finished last season, and the record this season.
Posted on 10/15/13 at 9:43 am to Wayne Campbell
This is not what Vegas's uses to set lines... this however is:
As you can see LSU has a rating of -9. Ole Miss has a rating of 1. When you subtract the 2 you get 10. On a neutral field the line would be set at LSU -10.
Ole Miss get 3 points for their HFV as you see on the sheet. 10-3=7
The line should have been set around LSU -7 (give or take a point or two depending on the sportsbook decision)
The money then moves the line after it has open.
As you can see LSU has a rating of -9. Ole Miss has a rating of 1. When you subtract the 2 you get 10. On a neutral field the line would be set at LSU -10.
Ole Miss get 3 points for their HFV as you see on the sheet. 10-3=7
The line should have been set around LSU -7 (give or take a point or two depending on the sportsbook decision)
The money then moves the line after it has open.
Posted on 10/15/13 at 9:44 am to Six3
and if you want to look ahead... as of this week if we played Bama, they would be a 10 point favorite over us.
Posted on 10/15/13 at 9:52 am to Six3
Like that chart 
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