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Why does Fox Business News have guys saying "dont buy US Stocks"...

Posted on 2/28/13 at 6:13 pm
Posted by ThaBigFella
baton rouge
Member since Apr 2006
2043 posts
Posted on 2/28/13 at 6:13 pm
I mean I am a republican and I love fox but wtf this is unpatriotic to me. They should be rallying people behind the country, they just had some guy stating the days of investing in american equities are over and that long term buy and hold is dead

Why does everyone act like this short term negative economy we're facing is gonna be the end. This analyst said we won't see 14000 again for years into the future......Im as negative as anyone on the economy but Im pretty sure we'll see dow at 25,000 before we see it at 8,000 like this guy predicted..


anyone else feel the same?
This post was edited on 2/28/13 at 6:14 pm
Posted by CamdenTiger
Member since Aug 2009
62444 posts
Posted on 2/28/13 at 6:22 pm to
I'm with the analyst. Gov't has been spending and spending, propping it up. Every sign of bad news, means they'll just keep printing, and the market runs up. If we were growing our way out...maybe it would work, but debting our way out won't last long, and people have just given up working as the gov't keeps letting them suck on the tit. Current gov't has NOTHING...no ideas, and going to keep printing money to cover their wrong ideology. I'm not investing in this market...do what you want.
Posted by ThaBigFella
baton rouge
Member since Apr 2006
2043 posts
Posted on 2/28/13 at 6:26 pm to
Its been a proven a buy and hold approach of blue chips like coke,exxon,philip morris etc has not only beaten the market but beaten it handily with dividends reinvested, yes the short term may be ugly but in the long run if you try to time the market you will get killed. It's like someone the other day posted its about "time in the market, not timing the market" so unless your window is 3-5 years yes the market will be bumpy, but I promise itll beat your .001% savings rate......in 20 years you'll look back and laugh if you buy coke stock and let the dividends reinvest themselves

Read this one of my favorite pieces to show short term traders and investors

my favorite line from it "It is the reason that over the past 20 years, despite record-shattering trade deficits, trillion-dollar budgetary deficits, bitter partisan politics, a dot-com bubble, an Asian currency crisis, two wars, a real estate bubble, a near cataclysmic collapse of the financial sector, and high unemployment, a shareholder of Procter & Gamble could have turned a $100,000 investment into more than $1,200,000."

LINK
This post was edited on 2/28/13 at 6:32 pm
Posted by Vols&Shaft83
Throbbing Member
Member since Dec 2012
69911 posts
Posted on 2/28/13 at 6:45 pm to
quote:

I'm not investing in this market...do what you want.


Posted by CamdenTiger
Member since Aug 2009
62444 posts
Posted on 2/28/13 at 7:07 pm to
Back at you dumbass!
Posted by Janky
Team Primo
Member since Jun 2011
35957 posts
Posted on 2/28/13 at 7:40 pm to
So fox business is there to compete with cnbc. They have an analyst or fund manager on that says the market is over bought and you guys freak. Cnbc has at least 5 of these guys a day on. Up 14% since November so caution may be prudent.
Posted by CamdenTiger
Member since Aug 2009
62444 posts
Posted on 2/28/13 at 7:46 pm to
quote:

Up 14% since November so caution may be prudent.


Yeah, sound reasoning IMO.
Posted by tatervol
Lexington, TN
Member since Nov 2008
2158 posts
Posted on 2/28/13 at 7:59 pm to
So is their job to report or be a propaganda network?
Posted by Janky
Team Primo
Member since Jun 2011
35957 posts
Posted on 2/28/13 at 8:03 pm to
Analyst are there to give an opinion, that's it.
Posted by ThaBigFella
baton rouge
Member since Apr 2006
2043 posts
Posted on 2/28/13 at 8:11 pm to
I get we're on a huge run up BUT companies are cheaper than ever based on earnings

1.exxon - 9.5x earnings
2.chevron -8.5x earnings
3.coke - 19x earnings ( was 50x earnings in the 90s)
4.JP Morgan - 9x earnings

I see the sentiment for a pullback after a quick runup, but overall these companies are selling for crazy cheap, and yes the fundamentals of our economy suck: higher taxes,higher unemployment etc but these companies are so global now the US is not the only country they do business in majorly(chase excluded). More importantly with these high unemployment numbers, companies are leaner than ever and doing more with less......I really don't see a major crash coming like most.....does anyone else feel this way?
Posted by Janky
Team Primo
Member since Jun 2011
35957 posts
Posted on 2/28/13 at 8:19 pm to
Ok. I hear what you are saying, but if u look at the charts XOM and CVX pretty much follow the S&P. So, if you think the market might be overbought and will come back then maybe you can buy these cheaper in the near future......no?
Posted by ThaBigFella
baton rouge
Member since Apr 2006
2043 posts
Posted on 2/28/13 at 8:26 pm to
I mean goal as an investor is to build a dividend growth stream for 30 years from now. I could care less if I grab chevron at $116 today or $105 "if the market has a correction" that's for traders who are trading $100k here and there. My goal is to buy companies that have raised dividends consistently year over year and eventually have an income stream that beats inflation and Exxon and Chevron do that, so I own both.

