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re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)

Posted on 11/28/12 at 1:51 pm to
Posted by SouthOfSouth
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2008
43456 posts
Posted on 11/28/12 at 1:51 pm to
quote:

Cliff would be proud


haha....

Professor Ji-Chai Lin would be proud. Cliff would try to use it to make money somehow! And I'd let him.
Posted by lsu2006
BR
Member since Feb 2004
39980 posts
Posted on 11/28/12 at 2:49 pm to
Awesome stuff.

What do you do for a living, if you don't mind me asking? This seems pretty time-consuming.

What kind of background do you have in statistics, particularly sports statistics? Just wondering how someone can become so immersed and seemingly proficient in this, it's fascinating, really.

Also, I'm a bit curious about your connections to LSU hoops. I've always been impressed with your in-depth knowledge of the team, to go with a passion for the program that it desperately needs.
Posted by SouthOfSouth
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2008
43456 posts
Posted on 11/28/12 at 2:57 pm to

quote:

What do you do for a living, if you don't mind me asking? This seems pretty time-consuming.


I do some accounting work for a construction company. I am a very quick and efficient worker. When I work, I work my arse off, when I don't work, I do things like this. I was able to do this pretty quickly. I already keep spreadsheets of stats so its just copy and pasting formulas to make this work.


quote:

What kind of background do you have in statistics, particularly sports statistics? Just wondering how someone can become so immersed and seemingly proficient in this, it's fascinating, really.


I have a bs and ms in finance. I took 2 PhD classes when I was thinking about getting my PhD in finance; financial research and math for economist. Both of these really helped my skills in statistics and using equations.

quote:

Also, I'm a bit curious about your connections to LSU hoops. I've always been impressed with your in-depth knowledge of the team, to go with a passion for the program that it desperately needs.



My late father and I would go to games since I can remember. I continued my love. In 2007 (Spring of my Freshman year) I worked at the PMAC setting up and tearing down for basketball games. Besides that, I have always loved stats. People can see whatever they want about players, but stats do not lie. So using stats has been something thatI have always loved.

This post was edited on 11/28/12 at 2:58 pm
Posted by ProjectP2294
South St. Louis city
Member since May 2007
70290 posts
Posted on 11/28/12 at 6:53 pm to
quote:

No hockey assists. While the pass before the pass can be important, I decided it did not need to be included... (I know this is a joke; but still)

It wasn't completely a joke. I just recently learned about teams tracking hockey stats for basketball, so that's why I asked.

It was kind of a joke because you factor in so much else that it would probably get cumbersome if you tried to put it in there.
Posted by SouthOfSouth
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2008
43456 posts
Posted on 11/29/12 at 6:28 am to
quote:

It wasn't completely a joke. I just recently learned about teams tracking hockey stats for basketball, so that's why I asked.

It was kind of a joke because you factor in so much else that it would probably get cumbersome if you tried to put it in there.



Sometimes you get the best explanation out of simplicity.
Posted by GeismarGeauxer
Geismar
Member since Dec 2009
5173 posts
Posted on 11/29/12 at 11:44 pm to
Looking for the updated #s...

I guess ludwigs don't change as he didn't start and got 0
min.

Tuba started but didn't ever come back. Thinking he wasn't effective during pt.

Carmouche had 7 assists? Wow...

I think in crunch time you will only see combos of these guys:
Hickey
Stringer
Carmouche
Morgan
Hammink
Coleman
JOB
Posted by Hat Tricks
Member since Oct 2003
28615 posts
Posted on 11/29/12 at 11:45 pm to
Posted by Harry Caray
Denial
Member since Aug 2009
18648 posts
Posted on 11/29/12 at 11:46 pm to
quote:

