Is it buy time? | Page 3 | TigerDroppings.com

Posted byMessage
mach316
LSU Fan
Jonesboro, AR
Member since Jul 2012
1786 posts

re: Is it buy time?


I can't figure why apple has dropped this much. Not sure if we've hit bottome either. Sold mine a few months ago.





Back to top
fishfighter
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Apr 2008
19843 posts

re: Is it buy time?


quote:

I can't figure why apple has dropped this much.


Read Big Fella post. He hit it on spot.






Back to top
mach316
LSU Fan
Jonesboro, AR
Member since Jul 2012
1786 posts

re: Is it buy time?


Big Fella does make some good points. Thanks..





Back to top
  Replies (0)
tiger perry
LSU Fan
Lafayette, LA
Member since Dec 2009
17381 posts

re: Is it buy time?


quote:

Sold mine a few months ago.


same here






Back to top
tiger perry
LSU Fan
Lafayette, LA
Member since Dec 2009
17381 posts

re: Is it buy time?


quote:

ThaBigFella



you bring some excellent analysis to this board. Just bought some PM (Philip Morris International into my portfolio because of your insight






Back to top
  Replies (0)
ThaBigFella
LSU Fan
baton rouge
Member since Apr 2006
2043 posts

re: Is it buy time?


Thanks Tiger Perry FWIW, I know apple will be fine,they're not going bankrupt they have close to $200B in the bank and their next product release will be a smash hit. It's just a matter of when will that happen....

Like I said before, there are a few catalysts on the horizon that could happen at anytime

1.China Mobile deal - the biggest phone carrier on the planet with over over 700M users,yes double the american population in phone users, doesnt subsidize the iphone currently. There's a plethora of reasons, a big one is the 4g network capability isn't there but they're building it out now, another big reason is china mobile won't give in to apple's demands, they're making money hand over fist without apple so they won't give in and pay apple what they want, pretty big F U to the biggest company on earth

2.A cheaper iphone - emerging market users cannot afford iphones which often cost much more overseas and typically don't have the subsidies we have here. We have nearly 7B people on this planet and the good majority can't afford an iphone, something cheaper could add alot more users and thus more users to the app store, win win all across

3.Apple TV - they talk about this alot and it just makes sense. I mean why would I ever go to redbox if i could just download it off my TV. I know the detachable console exists but it's different when it's built in. Im sure if they ever develop this it will look awesome and many will buy it but to this point there have been no announcements, just rumors stemming from a few things tim cook said.

If any of those things happen the stock will go up. I personally think apple is letting the stock slide on purpose so their newly announced $60B share buyback can be done on the cheap and to a bigger scale.

I just don't care about that type of risk/reward anymore, I have enough money now where I just wanna grow what I have conservatively and went another route, but Apple should be a decent investment moving forward.....Im pretty sure that Russian billionaire did his homework before sinking $100M a month ago.



This post was edited on 6/23 at 10:46 am


Back to top
mach316
LSU Fan
Jonesboro, AR
Member since Jul 2012
1786 posts

re: Is it buy time?


Big Fella, I'm liking your ideas about buying stocks that will do well abroad that offer nice dividends like KO and PM. Any other suggestions like these that you feel are somewhat protected from economic turmoil?

Aslo, how do you feel about EFT's like the XLP that will also give you exposure to these companies with a nice dividend? TIA







Back to top
ThaBigFella
LSU Fan
baton rouge
Member since Apr 2006
2043 posts

re: Is it buy time?


look at XLP top holding 3 holdings and 33% of their total portfolio....

procter gamble
coke
Phillip morris

haha.....

Look, like I said I don't index, that etf is nice it has a 2.69% yield, coke yields 2.82%,PM 3.92% and PG 3.11%.....why not buy those 3 together, seems like you'd get a 3.4% yield give or take.

That's almost a percent higher which I know doesn't sound like much but again think 30-40 years down the road and a 3M portfolio that near 1 percent is $25k/year more in dividend and there's no .18% management fee which on $3M is $5,400/year or me paying $450/month to have someone tell me to buy coke,phillip morris, and Procter gamble

These big money managers rely on the ignorance of the masses. I do my own homework, I respect their line of work, but I'm not giving someone that much money to basically buy what I can on my own. Sure they're better at timing and have inside information and know when to get in and out, but I do to, get in time is today, get out time....ill leave that to my heirs to decide when i die.



This post was edited on 6/23 at 11:16 am


Back to top
mach316
LSU Fan
Jonesboro, AR
Member since Jul 2012
1786 posts

re: Is it buy time?








Back to top
  Replies (0)
tiger perry
LSU Fan
Lafayette, LA
Member since Dec 2009
17381 posts

re: Is it buy time?


oh, by the way, I manage a tobacco wholesale in Lafayette. We sell throughout Louisiana if you ever need our products, let me know





Back to top
  Replies (0)
Jake88
George Mason Fan
LSU/Saints Fan
Member since Apr 2005
9880 posts

re: Is it buy time?


I bought PM at $92.58. I wish I had procrastinated like usual.





Back to top
mach316
LSU Fan
Jonesboro, AR
Member since Jul 2012
1786 posts

re: Is it buy time?


That's the kind of shite that happens to me





Back to top
ThaBigFella
LSU Fan
baton rouge
Member since Apr 2006
2043 posts

re: Is it buy time?