If there's a 20% drop Ill buy alot more, but Im not gonna sit on the sidelines and wait for it, Ill dollar cost average down for sure, but 20-30 years from now there will have been many more crashes and I promise you buying chevron and reinvesting the dividends today whether at $116 or $85 in a market crash in the coming months will make no difference, you will be wealthy either way.....of course wealthier if you buy more at a lower price, but nonetheless WEALTHY so relax, buy every month and average down, don't buy the fear, stay out the market and enjoy the diminishing returns on your dollar in your .01% savings account? That's worse youre losing 4+% a year and getting no dividends

As to what I said about companies doing more with less

JP Morgan Chase is laying off 4000 tellers I read yet adding 100 new bank branches....more with less....sucks for the employees but the companies are healthier than ever and sitting on more cash than ever, the ones that have debt have refinanced the debt at crazy low rates like Altria and Philip Morris so theyre positioned well for the future
This post was edited on 2/28/13 at 8:30 pm
Posted by Janky
Team Primo
Member since Jun 2011
35957 posts
Posted on 2/28/13 at 8:39 pm to
Ok. We have different objectives. You manage for you and I manage for many. I don't buy to hold for 20 years. Good luck.
Posted by ThaBigFella
baton rouge
Member since Apr 2006
2043 posts
Posted on 2/28/13 at 8:42 pm to
Well I seem to be sleeping well at night and could care less about corrections while everyone else is panicking....so is my concept really that horrible? It's built the biggest amount of wealth for people over the years, it's a shame more people don't follow buy and hold principles with dollar cost averaging bc it reduces stress by ALOT

plus the only people panicking are those who

1) buy stock today and dont have enough to average down the cost in a big market correction
2)can't see that there has never been a 20 year period where you lost money if you reinvested dividends, its not even possible....these are the same people who feel amazon is a steal at 3600x earnings and pays no dividends....
3)have a window of less than 10 years to retirement
This post was edited on 2/28/13 at 8:49 pm
Posted by djmicrobe
Planet Earth
Member since Jan 2007
4970 posts
Posted on 2/28/13 at 8:48 pm to
No one is positioned well for the future we're on the verge of having.
When interest rates rise, we'll be in trouble.
When will that happen? No one knows. I do not know how long the Fed can continue their QE scheme and interest rates remain low.
Inflation is far higher to the average consumer (The one that spends a large portion of their income on food and energy) than the rate being reported.
A 3 or 4% dividend per year does not keep up with the real inflation rate the common family is experiencing.
Getting a return on one's money at this rate does not keep up with inflation.
Many food items are 10-20% higher yoy or more. Gas is up over 10% too.
As more of the consumers income is spent on food and energy the less the consumer can spend on a car, boat, house, college savings, etc.
The consumer is getting squeezed thanks to the Fed's trillion dollar spending sprees.
Salaries are not keeping up with the inflation rate of food and energy. This will affect growth which will affect stocks. This effect will last a long time unless the Fed allows a market correction and allows deflation to occur. That is the only hope the common man has, and the fed is fighting this daily.
You may disagree and that is fine. This is what I am seeing based on people I know.

Posted by ThaBigFella
baton rouge
Member since Apr 2006
2043 posts
Posted on 2/28/13 at 8:50 pm to
a 4% dividend does not beat inflation, but a 4% dividend that is raised like say Mcdonalds at over 20% a year on average over the last 10 years does.....look into the rule of 72 and investing in dividend titans....they don't pay 3% forever on your inital yield, that yield is boosted year over year....significantly in line with inflation and for all intensive purposes well above it

but again does your .01% savings account interest beat inflation? So what options do most people who aren't hedge fund managers with inside info have? Look in 2008 everyone said the dollar was done,we were all gonna be broke and gold was gonna be $5000....were still here there will always be problems but sitting on the sidelines isn't the answer. "time in the market is how you win,not timing"
This post was edited on 2/28/13 at 8:55 pm
Posted by CamdenTiger
Member since Aug 2009
62444 posts
Posted on 2/28/13 at 8:54 pm to
I think its a good strategy for you, and your risk tolerance. At 14,000. I can sit on some cash for a while. I'm in it for the long haul, as well, and will look for opportunities to get back in. Because I have a long time to invest, there's no rush.
Posted by Janky
Team Primo
Member since Jun 2011
35957 posts
Posted on 2/28/13 at 8:57 pm to
Plenty of people use buy and hold with DCA. Anyone with a 401k uses this strategy, just not with individual securities. I never said your concept is horrible. I was simply implying that if someone wanted to trade the market, things may be a little overbought. That's all.

Posted by cwill
Member since Jan 2005
54752 posts
Posted on 2/28/13 at 9:00 pm to
If you're republican it's ok to hate America while BHO is the pres.
Posted by matthew25
Member since Jun 2012
9425 posts
Posted on 2/28/13 at 11:30 pm to
Fidelity chief investment officer quoted last 3 weeks saying:


"About a dozen years ago, stocks were trading at an average of about 26 times their expected earnings. Now, they're trading at about half that level, or 13 times expected earnings, so stocks are relatively inexpensive. Earnings have roughly doubled over the last decade, but the market has basically been flat."
This post was edited on 2/28/13 at 11:33 pm
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