Looking Ahead 2013 Fantasy Draft | TigerDroppings.com

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tduecen
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Looking Ahead 2013 Fantasy Draft


Usually running backs are taken with first few picks, but is having an elite QB and WR's more important?
As NFL shifts to a more pass friendly league having a top 5 QB seems to be key along with top 10 receivers.
Or because they have so few elite running backs is that the way to go?

Only 7 running backs have double digit rushing touchdowns, with a few more within striking distance in week 17. Only 4 maybe 5 have a shot at 1500 yards and as far as receiving only Sproles, Rice, Reese,J. Bell, and Richardson have 50 receptions with McCoy, Martin, J. Rodgers, Forte, and Spiller with striking distance.

QB's you have 8 with over 4000 yards and another 4/5 who can achieve that and 3 on pace for 5k. But only 5 have 30+ touchdowns and then the 6th has 26 touchdowns.








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BhamTigah
LSU Fan
Lurker since Jan 2003
Member since Jan 2007
8655 posts

re: Looking Ahead 2013 Fantasy Draft


You just made an argument against your own point. The fact that so few running backs stand out compared to their counterparts tells you those few running backs should be the first players taken.

Based on your data, 8 owners (67% in a 12 team league) will get a qb with over 4,000 yards. Again based on your data, as many as 13 qbs will achieve this, meaning every owner will get one. Based on that, why would I want to draft one too early?






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tduecen
Tulane Fan
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re: Looking Ahead 2013 Fantasy Draft


Because you can grab running backs later who will put up similar stats. Outside of Foster with 14 touchdowns pretty much every starting RB has between 7-11 rushing touchdowns. The drop off in yards isn't significant either except after Peterson. Granted I could make this argument about quarterbacks as well as yards with the top 10 is similar but touchdowns is where the big difference is.
Also elite QB's score more overall, using league I played in (PPR) you had 5 QB's with 300+ points (4 point TD passes) and only 1 RB over 275 points (Peterson)

Top 3 RB's based on many drafts (Foster, McCoy, Rice) finished 2,20, 4 among running back scores

Top 3 QB's based on many drafts (Brady, Rodgers, Brees) finished 1,3,2 among QB scores also highest scores in our league.







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BhamTigah
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Member since Jan 2007
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re: Looking Ahead 2013 Fantasy Draft


quote:

Also elite QB's score more overall, using league I played in (PPR) you had 5 QB's with 300+ points (4 point TD passes) and only 1 RB over 275 points (Peterson)


This is a faulty argument because you shouldn't care who scores more points overall, but how much they outscore others at their position. It's called value based drafting. How much do the elite guys at the position outscore average starters at the same position? That is the question you have to ask yourself when deciding who to take in the first round.

quote:

Top 3 RB's based on many drafts (Foster, McCoy, Rice) finished 2,20, 4 among running back scores

Top 3 QB's based on many drafts (Brady, Rodgers, Brees) finished 1,3,2 among QB scores also highest scores in our league.


IMO, this is the best argument for drafting a qb early. Typically, they are easier to predict than rbs. However, I would say the RB projections were more consistent than they appear. McCoy was hurt, and injuries happen. The #1 guy would typically be drafted in the top 2, but was coming off a major injury and no one knew what to expect.



This post was edited on 12/28 at 9:05 am


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tduecen
Tulane Fan
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Member since Nov 2006
103304 posts

re: Looking Ahead 2013 Fantasy Draft


The gap for QB's is lessening due to the rules changing... However, in same breath so is gap for RB's, outside of Peterson season.

Guy who won my TD league did it with Steven Jackson, LeShoure, Willis McGahee at RB for season but had P. Manning, Dez, and Wayne at Receiver. Of course the runner up had combination of Schaub/R. Wilson at QB with Spiller, Peterson, Rice at RB and Cobb, Shorts, T. Smith at receiver. So obvious the argument can go both ways lol






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Vicks Kennel Club
USA Fan
Fire Jurgen
Member since Dec 2010
18669 posts

re: Looking Ahead 2013 Fantasy Draft


The goal with your early picks is not to pick the top player, but ones that are least likely to flame out. This is why you pick the QB early.

