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The Odd Race for NL MVP
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:23 pm
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:23 pm
AL MVP is pretty much all but sewn up by Miggy doing other-godly things, but the NL race is slightly odd. Most of the leading candidates play for non-contenders and none of them are so outstanding as to run away with the race.
Carlos Gomez
Pros:
Leads the NL in WAR. Excellent .305/.346/.554 triple slash and plays great defense in CF. He's also 4th in swipes and 8th in HRs, but doesn't lead in a single other category besides WAR.
Cons:
On the national landscape his name gets a big, "Who?" Plays for a small market team that is dead in the water. Also probably lumped into that "prove yourself" category. People think they need to see more than a great second half last year and what he's doing now. WAR is really fueled by his outstanding D.
Has compiled a lot of really good numbers, but doesn't pace the league in any category.
David Wright
Pros:
2nd in the NL in WAR. Plays a tough position and plays it well. Next to Jeter, baseball's prime "golden boy." Plays in NY, so everyone knows him. He sorta has that reverse Gomez in that one of these years he may win an MVP "because he's David Wright and he should." .307/.391/.509 triple slash. 15 HRs/16 swipes are good numbers.
Cons:
Doesn't lead the league in a single category. Plays for a bad team. Doesn't have gaudy power numbers, which voters love.
Carlos Gonzalez
Pros: 2nd in the NL in HRs (26). Leads the NL in slugging by a wide margin. .306/.373/.602 triple slash is stellar. He's probably having the best offensive season of all involved. Also has 21 steals. D metrics rate out good, though historically he's not as strong.
He's a multiple time All-Star and finished 3rd in MVP voting, so has some clout nationally.
Cons: Plays in the ultimate hitter's park (at least that's the perception). Voters will likely discount his numbers as being "Coors inflated" (though his road numbers are drastically better). Team is hanging around but not truly a contender.
Andrew McCutchen
Pros: Tied with Cargo for 4th overall in WAR. 14 bombs and 21 swipes put him in that dual-threat category like Gomez, Wright and Gonzalez, though he doesn't lead the league in any category. .302/.373/.491 is a good triple slash. Numbers wise, he's got the least compelling case at this point but...
He has the narrative. Pirates are FINALLY good. He's the face of the franchise. It's a great story to write, and that alone will secure him votes.
Cons: Not outstanding in any single category, but good in all of them. Simply, other players have better statistical cases than him.
Matt Carpenter
Pros: Plays in one of baseball's meccas and they are a top contender. .317/.391/.486 is a good triple slash, a great one for a 2B. 5th overall in WAR.
Cons: Who? He's got a one-year wonder thing that works against his case. He's not outstanding in any one category. He has no power (9 bombs) or swipes (1). Arguably not even the best candidate on his own team. Maybe not even top 2.
Yadier Molina
Pros: The best defensive catcher in baseball without question. Team leader in one of baseball's mecca. In the race for the batting crown (.331). .331/.376/.482 is dazzling for a catcher.
Cons: Cardinals fans will drive you made defending his honor. Only 8 bombs, 3 steals and a low RBI total.
Joey Votto
Pros: Tied for 7th in WAR with Yadi. Leads the NL with a .430 OBP. .321/.430/.508 is a good triple slash. Has won an MVP, so name recognition. Plays for a contender.
Cons: Votto's overall value is greater than his counting numbers. He leads the NL in wRC+, which likely means he's having the best overall offensive season, but having just 16 HRs and a low RBI count (47) while playing 1B will likely cost him. He's not stellar in your typical stats.
Paul Goldschmidt
Pros: His team is contending. He's leading the NL in RBI and he's 4th in HR. 8th overall in WAR. .303/.392/.545
Cons: Probably still a bit unknown nationally. Doesn't lead the league in anything. His team is contending... but for how long?
