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Scoring distribution
Posted on 7/29/13 at 1:07 pm
Posted on 7/29/13 at 1:07 pm
After looking through this past seasons team stats, I noticed that only 4 teams had 3 guys score at least 15+ppg (Brooklyn, Clippers, GS and Miami). That is the most across the league. So it got me thinking that we have 5 guys that are projected to score 15+ppg. Is that possible? If it isn't, who's numbers suffer?
4
Posted on 7/29/13 at 1:09 pm to brmark70816
Jrue's points will be down...Gordon and/or Evans too
Posted on 7/29/13 at 1:12 pm to drake20
All depends on Oden. Oden will get his 16 pts 8rbs and 4 blocks in 14 minutes.
Posted on 7/29/13 at 1:36 pm to Chad504boy
quote:
All depends on Oden. Oden will get his 16 pts 8rbs and 4 blocks in 14 minutes.
Someone has to score the rock on Oden's 12 assists.
Posted on 7/29/13 at 1:37 pm to brmark70816
I think we have 5 guys average between 15-20. So much balance, and on any given night any of them could score 25 or 10. Gonna be fun to watch!
If anyone suffers, it might be Ryno, depending on how teams guard him. Likely less shots (won't be asked to create at the end of shot clocks nearly as much) but more open shots. Should be more efficient.
I think Ego gets his 15 just b/c he'll get 4-5 ppg at the free throw line alone.
Evans will destroy the 2nd units.
AD will get 10 ppg at least just from lobs, put backs, and free throws. And add in his refined jumper, gets 15 easily.
Jrue has the chance to lose a few ppg as he focuses more on distributing, but he should still reach about 16 ppg.
I think we definitely have 4 guys average 15 ppg, and if Ego misses a big chunk of games but averages over 15 in the games he plays, I think we'll have 5 guys average the 15.
But I'm always the optimist...
If anyone suffers, it might be Ryno, depending on how teams guard him. Likely less shots (won't be asked to create at the end of shot clocks nearly as much) but more open shots. Should be more efficient.
I think Ego gets his 15 just b/c he'll get 4-5 ppg at the free throw line alone.
Evans will destroy the 2nd units.
AD will get 10 ppg at least just from lobs, put backs, and free throws. And add in his refined jumper, gets 15 easily.
Jrue has the chance to lose a few ppg as he focuses more on distributing, but he should still reach about 16 ppg.
I think we definitely have 4 guys average 15 ppg, and if Ego misses a big chunk of games but averages over 15 in the games he plays, I think we'll have 5 guys average the 15.
But I'm always the optimist...
Posted on 7/29/13 at 1:38 pm to That's BS
quote:
I think we have 5 guys average between 15-20.
Posted on 7/29/13 at 1:50 pm to brmark70816
quote:
So it got me thinking that we have 5 guys that are projected to score 15+ppg. Is that possible? If it isn't, who's numbers suffer?
Last season: LINK
Team eFG% 48.9 17th in league
Team Pace 88.5 29th in league
I'm not getting the numbers to match up our actual PPG, but eFG converts 3s to 2s and pace is your shots per 48 minutes. In theory 88.5 x .489 x 2 should give us the PPG but I got 86.5 vs. actual PPG of 94.1. Anyone see what I'm missing?
Looking at how others fair, a jump to a pace of 92 possessions per game (around 15th in the league) and an eFG% of 50.5% (around 11th in the league) doesn't seem unreasonable and that leads to 92.9 rather than 86.5. An increase of 6.4 PPG
Top scorers last season
Gordon 17
Anderson 16.2
Vasquez 13.9
Davis 13.5
Lopez 11.3
So just the expected increase in pace and efficiency could get you there
17
16.2
15
15
15
with .1 points to spare.
Posted on 7/29/13 at 2:18 pm to TigerinATL
Nice, at first I was thinking it was a silly, though, but it's really not. Now, we may not get many from anyone else on the team, but I wasn't counting on Aminu or Rivers for many points, anyway.
Posted on 7/29/13 at 2:28 pm to That's BS
quote:
Evans will destroy the 2nd units.
If the plan that the board thinks will happen actalyl does happen (him coming in most games with the second unit), then yes this will be accurate. It is really exciting to think about having a starter com in to anchor your bench for a lot of the season. This was a really big problem we had last year.
Posted on 7/29/13 at 2:41 pm to TigerinATL
rivers/aminu/morrow should get 15-20 ppg a night between them
This post was edited on 7/29/13 at 2:42 pm
Posted on 7/29/13 at 7:44 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
So just the expected increase in pace and efficiency could get you there
That is an awfully flat distribution. You would think one of the guys would pull away and score closer to 20ppg (Gordon?). I also think Davis will make a bit more of a jump, given he will be the primary, or only, post option. If his scoring only goes up 1.5 a game, I think that might be a bad sign.
I'm guessing/hoping we will have a similar distribution as Denver. Last season they had 6 guys in double figures, with 5 over 12ppg, but no one over 16.7ppg. But Denver was also the highest scoring team in the league. So probably not realistic to set the bar that high. It just means a couple of our guys personal number will dip or not live up to projections..
Posted on 7/29/13 at 9:41 pm to That's BS
quote:
If anyone suffers, it might be Ryno, depending on how teams guard him. Likely less shots (won't be asked to create at the end of shot clocks nearly as much) but more open shots. Should be more efficient.
i think Ryno benefits...
Posted on 7/31/13 at 9:02 am to brmark70816
That's tough but Jrue will suffer most because he ends up dishing more than swishing.
Evans off the bench won't be a 20 ppg guy but I wouldn't mind it.
Ryno is the best shooter in the game besides Curry so I don't expect his numbers to go down.
EG will suffer because, well, he is EG.
AD is the mystery. Does he score 15-18 ppg or become more defensive this season and end up around 12-14ppg with 12-14 RPG and 2 BPG?
Evans off the bench won't be a 20 ppg guy but I wouldn't mind it.
Ryno is the best shooter in the game besides Curry so I don't expect his numbers to go down.
EG will suffer because, well, he is EG.
AD is the mystery. Does he score 15-18 ppg or become more defensive this season and end up around 12-14ppg with 12-14 RPG and 2 BPG?
Posted on 7/31/13 at 9:24 am to tadelatt
quote:
end up around 12-14ppg
he would have to work hard to score that low...he made 5.5 shots per game last season in 10.6 attempts. He will get his 10+ shots, and his FG% should go up. He'll get more minutes and has improved his game and strength.
He will probably make at least 3 free throws per game.
6.5 made field goals and 3 made free throws is 16 PPG, and that's a pretty conservative estimate, imo.
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