Rodgers, Brees, and Brady were drafted as the top three QB's. Look at where they ended. Very rarely do top QB's flame out.

On the other hand, the turnover of RB's is risky. Teams are far more likely to move a new back than a new QB. Furthermore, the player who ends up in the endzone with TD's are pretty damn random. Look at Shady with his decrease in TD's from like 20 to 4 or 5 (despite missing games - the TD pace fell precipitously).

Foster, Rice, and McCoy were the top three RB's drafted. You hit on two out of three and only one of the three ended up in the top three (of course, Arian in fourth is not bad at all).

Just too much of a risk taking a RB first when you get Brees, Rodgers, or Brady.






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BhamTigah
LSU Fan
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Member since Jan 2007
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re: Looking Ahead 2013 Fantasy Draft


No doubt that you can win with different draft strategies. I personally won two different leagues this year with totally different draft strategies.

Keep in mind that we are only talking about who should be taken with the first few picks of the draft. Just looking at qbs and rbs, another important factor is knowing your opponents. If you draft 1 or 2 next year and take Foster or Peterson, what qb will be available at the end of the 2nd? If you take Rodgers, what RB will be available?

There are many factors, and not necessarily right/wrong answers. These are always the most discussed questions, but the draft is never won in those first few picks.






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citgojosh27
LSU Fan
lake charles
Member since Aug 2008
469 posts

re: Looking Ahead 2013 Fantasy Draft


Imo its all about getting the right value for each position. For example, in 7 money leagues this year and remarkably went 7-0 with 1rst place finishes. All different leagues with different scoring anywhere from 8 - 20 teams. The number of teams In the league is going to play a big part. For example. Everything over 14 teams I would take an elite qb with a high pick bc the pt differential bw the top and guys that you can grab in a later round will be huge as compared to being able to get somewhat decent rb n wr production in the same situation. In my 12 team and fewer leagues I stock piled early on top rbs and wrs and took a couple gambles on position players such as cj spiller and Cobb. By doing that was able to grab Matt Ryan in the later rounds of multiple drafts bc I felt their offense would explode this year. The gamble paid off and got huge production out of Ryan but still would of won w slightly above average production out of him. All In all I think its just value based drafting and what you feel you can get in the later rounds either way.





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Evolve
LSU Fan
Texas
Member since Aug 2012
1466 posts

re: Looking Ahead 2013 Fantasy Draft


The best team I had this year out of 3 teams I drafted the best available RB's the first three rounds. A quality QB/WR is much easier to find in rounds 5 or later rather than skip out on RB's. There are just so few taleted majority carry RB's right now.

It also depends on the scoring. If your QB gets 6 pts per passing TD then it could be worth it to draft a elite QB early. If your QB only get 4 pts passing TD then I'm waiting till after round 5. Look at how many people were able to nab Matt Ryan so late and look how he produced. Not to mention the rookies grabed in later than 8th rounds Wilson, RG3, Luck.






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TulaneTigerFan
Tulane Fan
Seattle
Member since Sep 2005
35856 posts

re: Looking Ahead 2013 Fantasy Draft


QB seems pretty deep next year. There are at least 8 I wouldn't mind having, so I'll probably hold off pretty late on QB next season. My personal rankings will probably have Megatron higher than most. I'd take him over just about any player other than Peterson in our league next season





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tduecen
Tulane Fan
The internet
Member since Nov 2006
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re: Looking Ahead 2013 Fantasy Draft


Looking at QB next year you could have
Rodgers
Brees
Brady
P. Manning
Ryan
T. Romo
RGIII
Cam
Luck

Stafford and Eli both had disappointing seasons after having a huge 2011 and could not follow it up. Bradford had a big year under the radar and Freeman/Flacco were very hit and miss.

Wilson came on at the end of the year as well, but like I stated earlier the Top 3 you know they will reach 4500 yards and 30+ touchdowns everyone else is hope.