NOT A CANDIDATE BASED ON INJURIES
He hasn't played enough, but he's having a remarkable year:
Hanley Ramirez
.381/.431/.680 triple slash. 11 bombs in just 49 games. Worth 3.5 wins in that small amount of time. Playing good SS for a contender. If Hanley had been healthy, he might be the prohibitive favorite.
Who You Got?
Carlos Gomez
Pros:
Leads the NL in WAR. Excellent .305/.346/.554 triple slash and plays great defense in CF. He's also 4th in swipes and 8th in HRs, but doesn't lead in a single other category besides WAR.
Cons:
On the national landscape his name gets a big, "Who?" Plays for a small market team that is dead in the water. Also probably lumped into that "prove yourself" category. People think they need to see more than a great second half last year and what he's doing now. WAR is really fueled by his outstanding D.
Has compiled a lot of really good numbers, but doesn't pace the league in any category.
David Wright
Pros:
2nd in the NL in WAR. Plays a tough position and plays it well. Next to Jeter, baseball's prime "golden boy." Plays in NY, so everyone knows him. He sorta has that reverse Gomez in that one of these years he may win an MVP "because he's David Wright and he should." .307/.391/.509 triple slash. 15 HRs/16 swipes are good numbers.
Cons:
Doesn't lead the league in a single category. Plays for a bad team. Doesn't have gaudy power numbers, which voters love.
Carlos Gonzalez
Pros: 2nd in the NL in HRs (26). Leads the NL in slugging by a wide margin. .306/.373/.602 triple slash is stellar. He's probably having the best offensive season of all involved. Also has 21 steals. D metrics rate out good, though historically he's not as strong.
He's a multiple time All-Star and finished 3rd in MVP voting, so has some clout nationally.
Cons: Plays in the ultimate hitter's park (at least that's the perception). Voters will likely discount his numbers as being "Coors inflated" (though his road numbers are drastically better). Team is hanging around but not truly a contender.
Andrew McCutchen
Pros: Tied with Cargo for 4th overall in WAR. 14 bombs and 21 swipes put him in that dual-threat category like Gomez, Wright and Gonzalez, though he doesn't lead the league in any category. .302/.373/.491 is a good triple slash. Numbers wise, he's got the least compelling case at this point but...
He has the narrative. Pirates are FINALLY good. He's the face of the franchise. It's a great story to write, and that alone will secure him votes.
Cons: Not outstanding in any single category, but good in all of them. Simply, other players have better statistical cases than him.
Matt Carpenter
Pros: Plays in one of baseball's meccas and they are a top contender. .317/.391/.486 is a good triple slash, a great one for a 2B. 5th overall in WAR.
Cons: Who? He's got a one-year wonder thing that works against his case. He's not outstanding in any one category. He has no power (9 bombs) or swipes (1). Arguably not even the best candidate on his own team. Maybe not even top 2.
Yadier Molina
Pros: The best defensive catcher in baseball without question. Team leader in one of baseball's mecca. In the race for the batting crown (.331). .331/.376/.482 is dazzling for a catcher.
Cons: Cardinals fans will drive you made defending his honor. Only 8 bombs, 3 steals and a low RBI total.
Joey Votto
Pros: Tied for 7th in WAR with Yadi. Leads the NL with a .430 OBP. .321/.430/.508 is a good triple slash. Has won an MVP, so name recognition. Plays for a contender.
Cons: Votto's overall value is greater than his counting numbers. He leads the NL in wRC+, which likely means he's having the best overall offensive season, but having just 16 HRs and a low RBI count (47) while playing 1B will likely cost him. He's not stellar in your typical stats.
Paul Goldschmidt
Pros: His team is contending. He's leading the NL in RBI and he's 4th in HR. 8th overall in WAR. .303/.392/.545
Cons: Probably still a bit unknown nationally. Doesn't lead the league in anything. His team is contending... but for how long?