Relax man $92.58 is a great price, a giant market sell off happened, what went up in the last week? nothing changed with the company... you realize you're getting an .85 dividend next week so your net price is $91.73 and then in september the dividend is going to $.96/quarter....in a year your net price will be $87...just relax investing isn't week to week, that's trading...your current price gives you a 4% yield in September. What's the yield on your bank account?


This post was edited on 6/24 at 12:16 pm


Back to top
jimbeam
USA Fan
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
33675 posts

re: Is it buy time?


quote:

$.96/quarter
:|






Back to top
ThaBigFella
LSU Fan
baton rouge
Member since Apr 2006
2043 posts

re: Is it buy time?


That's why I said I liked pm more than visa for the sell off factor now your high yield allows you to buy an even bigger stake at a lower price. That's why it's a win win in my book, price goes up you win, price goes down more shares at a lower price and higher income.





Back to top
  Replies (0)
Jake88
George Mason Fan
LSU/Saints Fan
Member since Apr 2005
9880 posts

re: Is it buy time?


I'm actually relaxed about it. Your posts a couple weeks ago motivated me to buy PM, MCD and COP. That day I also heard that maybe Bernanke was getting cold feet about the taper and I got concerned that I'd be paying more if I didnt grab them then.


I'm in this for at least another 25 years and have bought and held XOM, PEP, HD, STT, CLX, JNJ, etc. for the last 11 years. It just would have been a bit more satisfactory to have grabbed it at less than 90.






Back to top
Ace Midnight
LSU Fan
Currently asymptomatic
Member since Dec 2006
33469 posts

re: Is it buy time?


quote:

Relax man $92.58 is a great price, a giant market sell off happened, what went up in the last week? nothing changed with the company... you realize you're getting an .85 dividend next week so your net price is $91.73 and then in september the dividend is going to $.96/quarter....in a year your net price will be $87...just relax investing isn't week to week, that's trading...your current price gives you a 4% yield in September. What's the yield on your bank account?


This is where your analysis is brilliant - yes, there are opportunity costs, but, hang around long enough, those shares you buy today are free - and continuing to provide income for your entire life.






Back to top
  Replies (0)
ThaBigFella
LSU Fan
baton rouge
Member since Apr 2006
2043 posts

re: Is it buy time?


You're right jake, look I would've loved to have known it was coming down to $86, I too bought at $92 bc I calculated the forward yield and loved the 4% that was coming in september.

I did buy more last week at $87/88 but I can't really time the market, nobody can. All I know is for me, its on sale at 10% off its highs of the year. The company is fundamentally the same, and the sell off is due to a general market sell off. I really think this price in the mid 80's is a steal, could a broader sell off make it lower? sure, but I don't wanna wait for a maybe, i buy when i have money, if, the price fits into my long term valuation of the company

The price will fall further tomorrow since its ex-div day fwiw

but with $6.23/share earnings projected for 2014 its trading at a very cheap 13.9x forward earnings with a 3.9% dividend, thats incredible for a company growing at the rate it's growing.Most growth stocks offer little to no dividend and trade at much higher valuations

1.visa
2.google
3.baidu
4.amazon

those are 4 i can think of off the top of my head as high growth companies and the valuations they trade at are staggering. PM is not like most blue chips in the fact it is still growing rapidly, most blue chips are very low growth, low dividend growth investments. The past 5 years, it's only 5 in existence as it's own entity have been very high growth and very high dividend growth for PM. I look for more of the same in the near future bc of the catalysts i listed earlier.






Back to top
Ace Midnight
LSU Fan
Currently asymptomatic
Member since Dec 2006
33469 posts

re: Is it buy time?


quote:

but with $6.23/share earnings projected for 2014 its trading at a very cheap


The dividend is going to $0.93 per quarter in 2014, most likely.

Earnings will have to get to about $6.77 to support $4 per year in 2015, but that's only 8% growth - I'm optimistic.






Back to top
ThaBigFella
LSU Fan
baton rouge
Member since Apr 2006
2043 posts

re: Is it buy time?


Ace midnight, I pay monthly for fast graphs, which is one of the best tools on the planet for analyzing stocks. Their history of being correct is very accurate

This is what they have for PM over the next decade

2014 - $6.30 Earnings, $3.78/dividend
2015 - $7.01 Earnings, $4.21/dividend
2016 - $7.80 Earnings, $4.69/dividend
2017 - $8.69 Earnings, $5.22/dividend
2018 - $9.67 Earnings, $5.81/dividend
2019 - $10.76 Earnings, $6.46/dividend
2020 - $11.98 Earnings, $7.19/dividend
2021 - $13.33 Earnings, $8.01/dividend
2022 - $14.84 Earnings, $8.91/dividend

Projected 2015 fair price - $105.88
Projected 2022 fair price - $222.53

So from what they're projecting if you bought 1 share today and collected the dividend in cash and didn't reinvest those dividend, you'd get $55 in dividend reducing your effective price to $32 by 2022......obviously they won't be dead on, but I've used it for a long time, and they're pretty accurate on their estimates for quite some time

The thing with their dividend is the payout ratio, they payout 65% of earnings, lowest in the industry and growing rapidly, while most tobacco companies are in the 85-90% range, if PM get's there like many think it will later on this decade, look out $10+ dividends on current shares.



This post was edited on 6/24 at 1:34 pm


Back to top


Back to top