I thought we'd continue with the ISDS number crunch from the LSU/Bama penalty comparison and conspiracy thread.

First of all, this is merely meant to serve as a casual read. I don't believe in all this stuff. It's more of an offseason topic. Given we are in the month lull between last game of the season and bowl game, what the hell.

LINK

quote:
Teddy Bridgewater to LSU

LSU Preseason Projected to be Favored in: 11 of 12 games
LSU Preseason Projected Record: 10.1-1.9
Actually Favored: 11 of 12 games
Actual Record: 10-2

Re-simulating 2012 LSU projection without Teddy Bridgewater:

Favored in: 10 of 12 games
Projected Record: 9.5-2.5

Re-simulating 2012 LSU with Teddy Bridgewater:

Favored in: 11 of 12 games
Projected Record: 10.9-1.1

Results:

Actual LSU Win Differential from Projection: -0.6 wins
Over or underachieved by: Overachieved by 0.5 wins during the season
Teddy Bridgewater LSU Win Differential: +1.4 wins
Teddy Bridgewater Wins Above Average: +3.1 wins

Note: Bridgewater, who is from Miami, flirted with going to either Miami or LSU as well. Ultimately, when LSU brought in Zach Mettenberger, Bridgewater headed to Louisville where he knew he would be able to play quarterback and play early.

This year, in his sophomore season, Bridgewater led the Cardinals to a 10-2 record and a BCS bowl berth while putting up these numbers: 3,452 yards on 387 attempts (8.9 yards-per-attempt, 69% completions), 25 TDs and 7 INTs (including 263 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT with a broken left wrist in the Big East clinching win over Rutgers). Mettenberger’s team also went 10-2, though more so in spite of him as opposed to because of him. Mettenberger completed 58.7% of his 329 passes for 2,489 yards (7.6 yards-per-attempt), 11 TDs and 6 INTs. Neither quarterback is adept at running, but Bridgewater did a better job of avoiding sacks despite a weaker offensive line.

While Johnny Manziel does not make Texas into a national championship team, since quarterback was the biggest weakness of the LSU Tigers this season, having someone with Bridgewater’s abilities and intelligence (on and off the field) certainly could have turned LSU into even more of a legitimate national championship threat. Mettenberger did play well against Alabama in a loss, but Bridgewater consistently puts up similar performances (obviously, the SEC defenses are better than the Big East defenses, but the Big East is actually a pretty strong conference on defense and Bridgewater profiles as a much better quarterback regardless). Had Bridgewater gone to LSU and started this season, we could be talking about LSU in the BCS Championship Game and about Bridgewater as a Heisman Trophy finalist.
On an average team, with his lack of rushing prowess, Bridgewater does not quite mean as much as Manziel.

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Posted by mylsuhat

Mandeville, LA

Member since Mar 2008

48928 posts

Posted on 12/4/12 at 4:12 pm to LSU=Champions

quote:
Bridgewater headed to Louisville where he knew he would be able to play quarterback and play early.

This year, in his sophomore season, Bridgewater led the Cardinals to a 10-2 record and a BCS bowl berth while putting up these numbers: 3,452 yards on 387 attempts (8.9 yards-per-attempt, 69% completions), 25 TDs and 7 INTs

LSU has a Strength of Schedule of 8
Louisville has a Strength of Schedule of 61

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Posted by stho381

Lafayette, LA

Member since Jan 2012

4628 posts

Posted on 12/4/12 at 5:13 pm to LSU=Champions

While I understand statistics is fun for you, you aren't taking into account the validity of your findings.

Teddy Bridgewater played in the Big East and had OOC games against weak opponents as well.

He also ended the season injured with a fractured hand and sprained ankle. The toughest team he played was Rutgers. While talent-wise Bridgewater's OL might be weaker than LSU's, They have a combined 129 starts compared to LSU's 96. They are playing against DLs from Rutgers, Pitt, and Cincy. LSU is playing against Florida, aTm, S.Carolina, Bama all while trying to figure out the OL rotation.

Next let's look at how many times Mett got smashed this year starting with getting damn near concussed against NTU and then spitting blood against Ole Miss. If Bridgewater was playing hurt from getting roughed up in the Big East, then it would stand to reason that he probably wouldn't have been able to take the beating Mett took.

Lastly, Bridgewater is a second year starter and still hasn't seen near the competition Mett has seen. Mett starting his 6th game got Florida, then SCAR, then aTm, then Bama.

tl:dr, apples:oranges

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Posted by lwlsu96