| Posted by | Message |
TigerPride10 
Columbia Fan
Seoul, Korea
Member since Jul 2007
8975 posts
 Online
| The biggest loser from yesterday's nuclear test: (Posted on 2/12/13 at 7:06 pm)
China
For the last two weeks, they have been pushing exceptionally hard against the North Korean government in an effort to cancel the test. They have failed, and it only shows the ineptitude of Chinese diplomats. In a time when even Russia has strongly condemned the test and South Korea holds the rotating presidency of the Security Council, the CCP couldn't afford to look weak. They did, and all reports from the earlier UNSC meeting show that they were embarrassed in front of the other powers.
It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few weeks. China will need to save face with just the few options that it has available to deal with the Kim regime.
This post was edited on 2/12 at 7:08 pm
|
| Back to top | Share on  |
Decatur 
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2007
14879 posts
Online
| re: The biggest loser from yesterday's nuclear test: (Posted on 2/12/13 at 7:08 pm to TigerPride10)
What are China's options?
Reduction of aid? What else?
|
| Back to top | |
CarrolltonTiger
LSU Fan
New Orleans
Member since Aug 2005
44012 posts
Online
| re: The biggest loser from yesterday's nuclear test: (Posted on 2/12/13 at 7:17 pm to TigerPride10)
quote:
They have failed, and it only shows the ineptitude of Chinese diplomats.
What would apt Chinese diplomats have done?
|
| Back to top | |
HailToTheChiz 
Auburn Fan
Behold, SKYWHALE!
Member since Aug 2010
4105 posts
| re: The biggest loser from yesterday's nuclear test: (Posted on 2/12/13 at 7:20 pm to CarrolltonTiger)
you think china is going to take the initiative?
|
| Back to top | |
Siderophore
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2010
3334 posts
| re: The biggest loser from yesterday's nuclear test: (Posted on 2/12/13 at 7:21 pm to CarrolltonTiger)
Indeed.
My impression was that it shows how unhinged NK is if they are blantantly disregarding pretty much their only friend in the world.
|
| Back to top | |
CarrolltonTiger
LSU Fan
New Orleans
Member since Aug 2005
44012 posts
Online
| re: The biggest loser from yesterday's nuclear test: (Posted on 2/12/13 at 7:25 pm to HailToTheChiz)
quote:
you think china is going to take the initiative?
I never gave any opinion, try to follow the thread. TP10 made a statment about Chinese ineptness bringing about or not preventing the (3rd?) test, I asked him what could have been done?
|
| Back to top | |
texashorn
Member since May 2008
1089 posts
| re: The biggest loser from yesterday's nuclear test: (Posted on 2/12/13 at 7:27 pm to TigerPride10)
I'm not convinced that China and Russia were sincerely against North Korea's efforts in the first place.
If someone would like to convince me, proceed. I don't trust those bastards and think those who do are naive.
|
| Back to top | |
TigerPride10
Columbia Fan
Seoul, Korea
Member since Jul 2007
8975 posts
Online
| re: The biggest loser from yesterday's nuclear test: (Posted on 2/12/13 at 7:31 pm to Decatur)
quote:
What are China's options?
Reduction of aid? What else?
An effective an easy option that could begin immediately would be border control. As of now, China quietly allows the North Koreans to smuggle missile parts and luxury goods across the Yalu. They also often turn the other way when both "wealthy" Koreans and impoverished young girls sneak across the border. The former goes into China to shop, the latter goes to become prostitutes. They both bring back badly needed foreign currency.
LINK
LINK
LINK
A more long term option would be to put more controls on Chinese banks that finance the Kim regime's less immediate concerns (e.g. aid for food and electricity). This would have the added bonus of severely curb money laundering, counterfeiting, and drug dealing. They could also stand aside and let the U.S. Treasury Department do the same. This doesn't require UN approval, but the U.S. has been reluctant to do it because of the ramifications. This has been done before with mixed results, most notably in 2005 when Treasury sanctioned Banco Delta in Macau, causing a major run on the bank.
Another option would be to require (as the West and South Korea do) the nuclear issue to be part of any further multilateral negotiations.
The options are limited, but they are greater in number than our own. They could effectively alter North Korea's behavior without inducing the ever-feared Korean horde of starving refugees from crossing the Yalu.
|
| Back to top | |
Decatur
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2007
14879 posts
Online
| re: The biggest loser from yesterday's nuclear test: (Posted on 2/12/13 at 7:34 pm to TigerPride10)
|
| Back to top | |
CarrolltonTiger
LSU Fan
New Orleans
Member since Aug 2005
44012 posts
Online
| re: The biggest loser from yesterday's nuclear test: (Posted on 2/12/13 at 7:45 pm to TigerPride10)
Got it. Sanctions, a rational leader in Pyongyang will cave and do the right thing just like we are making the leadership in Iran stop their nuclear endeavors. We could probably do something similar to Israel to make them give up their nukes. Diplomacy is a wonderful thing when you aren't inept.
|
| Back to top | |
Decatur
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2007
14879 posts
Online
| re: The biggest loser from yesterday's nuclear test: (Posted on 2/12/13 at 7:50 pm to CarrolltonTiger)
You got any better ideas?
|
| Back to top | |
CarrolltonTiger
LSU Fan
New Orleans
Member since Aug 2005
44012 posts
Online
| re: The biggest loser from yesterday's nuclear test: (Posted on 2/12/13 at 7:59 pm to Decatur)
quote:
You got any better ideas?