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TigerTatorTots
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Mandeville, LA
Member since Jul 2009
64984 posts

re: Looking Ahead 2013 Fantasy Draft


AP, Foster, Rice will still be in the top 4 for me, along with Calvin.


I have never won a league drafting a QB in the 1st. Personal preference. I can normally hit on a QB in the mid/late rounds (Matt Ryan this year). I find it too hard to catch up at skill positions by going QB first



This post was edited on 12/28 at 11:11 am


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TulaneTigerFan
Tulane Fan
Seattle
Member since Sep 2005
35856 posts

re: Looking Ahead 2013 Fantasy Draft


I think Wilson and Kaep could both be solid next season also. Even if they don't blow up as often as some of the others, they should have pretty high floors thanks to the running yards/TDs





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tduecen
Tulane Fan
The internet
Member since Nov 2006
103304 posts

re: Looking Ahead 2013 Fantasy Draft


Thinking if I had first pick who would I go with....

Rice, McCoy, Foster, Peterson, D. Martin?
Or go with a QB in Rodgers, Brees, Brady and then grab a back in 2nd/3rd round such as Spiller, Lynch, Bush, A. Morris, or McFadden.






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TigerTatorTots
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Mandeville, LA
Member since Jul 2009
64984 posts

re: Looking Ahead 2013 Fantasy Draft


I doubt Lynch will be a 2nd rounder next year. Dude has had 2 really good back to back seasons.


As of right now, my next year top 4 would be:

1a-AP
1b-Foster
3-Calvin
4-Rice


I only play PPR leagues






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bbrownso
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2008
2644 posts

re: Looking Ahead 2013 Fantasy Draft


It really depends on the value of where you pick them. Looking at my league's picks and the playoff teams, all 6 of the playoffs teams had picked their starting QB by the 4th round. The teams that drafted the other 3 QBs (Brees, Rodgers, Eli Manning) taken in the first 4 rounds were hurt by a lack of consistency and injuries to other positions.

That makes me think that I shouldn't wait too long to grab a QB but that with the emergence of some younger QBs, I can grab a WR or RB and wait a round or two before grabbing a QB.






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tduecen
Tulane Fan
The internet
Member since Nov 2006
103304 posts

re: Looking Ahead 2013 Fantasy Draft


So Top 12 (in no particular order)
1. Rodgers
2. Brees
3. Brady
4. Calvin
5. Foster
6. Rice
7. McCoy
8. Peterson
9. D. Martin
10. AJ Green
11. Gronk
12. Lynch

Possibly?






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bbrownso
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2008
2644 posts

re: Looking Ahead 2013 Fantasy Draft


quote:

1. Rodgers
2. Brees
3. Brady
4. Calvin
5. Foster
6. Rice
7. McCoy
8. Peterson
9. D. Martin
10. AJ Green
11. Gronk
12. Lynch


Assuming 6 pt passing TDs, I'd put Brady at #1. The Patriots love throwing the ball.

Very preliminary top 12 in 2013:
#1 Brady
#2 Rodgers
#3 Brees
#4 Calvin (could be lower if they don't upgrade the line/other wide receivers)
#5 Rice
#6 Peterson (could be higher if they upgrade their WR/QB)
#7 Foster
#8 Martin
#9 A.J. Green
#10 Lynch
#11 McCoy
#12 Graham



This post was edited on 12/28 at 11:58 am


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laxer17
LSU Fan
NOLA
Member since Jan 2012
3452 posts

re: Looking Ahead 2013 Fantasy Draft


I won my league this year by going forte,mjd,aj green,l fitz,vernon Davis,rivers. Unfortunately, almost none of those worked out but i managed to get some trades to win. Next year, I think im going to go with the sure pick, instead of chancing it





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TigerTatorTots
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Mandeville, LA
Member since Jul 2009
64984 posts

re: Looking Ahead 2013 Fantasy Draft


Yea that is a reasonable possibility (not the order, just the personnel makeup)





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