Basketball Bet Thread 11/30 | Page 3 | TigerDroppings.com

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maclauer
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2011
3948 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30


That was one site's review. My pick is based on thinking Tennessee can make it a close, sloppy game. I think 7 is too many points for a young team like that to be giving against a quality team, even if it at home. GTown has the advantage in the frontcourt with Whittington and Porter, so UT will be toast if Stokes gets into foul trouble.





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dgtiger3
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Prairieville
Member since Sep 2005
4597 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30


NBA
Cavaliers +9
Kings +1.5

College Hoops
Georgia State -1
South Florida -3.5
Eastern Washington +5

Good Luck Tonight Guys






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HoLeInOnEr05
Auburn Fan
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
15303 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30


You run a system for bball too?





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UltimateHog
Arkansas Fan
Springfield, MO
Member since Dec 2011
33759 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30


I would take Arkansas at home over nearly anyone getting points.

We'll either pull the upset, or get blown out.

We did start 17-0 at home last year and whipped a Top 10 Michigan team, it's not like Syracuse will be anything different in BWA, but I still wouldn't touch it.

Inconsistent shooting against that zone and we could get blown out, but like I said, we're usually 'on' at home.

It went down to +7? When I went to bed it was +8.5.






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dgtiger3
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Prairieville
Member since Sep 2005
4597 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30


quote:

You run a system for bball too?


Honestly basketball was the first sport that really got me into advanced statistics and predicting value of teams.

This early in the year I just look for value in the lines, I try to bet on the teams that I feel the line has been set to favor, Usually a team with a worse record, or coming off a bad shooting night or two, because it is generally a "what have you done for me lately" market.

I have found that if I focus on teams that play 10 points better at home than they do on the road you can really find some value, especially with so many teams in college hoops. I love fading those teams on the road when they are favored against a inferior opponent that team that also plays much better at home.







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dgtiger3
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Prairieville
Member since Sep 2005
4597 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30


quote:

I would take Arkansas at home over nearly anyone getting points.

We'll either pull the upset, or get blown out.

We did start 17-0 at home last year and whipped a Top 10 Michigan team, it's not like Syracuse will be anything different in BWA, but I still wouldn't touch it.

Inconsistent shooting against that zone and we could get blown out, but like I said, we're usually 'on' at home.

It went down to +7? When I went to bed it was +8.5.


There are lots of stats that back your claims as well. Out of the 345 Division 1 teams last season, Arkansas ranked #7 in Home Court Advantage, playing around 20 points better at home than they did on the road.

Only reason I am not on them tonight is the other numbers I follow have Syracuse as a vastly superior team, and they could get completely overmatched.

Goodluck.






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maclauer
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2011
3948 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30


quote:

My pick is based on thinking Tennessee can make it a close, sloppy game

So far, so good with this prediction

What an ugly game so far.






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TiggerWoods
Auburn Fan
Auburn
Member since Nov 2010
2519 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30


Auburn under 142 1/2





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maclauer
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2011
3948 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30


Added live in-play: Ark TT under 74.5 for 1 unit





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maclauer
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2011
3948 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30


Another live in-play: Arkansas TT under 77.5 now, also 1 unit





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TiggerWoods
Auburn Fan
Auburn
Member since Nov 2010
2519 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30


Auburn under is not looking so hot





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UltimateHog
Arkansas Fan
Springfield, MO
Member since Dec 2011
33759 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30


Auburn up on DePaul at half





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maclauer
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2011
3948 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30


My worst nightmare. Both TTs lose and Ark doesn't cover





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UltimateHog
Arkansas Fan
Springfield, MO
Member since Dec 2011
33759 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30


Lmao that FT with 2 seconds left fricked people that took Arkansas at +8.5.

Forgot about that. Ouch.

Don't even know why we fouled with 3 seconds left down 8. Rigged.






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Billy Mays
Navy Fan
Northshore Ole Miss Bear Club
Member since Jan 2009
17079 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30


Fullerton needs a miracle to cover -4.5 ...





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Signature
LSU Fan
Omnipresent
Member since Sep 2005
6454 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30


And Cal St Fullerton disappeared.





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UltimateHog
Arkansas Fan
Springfield, MO
Member since Dec 2011
33759 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30


Seriously? frick.

CSF was up by 7 at the half, I felt good.

They must be getting leveled in the 2nd half.






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Billy Mays
Navy Fan
Northshore Ole Miss Bear Club
Member since Jan 2009
17079 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30


Yeah they've only scored 24 points so far in the 2nd half.

Reminds me why laying points on bad/mediocre teams on the road isn't usually a great idea.

OT is the only way out of this one I'm afraid.






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HoLeInOnEr05
Auburn Fan
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
15303 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30


Cuse ML hits!





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UltimateHog
Arkansas Fan
Springfield, MO
Member since Dec 2011
33759 posts

re: Basketball Bet Thread 11/30


CSF goes down 77-75.

Wtf happened they hit a 3 to cut it to 2 with 5 seconds left, couldn't foul? Jesus.

Luckily I got talked into that one late and low balled it.






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