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| Posted by | Message | blueslover 
New Orleans Saints Fan
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Member since Sep 2007
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| Potential Saints Draft Pick Talk, post SB pre Combine Edition (Posted on 2/6/13 at 9:15 am)
3-4 NT and 3-4OLB look very ripe for matching need to BPA. My current 3-4 targets and estimated chance of being available:
NT
Lotulelei 0%
Hankins 50%
John Jenkins 95%
OLB
Jarvis Jones 10% unless medical red flags kick in, then higher
Damontre Moore 5%
Mingo 50%
Dion Jordan 60%
the latest:
Mingo- While there is no debate as to Mingo’s athleticism, there definitely is a split as to where he should be drafted and how successful he can be in the NFL. An explosive athlete with rare first step quickness, Mingo can get to the turn point in a flash and has the athleticism to beat OT inside and out. However, more than a few scouts I spoke to wondered why he did not make an impact in every game he played and wasn’t LSU’s most productive pass rusher. Not only are NFL people split on Mingo’s production, but some wonder if his lack of consistent production comes from a lack of aggressiveness and size. His tendency to get upright and lose the leverage battle hinders his ability to shed and get off blocks once they engage him. I have no doubt that Mingo’s athleticism will jump out at the Combine and his Pro Day, which will lead to him being a first round pick, but to say that NFL people are split on how good of a player he will become is an understatement.
LINK
Chase Thomas- OLB Stanford (3rd or 4th Rd)- After a highly productive career playing outside linebacker in Stanford’s 34 defense, Thomas struggled when asked to play off the ball so often as a 43 outside linebacker at the Senior Bowl. When I spoke to scouts it was amazing how the split of opinions on how he would do in the NFL was almost completely based on defensive scheme. For those teams that play 43 defenses where outside linebackers need to excel in coverage, Thomas’ value is low. However, for 34 teams he is viewed as a potential starter who could be drafted as early as the third round. NFL people told us that when Thomas is going forward rushing the passer and playing the run that he looks like a future starting linebacker, but when he plays off the ball in coverage he does not look like a player who can contribute on an NFL defense. It will be interesting to see where Thomas ends up being drafted after hearing such varying opinions about his NFL potential.
LINK
Jarvis Jones- Georgia outside linebacker Jarvis Jones had been one of the most dominant football players in college football the past two seasons. He's destroyed the SEC for those two years, as many consider him to be one of the most talented players in the 2013 NFL Draft class. Jones is on top of my 2013 NFL Draft Big Board, as well as ESPN's Mel Kiper's.
However, after speaking with scouts at the East-West Shrine Game who have Jones in their territory, they say they expect Jones to slide down and fall out of the top five next April.
The scouts said there are a few reasons that could add up to Jones falling into the 6-10 range. First of all, the scouts said that Jones is not a good workout guy. They don't believe that he is going to test well or stand out in the Combine or pre-draft workouts. Area scouts who cover Georgia say that Jones is not a weight-room guy. He doesn't put a lot of work in during the week, but would show up on Saturday and dominate naturally.
They said that Jones is a good guy and a good teammate, but just isn't a tireless worker. As one scout said, "Don't get me wrong, if you watch his tapes you'll say he is worth being the No. 1 rated player and going in the top five of the draft. You can watch him on Saturdays and see that this guy is animal. He's clearly the best player on the field, but not a guy that you'll be in love with during the week. Add in the medical concern and with the testing, and I think he's going to slide some on Draft Day."
Jones' medical condition is a spinal stenosis that happened as a freshman at USC. On a routine hit against Oregon, Jones sustained the injury. A specialist told him he would be fine, but USC's doctors wouldn't clear him and told him he should retire from football. After transferring to Georgia, Jones broke out as one of the best players in college football.
LINK
Hankins- Overall, I’m not sure why Hankins is rated so highly by most analysts. He certainly has potential, but he doesn’t consistently fire off of the ball. There’s burst to his game, but he displays it so infrequently that you have to wonder if decreased NFL snaps will really help him that much. For being an average or even slightly below-average pass-rushing defensive tackle, you’d expect Hankins to be an absolutely dominant run defender. He’s really good in that area, but not to the extent that any team should be using a top 10 pick on the guy.
