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1
Posted on 12/14/12 at 3:16 pm to Baloo
quote:
It's hard to maintain a high BA with a ton of strikeouts.
Right. And if you look at his company for contact rates last year... it's all the same type of player... high HR, low average sluggers.
I'm just looking at all facets of the transition:
-He's aging.
-He's moving into an extremely favorable pitcher's park.
-He's already battled injuries as a young man and we all know that gets worse with age.
-His contact rate (which could just be an aberration) is awful.
-His career numbers in Angels Stadium are pedestrian.
-He's got a bad track record against elite pitching.
Just doing a quick and dirty comparison to Pujols, who he's always been inferior too, Pujols still posted a higher OPS+ than him last year in the worst year of his career.
I just think there's a lot of factors working against him being a rousing success.
Posted on 12/14/12 at 3:25 pm to OBUDan
quote:
Right. And if you look at his company for contact rates last year... it's all the same type of player... high HR, low average sluggers.
It's just weird to me y'all are thinking a career .304 hitter is going to just all of a sudden stop hitting.
After one season (a top 3-5 season in all of baseball) of striking out he's becoming Adam Dunn and is all of a sudden over the hill when he will be 32 this season. Very dramatic, I'm not sure why though
Posted on 12/14/12 at 3:31 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
Very dramatic, I'm not sure why though
I didn't say he'd become Adam Dunn.
I just think his numbers will tumble back to good levels, not great.
Posted on 12/14/12 at 3:56 pm to OBUDan
What's your issue here? The money aspect? Or that he doesn't improve the lineup?
Of course he's aging. And of course it will be a terrible contract eventually. That's basically the price you pay when you are trying to milk the last few great years out of a player; you're going to be paying a lot of money for a mediocre player one day.
Another thing- people act like being an Adam Dunn player is terrible. 40 HR with a high OBP trumps a bad BA and a bad contact rate. If that player is "worth it" is arbitrary.
And for the 4th time, LA was more hitter friendly than Arlington last season!!!
Of course he's aging. And of course it will be a terrible contract eventually. That's basically the price you pay when you are trying to milk the last few great years out of a player; you're going to be paying a lot of money for a mediocre player one day.
Another thing- people act like being an Adam Dunn player is terrible. 40 HR with a high OBP trumps a bad BA and a bad contact rate. If that player is "worth it" is arbitrary.
And for the 4th time, LA was more hitter friendly than Arlington last season!!!
Posted on 12/14/12 at 4:01 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
What's your issue here? The money aspect? Or that he doesn't improve the lineup?
Money in relation to how much he improves the lineup. ETA: Moreso that it didn't really address their actual needs.
quote:
Of course he's aging. And of course it will be a terrible contract eventually. That's basically the price you pay when you are trying to milk the last few great years out of a player; you're going to be paying a lot of money for a mediocre player one day.
I know, but I think he has a lot more issues than Pujols did... or even ARod.
quote:
Another thing- people act like being an Adam Dunn player is terrible. 40 HR with a high OBP trumps a bad BA and a bad contact rate. If that player is "worth it" is arbitrary.
Not saying it's bad. It's just not 25 million good. I thought I've said that pretty consistently.
quote:
And for the 4th time, LA was more hitter friendly than Arlington last season!!!
Based on what?
From ESPN:
Ballpark at Arlingon had more Runs scored, more HRs, hits, doubles, triples...
Based on baseball reference, Angel Stadium scored a 92 where 100 is neutral, less is pitcher friendly and greater is hitter friendly. Arlington ranked at 111...
This post was edited on 12/14/12 at 4:06 pm
Posted on 12/14/12 at 4:04 pm to Lester Earl
I'll go with .285 and 30 bombs. Which is solid.
Posted on 12/14/12 at 4:06 pm to SouljaBreauxTellEm
And 120rbi and .900 ops
Better than solid
Better than solid
Posted on 12/14/12 at 4:06 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
And for the 4th time, LA was more hitter friendly than Arlington last season!!!
TEX park factor
1-year: 107
multiyear: 112
LAA park factor
1-year: 91
mutliyear: 92
So, no. Texas wasn't just a better hitter's park, it was a MUCH better hitters park.
As for Hamilton suddenly getting worse. It's the strikeout rate. If it's a one-year aberration, no biggee. But he went from 93 K to 162 K in one season. That's a massive jump. If he continues to strikeout like that, his average will likely plummet. It's very hard to maintain a high average with a huge number of K's. It's a bad indicator. How does a BA average slip by 75 points in two years? By adding 70 additional strikeouts. When he hit 359, he struck out 95 times.
Posted on 12/14/12 at 4:11 pm to tduecen
quote:
LaRoache 2 year 25 million deal with Washington so he is another off the table
Where is this at?
Not seeing it anywhere.