NOT A CANDIDATE BASED ON INJURIES
He hasn't played enough, but he's having a remarkable year:
Hanley Ramirez
.381/.431/.680 triple slash. 11 bombs in just 49 games. Worth 3.5 wins in that small amount of time. Playing good SS for a contender. If Hanley had been healthy, he might be the prohibitive favorite.
Who You Got?
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:24 pm to OBUDan
Carlos Gomez.
but I might be a little bias.
but I might be a little bias.
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:25 pm to goldenbadger08
I will add that Adam Wainwright has a 5.0 WAR and considering there's not a ton separating all the hitters, could be a year where a pitcher steals the award.
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:27 pm to goldenbadger08
If Posey has a 2nd half like last year, he will be in the mix. I'd like to see Wainwright get serious consideration as well, dude's been a horse.
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:27 pm to OBUDan
Gomez & wright have no shot
Yady seems to be getting the most pub.
However I wouldn't totally take Hanley out of the running if he continues to hit and they continue to win. It's just been that type if year.
Yady seems to be getting the most pub.
However I wouldn't totally take Hanley out of the running if he continues to hit and they continue to win. It's just been that type if year.
This post was edited on 7/30/13 at 1:28 pm
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:29 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
Gomez & wright have no shot
yeah, I don't think so either, really.
quote:
However I wouldn't totally take Hanley out of the running if he continues to hit and they continue to win. It's just been that type if year.
Fair point. But I wonder if he just missed too much time. But media would love to tell the story of the resurrected Dodgers.
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:33 pm to OBUDan
Pedro Alvarez should be ahead of McCutcheon IMO
Cargo is so damn good but probably has no shot w his team out of it
Cargo is so damn good but probably has no shot w his team out of it
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:38 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
Pedro Alvarez should be ahead of McCutcheon IMO
Just because of the bombs?
I can't really see his case when he's hitting .244.
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:44 pm to OBUDan
If Pittsburgh ends up winning the division and getting the top record in the league, McCutcheon should get it even without overpowering stats.
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:45 pm to OBUDan
Gotta be CarGo right?
Eta: Rockies CarGo
Eta: Rockies CarGo
This post was edited on 7/30/13 at 1:47 pm
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:46 pm to BenDover
I think Cargo has the best case by the numbers, but playing in Coors and for a non-contender will hurt.
I think Cutch will be the odds on favorite if Pittsburgh stays on their run. Especially if they can win the Central.
I think Cutch will be the odds on favorite if Pittsburgh stays on their run. Especially if they can win the Central.
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:47 pm to OBUDan
This is a tough one. I would probably go with Yadi. Hard to compare though, but it is hard to measure exactly how valubale he is.
I can't think of a comment I would disagree with more than this though.
quote:
Pedro Alvarez should be ahead of McCutcheon IMO
I can't think of a comment I would disagree with more than this though.
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:48 pm to OBUDan
I think Molina will take it home. Carlos Gomez is on the bubble.
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:50 pm to BCMCubs
Finishing 4th last year will be fresh on voter's minds as well. He's "well liked" amongst voters, so that helps his cause.
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:51 pm to BCMCubs
Id have to agree with Alvarez over McCutchen
he's a sorry hitter but his power has really paced them when they have lacked in that department
he's a sorry hitter but his power has really paced them when they have lacked in that department
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:53 pm to Lester Earl
Do the Pirates stay put at the deadline, or do they need to add one more piece?
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:54 pm to OBUDan
AMc is having a good year, but by his standards people expect more. It's being played up in the media and I think that is worth something as far as voting.
Alvarez has hit some big HRs and has played what seems like a GG 3B (not sure on the numbers). I'd like to know how many of his HRs have tied or put the team ahead
Alvarez has hit some big HRs and has played what seems like a GG 3B (not sure on the numbers). I'd like to know how many of his HRs have tied or put the team ahead
Posted on 7/30/13 at 1:55 pm to BCMCubs
Looks like they are landing Rios and maybe Bud Norris.
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