I'm not the one claiming diplomacy would have worked against NK. I also don't know what the Chinese did or will do. And if the NK's had pledged again to stop for some immoral or tasty carrot they may be back in the same place 4 months form now pusing the testing. They want nukes.
I also don't think the Chinese are worried sick about a humanitarin crisic on the Yalu. If they can commit genocide in tibet and supress the Wighers in SWChina ruthlessly, they have the stomach and the will to watch Koreans die. There also won't be a lot of media catching the action for the world news.
|
| Back to top | |
TigerPride10
Columbia Fan
Seoul, Korea
Member since Jul 2007
8975 posts
Online
| re: The biggest loser from yesterday's nuclear test: (Posted on 2/12/13 at 8:07 pm to CarrolltonTiger)
quote:
I'm not the one claiming diplomacy would have worked against NK.
How does anything get done in peacetime without negotiations? Why did the Chinese even bother putting forth the immense effort that they did if that's the case? But I'm sure you know more, considering you worked for some NGO in Eastern Europe 20 years ago.
quote:
And if the NK's had pledged again to stop for some immoral or tasty carrot
Sanctions are the stick, not the carrot.
quote:
they may be back in the same place 4 months form now pusing the testing.
There is a pattern to North Korean behavior. Such incidents usually happen in winter and spring. Understanding why the acts of provocation happen when they do is a good first step in learning how to curb it.
quote:
They want nukes.
They have nukes. Diplomatic measures have worked in the past with regards to their supply of plutonium. There's no reason why the same effort couldn't be applied to their HUE program.
quote:
I also don't think the Chinese are worried sick about a humanitarin crisic on the Yalu.
This is one place I agree with you, and my comment above on the matter was made partially in jest. Their most pressing concern regarding a collapse of the government is not a humanitarian one, but a security one. They simply will not allow another hostile state to reside along the border, thus further encircling the Chinese mainland.
|
| Back to top | |
CarrolltonTiger
LSU Fan
New Orleans
Member since Aug 2005
44012 posts
Online
| re: The biggest loser from yesterday's nuclear test: (Posted on 2/12/13 at 8:18 pm to TigerPride10)
quote:
How does anything get done in peacetime without negotiations?
I'm not against diplomacy, I'm saying I don't think they would have worked in this case. Believe what you choose. I'm sure you are better informed about Chinese diplomacy than the Chinese themselves.
quote:
Sanctions are the stick, not the carrot.
I know the difference and the relationship, I think your links suggested both, I think NK is out for carrots they can allow the population to endure sanctions.
Again, believe what you choose.
quote:
They simply will not allow another hostile state to reside along the border, thus further encircling the Chinese mainland.
Seems like you are providing a very good reason for China not to press the issue and not to use sanctions against NK, perhaps a nuclear NK is less distasteful to China than destabilization on the border. They prefer the status quo with nukes rather than domestic instability.
And what hostile state do you see going into the NK vacuum? Is SK or the US going to invest in nation building? Does japan want its old colony back? Will China lend us the money to reconstruct NK?
|
| Back to top | |
DownshiftAndFloorIt
LSU Fan
The devil dreams on an idle horse
Member since Jan 2011
30454 posts
| re: The biggest loser from yesterday's nuclear test: (Posted on 2/12/13 at 8:20 pm to TigerPride10)
Whoa whoa whoa
RUSSIA sincerely condemns N Korea having nukes?
|
| Back to top | |
davesdawgs 
Georgia Fan
Georgia
Member since Oct 2008
10982 posts
| re: The biggest loser from yesterday's nuclear test: (Posted on 2/12/13 at 9:08 pm to TigerPride10)
quote:
For the last two weeks, China has pretended to be against the North Korean government in an effort to make the Security Council believe that they actually want NK to cancel the nuclear test. They have succeeded in duping the Security Council members which demonstrates the skill of the Chinese diplomats.
FIFY 
|
| Back to top | |
JawjaTigah
LSU Fan
South of Tampa
Member since Sep 2003
9707 posts
| re: The biggest loser from yesterday's nuclear test: (Posted on 2/12/13 at 9:19 pm to DownshiftAndFloorIt)
quote:
RUSSIA sincerely condemns N Korea having nukes?
I guess it's time to round up the usual suspects...
|
| Back to top | |
IceTiger 
USA Fan
OKC
Member since Oct 2007
8905 posts
| re: The biggest loser from yesterday's nuclear test: (Posted on 2/12/13 at 9:45 pm to TigerPride10)
Meh, China acts all gooey over it, but secretly they love having that nut across the border.
Benefits:
Civil rights in dprk are far worse than in china and the US can't act on the Chinese for stuff dprk does
Dprk will be a proxy offensive if foreign pressure gets bad
Cheap hookers
Virtually free weapons research
Cheap weapons if they need them
A patsy
|
| Back to top | |