NFL Comparison: Aubrayo Franklin
Like Hankins, veteran defensive tackle Aubrayo Franklin is a run-stuffer up the middle. Franklin hasn’t registered a sack since 2009, and while I don’t think Hankins will be that poor as a pass-rusher at the next level, I think he’s going to struggle to stay on the field in passing situations. That’s fine, but probably not worthy of a first-round pick.
Projection: Hankins could potentially get selected in the top 10, although it’s more likely that he’ll fall into the teens. In my view, Hankins is a mid- or even late-second round talent that’s going to be poor value for whoever picks him.
LINK
Hankins was a highly productive defensive tackle for Ohio State the past two seasons. He was second on the team in tackles in 2011 with 67 and had 55 as a junior while facing double teams. An NFL team will have to monitor his snap counts so he doesn't wear down. Will probably have to continue working on his fitness.
Was criticized by coaches as a freshman for wearing too much and was called a two-down player by defensive coordinator Jim Heacock. Dropped down to 330 pounds as a sophomore and 317 as a junior. Still, NFL teams may be wary of his weight issues.
As we saw with Dontari Poe in the 2012 draft, massive defensive tackles with athleticism get picked early. The same will likely happen with Hankins.
Pro comparison: Phil Taylor, Cleveland Browns
LINK
Jenkins- NFL Network's Mike Mayock called Georgia NT John Jenkins' hot-and-cold motor the biggest concern for Jenkins' NFL outlook.
"When he's healthy, when he's not winded, when he turns that motor on, it's special," Mayock said. "And you want him to be your 3-4 nose tackle or your nose shade in the 4-3. You want this kid as a two-gapping run stuffer. You want him pushing the pocket. But too often, you don't see that." Motor is often a concern for mammoth defensive linemen. Jenkins weighed in at an unruly 6-foot-3 7/8 and 359 pounds this week.
LINK
Jordan- Have been told Dion Jordan/Oregon likely to workout at combine and wait on (shoulder) surgery. Expect more in few days.
LINK
This post was edited on 2/6 at 9:19 am
| | Back to top | Share on  | mm2316
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| re: Potential Saints Draft Pick Talk, post SB pre Combine Edition (Posted on 2/6/13 at 9:22 am to blueslover)
quote:
Chase Thomas
Would be a good pick up in the 3rd-4th
| | Back to top | | Suntiger 
USA Fan
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18360 posts
| re: Potential Saints Draft Pick Talk, post SB pre Combine Edition (Posted on 2/6/13 at 9:59 am to blueslover)
I think Mingo works better as a 3-4 OLB (although I thought he'd also be a good 4-3 DE)
I think he is similar to Demarcus Ware out of college.
Both DEs considered "tweeners".
Mingo: 6'5" 240 lbs.
Ware: 6'4" 251 lbs.
Ware in 4 years: 195 tackles, 57 tackles for loss, 27.5 sacks, 10 forced fumbles with 3 fumble recoveries and one interception.
Mingo in 3 years (w/ more competition): 119 tackles, 29 tackles for loss, 15 sacks, 11 batted passes and 4 forced fumles with 3 fumble recoveries.
quote:
Jenkins- NFL Network's Mike Mayock called Georgia NT John Jenkins' hot-and-cold motor the biggest concern for Jenkins' NFL outlook.
"When he's healthy, when he's not winded, when he turns that motor on, it's special," Mayock said. "And you want him to be your 3-4 nose tackle or your nose shade in the 4-3. You want this kid as a two-gapping run stuffer. You want him pushing the pocket. But too often, you don't see that." Motor is often a concern for mammoth defensive linemen. Jenkins weighed in at an unruly 6-foot-3 7/8 and 359 pounds this week.
| | Back to top | | blueslover
New Orleans Saints Fan
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Member since Sep 2007
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| re: Potential Saints Draft Pick Talk, post SB pre Combine Edition (Posted on 2/6/13 at 10:09 am to Suntiger)
or 
3-4OLB pass rushers are definitely more exciting but I gotta admit I'm leery about any #15 NT after the debacle of Fried Chicken Sullivan at #6 and disappointing play of Fatass Ellis at #7.
| | Back to top | | LSUTIGERS8181 
LSU Fan
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Member since Aug 2012
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| re: Potential Saints Draft Pick Talk, post SB pre Combine Edition (Posted on 2/6/13 at 10:15 am to blueslover)
Would love Mingo in New Orleans
| | Back to top | | Shankopotomus
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| re: Potential Saints Draft Pick Talk, post SB pre Combine Edition (Posted on 2/6/13 at 10:34 am to Suntiger)
Jenkins has Sullivan written all over him...I would be leery on that one.