I think in crunch time you will only see combos of these guys:
Hickey
Stringer
Carmouche
Morgan
Hammink
Coleman
JOB


exactly. depth is going to really hurt us in the SEC schedule with only 7 "legit" players. Maybe courtney and Collins can help out, but they really don't deserve significant PT.
Posted by Beau Tie
Member since Oct 2012
951 posts
Posted on 11/30/12 at 12:02 am to
1) I never knew you were that smart.
2) you must be a huge basketball fan.
3) thought about getting paid for this like moneyball?
Posted by oauron
Birmingham, AL
Member since Sep 2011
14512 posts
Posted on 11/30/12 at 12:07 am to
Courtney looked pretty good playing press D at the end of the game.
Posted by SouthOfSouth
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2008
43456 posts
Posted on 11/30/12 at 7:28 am to
Posted by Russianblue
Member since Nov 2007
1108 posts
Posted on 11/30/12 at 7:45 am to
This is golden. I don't like the name. sos sounds too much like strength of schedule. How about StatOS Rating? It isn't as exact as an acronym, but has better legs w regard to branding.
Posted by Chris Warner
Perdido Bay
Member since Jan 2009
5575 posts
Posted on 11/30/12 at 7:53 am to
Sound methodology.
You should contact the guy that wrote the book, "Bringing down the House" about the MIT Vegas card-counting team.

At the end of the book he reveals his true identity and the fact that he uses his math to develop statistical and mathematical models to rate players.

I can only wonder if he has seen your presentation or a similar variation.

Again, your logic is sound and the time coefficient is a neat trick for valuing on the court worth.

I enjoy your posts. LSU basketball is definitely on the rise.
Posted by SouthOfSouth
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2008
43456 posts
Posted on 11/30/12 at 8:05 am to
quote:

This is golden. I don't like the name. sos sounds too much like strength of schedule. How about StatOS Rating? It isn't as exact as an acronym, but has better legs w regard to branding.


Well it is really just cause that's what people on here call me. Its a self-named rating system. I kinda used a play on words that made sense calling it score on stats cause basically that's what it is, but it's really just because my South of South pinname.
Posted by Eighteen
Member since Dec 2006
33880 posts
Posted on 11/30/12 at 8:27 am to
quote:

This is golden. I don't like the name. sos sounds too much like strength of schedule.


I agree with this guy

great work, but it's going to look like Strength of Schedule to everyone...I thought that's what it was going to be when I clicked on the thread

This is freaking awesome, though. Can't wait to see it updated throughout the season
This post was edited on 11/30/12 at 8:34 am
Posted by BigEdLSU
All around the south
Member since Sep 2010
20268 posts
Posted on 11/30/12 at 8:36 am to
I really enjoy and appreciate your posts. Keep em coming.

Btw, did you think of this yourself? I could see it becoming an accepted major metric frankly.
Posted by Eighteen
Member since Dec 2006
33880 posts
Posted on 11/30/12 at 8:37 am to
It reminds me of the NBA Efficiency formula they use on NBA.com

quote:

NBA.com evaluates all players based on the efficiency formula: ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) - ((Field Goals Att. - Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. - Free Throws Made) + Turnovers)).


LINK

Maybe you could plug this formula into your excel sheet too, so we can see what it would look like using the NBA formula to college players (although I think your rating is actually superior)
Posted by SouthOfSouth
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2008
43456 posts
Posted on 11/30/12 at 9:05 am to
quote:

Btw, did you think of this yourself? I could see it becoming an accepted major metric frankly.


Yea. When I was in my financial research class and started learning what economist and financial experts used equations for it made me realize how far their worth can go. I have wanted to put something together for a while and I finally did it.

Math is a very special science that can be used in all sorts of nerdy ways.
Posted by BigEdLSU
All around the south
Member since Sep 2010
20268 posts
Posted on 11/30/12 at 9:09 am to
What's the derivative of the square root of the reciprocal of your SoS rating? Honestly that's all I care about.

Then multiply Rummy's paycheck by epsilon.
Posted by SouthOfSouth
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2008
43456 posts
Posted on 11/30/12 at 9:45 am to
quote:

NBA.com evaluates all players based on the efficiency formula: ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) - ((Field Goals Att. - Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. - Free Throws Made) + Turnovers)).


The main problem I have with NBA's PER is that it gives too much bias to players who are scorers. To count a block as the same value as a single point is crazy to me. Similar with steals. It doesn't give credit where credit is due. There are so many instances where the easiest part of the play was the layup due to a great pass, but the shooter gets 2 points and the great pass only gets 1.
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