Posted on 12/14/12 at 4:24 pm to Baloo
quote:
Rangers Ballpark had a home run Park Factor that ranked seventh-highest in terms of hitter-friendliness for homers. Angel Stadium rated fifth-most pitcher-friendly. (for an explanation of Park Factor, click here)
I was taking ESPN's word for it
Eta- sorry I misread
This post was edited on 12/14/12 at 4:26 pm
Posted on 12/14/12 at 4:25 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
Rangers Ballpark had a home run Park Factor that ranked seventh-highest in terms of hitter-friendliness for homers. Angel Stadium rated fifth-most pitcher-friendly. (for an explanation of Park Factor, click here)
Posted on 12/14/12 at 4:25 pm to Baloo
quote:
How does a BA average slip by 75 points in two years? By adding 70 additional strikeouts. When he hit 359, he struck out 95 times.
This is kind of dramatic too.
His K rate has basically been the same every year besides this past season. .359 is probably the aberration here. Of course it seems dramatic .70pts decrease.
I just don't think he was that great of a hitter as he was that year. He's hovered as a .300 hitter every other season. Yea even last year when he k'd 162x
So of course it seems horrible that he dropped 70pts over 2 years
Posted on 12/14/12 at 4:38 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
His K rate has basically been the same every year besides this past season.
Exactly. So, as I said, if its a one year thing, no biggee. If this is a trend, then it's very bad. He nearly doubled his K rate in a season That's almost unheard of (unless the hitter started with a really low K rate).
Batting average tends to fluctuate for a hitter for a lot of reasons, so year, that 359 is an aberration, too. But a 300 BA becomes nearly unattainable if you're striking out in a third of your at bats. Do the math.
Let's say you strike out 150 times in 450 at bats (using for ease of math, but also, it's better to guess the under for Hamilton's at bats). That's 1/3 of your at bats just gone. So now to hit .300, you need 135 hits and you only have 300 at bats to do it in. That means Hamilton has to hit .450 in at bats he doesn't strike out in, which is really, really high. Home runs help, but after that, you need to be pretty hit lucky. He struck out in 29% of his at bats last year, which is about as high of a K rate as you can have and still have a shot at 300. Once you're above 30%, it becomes a war against math.
Posted on 12/14/12 at 4:53 pm to Baloo
I agree with that,
I am just saying a 70pt decrease in average over 2 years isn't because of Ks
He dropped 61 pts just over the next year from 2010 to 2011 and his k rate was basically the same. Once every 5.2 AB compared to about 5.4 in his huge MVP year.
It depends how you define trend. Meaning "r get worse" or stay the same.
Should it even stay the same, I'm not sure how it is very bad. He had a great year last year despite the K's.
Will he win another batting title? Probably not.
Could he K 150x and still hit 35 hr and drive in 120 runs? Sure
He's not going to fall off the face of the earth. Plenty of great run producers who strike out a lot in this league.
I am just saying a 70pt decrease in average over 2 years isn't because of Ks
He dropped 61 pts just over the next year from 2010 to 2011 and his k rate was basically the same. Once every 5.2 AB compared to about 5.4 in his huge MVP year.
quote:
If this is a trend, then it's very bad. He nearly doubled his K rate in a season That's almost unheard of (unless the hitter started with a really low K rate).
It depends how you define trend. Meaning "r get worse" or stay the same.
Should it even stay the same, I'm not sure how it is very bad. He had a great year last year despite the K's.
Will he win another batting title? Probably not.
Could he K 150x and still hit 35 hr and drive in 120 runs? Sure
He's not going to fall off the face of the earth. Plenty of great run producers who strike out a lot in this league.
Posted on 12/14/12 at 4:59 pm to Lester Earl
Good discussion all around.
I'm interested to see it play out. This thread will get bumped by one party or the other I'm sure.
I'm interested to see it play out. This thread will get bumped by one party or the other I'm sure.
Posted on 12/14/12 at 5:10 pm to OBUDan
Agreed.
We need to posh predictions though. So many times ill find myself arguing about future and ill ask someone to post predictions and they end up being similar to mine, and I ask myself "why the hell were we just arguing?"
It's like some peeps will take the extreme in an argument and then keel back to a fair prediction
hate that shite
I say . 285 36 HR 115 RBI .890 OPS
I don't think he'll be nick swisher
Just needs to stay healthy. Play in 140 games or so
We need to posh predictions though. So many times ill find myself arguing about future and ill ask someone to post predictions and they end up being similar to mine, and I ask myself "why the hell were we just arguing?"
It's like some peeps will take the extreme in an argument and then keel back to a fair prediction
hate that shite I say . 285 36 HR 115 RBI .890 OPS
I don't think he'll be nick swisher
Just needs to stay healthy. Play in 140 games or so
Posted on 12/14/12 at 11:47 pm to geauxlsu07
I was hoping the horrible Mariners would finally get a bat. 
First no Prince Fielder now this. Swisher better sign.
First no Prince Fielder now this. Swisher better sign.This post was edited on 12/14/12 at 11:49 pm
Posted on 12/15/12 at 12:25 am to Lester Earl
I'll go .268, 27 HRs, 90 rbis
Posted on 12/16/12 at 5:04 pm to OBUDan
Josh really wanted to be a quarterback, but could never figure out why he always fumbled the snap.
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