Mingo would be instant fan-favorite....and really can our pass rush really get any worse?!
| | Back to top | | Midget Death Squad 
Lamar Fan
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Member since Oct 2008
3506 posts
| re: Potential Saints Draft Pick Talk, post SB pre Combine Edition (Posted on 2/6/13 at 10:35 am to blueslover)
after reading all of this, I'd much rather a CB, ILB, S or LT at the #15 spot. To me there are too many concerns with every one of these guys to be worthy of a Mid 1st pick. Granted, this is based solely on these writeups in this thread.
I believe the need vs bpa debate comes into play here. I am a firm believer in drafting bpa over need in the 1st round. Ideally the bpa fits a need, but it's not wise to take a chance and reach for someone based on need and miss.
What are the other prospects like at LT, S, CB and ILB? I think it's short sighted to focus strictly on NT and OLB, especially since 3-4OLB is quite often filled in rds 2-4 (s/a the 3rd round guy you referenced)
This post was edited on 2/6 at 10:38 am
| | Back to top | | blueslover
New Orleans Saints Fan
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Member since Sep 2007
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| re: Potential Saints Draft Pick Talk, post SB pre Combine Edition (Posted on 2/6/13 at 10:46 am to Midget Death Squad)
LT could be should be clearly defined after free agency. Bushrod could easily be let go. There are a number of quality LT UFAs that would make the need null. Charles Brown could be a possibility. We've seen him a lot more than Bushrod before he took over at starter. Unfortunately, most prolly think what we've seen gives little indication that he is ready. If that's what we have going into the draft, LT skyrockets on need IMO.
I gave a scenario of this of using the money needed for Bushhog or another UFA LT on defense then going LT in the draft.
| | Back to top | | Suntiger
USA Fan
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| re: Potential Saints Draft Pick Talk, post SB pre Combine Edition (Posted on 2/6/13 at 10:56 am to Midget Death Squad)
quote:
after reading all of this, I'd much rather a CB, ILB, S or LT at the #15 spot. To me there are too many concerns with every one of these guys to be worthy of a Mid 1st pick. Granted, this is based solely on these writeups in this thread.
There's going to be concerns with anyone in the 10-20 range. Top 5/10 are usually considered "safe" like Jockel. 15-20 are high risk/reward guys who are right on the cusp of being great or average and after 20, you just want to get the left over top talent. I question the Tackles after Jockel. They'll go too high IMO. And the Safetys will likely go later in the 1st.
That's my thoughts anyway.
| | Back to top | | Midget Death Squad
Lamar Fan
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Member since Oct 2008
3506 posts
| re: Potential Saints Draft Pick Talk, post SB pre Combine Edition (Posted on 2/6/13 at 12:01 pm to Suntiger)
quote:
15-20 are high risk/reward guys who are right on the cusp of being great or average
This is true for the premium positions (LT, QB, DE, DT); however, high quality S and ILB go around this spot. Usually BPA at this point is a G, S, ILB and even CB. Whatever they decide to do I will be supportive of. We have so many needs that they can't possibly make a wrong decision if they go BPA
| | Back to top | | kclsufan
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| re: Potential Saints Draft Pick Talk, post SB pre Combine Edition (Posted on 2/6/13 at 12:15 pm to blueslover)
My concern with Mingo is his pass coverage skills. I just don't know enough about him to know how he'll do with this. Maybe someone here has more insight.
| | Back to top | | Midget Death Squad
Lamar Fan
3 docks down from the bait shop
Member since Oct 2008
3506 posts
| re: Potential Saints Draft Pick Talk, post SB pre Combine Edition (Posted on 2/6/13 at 1:35 pm to kclsufan)
quote:
Mingo is his pass coverage skills
much less of a requirement for 3-4 OLB as opposed to 4-3. pass rush, pass rush, run support, zone coverage, man coverage... that's the order of importance
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