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JohnnyKilroy 
North Carolina Fan
Member since Oct 2012
5137 posts
 Online
| New ARG poll out of Ohio - Willard takes the lead (Posted on 10/9/12 at 10:39 am)
48-47
Key points:
+9 D poll
Romney +20 with Independents
Obama +3 with women
Interdasting.....
This post was edited on 10/9 at 10:40 am
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constant cough 
New Orleans Saints Fan
Lafayette
Member since Jun 2007
28425 posts
| re: New ARG poll out of Ohio - Willard takes the lead (Posted on 10/9/12 at 10:43 am to JohnnyKilroy)
It's over. Obama's done.
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Radiojones 
LSU Fan
Dutchtown, LA
Member since Feb 2007
4207 posts
| re: New ARG poll out of Ohio - Willard takes the lead (Posted on 10/9/12 at 10:44 am to JohnnyKilroy)
I'm stunned that people are so whimsical with their votes that they would change after one debate. These polls that are coming out are showing shifts in the hundreds of thousands if not millions of voters.
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Fun Bunch
New Orleans Saints Fan
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
15036 posts
| re: New ARG poll out of Ohio - Willard takes the lead (Posted on 10/9/12 at 10:45 am to JohnnyKilroy)
How good is ARG's record? I don't know them.
Also, with a +9 D sample, that bodes very well.
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ScoopAndScore
baton rouge
Member since Oct 2008
6914 posts
| re: New ARG poll out of Ohio - Willard takes the lead (Posted on 10/9/12 at 10:47 am to JohnnyKilroy)
WOW. This thing might truly be over. Holy crap.
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SundayFunday
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2011
3048 posts
| re: New ARG poll out of Ohio - Willard takes the lead (Posted on 10/9/12 at 10:47 am to Radiojones)
quote:
I'm stunned that people are so whimsical with their votes that they would change after one debate. These polls that are coming out are showing shifts in the hundreds of thousands if not millions of voters.
It was the First time everyone got a chance to see Osama for how inadequate and weak he is. I mean the man could barely look Romney in the eye. It was ridiculous. He showed practically zero strength as a leader and there was no media or MSNBC to step in during that time and make up excuses. It was a crystal clear view as the mistake we put into office.
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Choctaw 
Navy Fan
Pumpin' Sunshine
Member since Jul 2007
39841 posts
| re: New ARG poll out of Ohio - Willard takes the lead (Posted on 10/9/12 at 10:48 am to JohnnyKilroy)
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TK421
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2011
5135 posts
| re: New ARG poll out of Ohio - Willard takes the lead (Posted on 10/9/12 at 10:48 am to Radiojones)
quote:
I'm stunned that people are so whimsical with their votes that they would change after one debate.
This was an historic debate performance based on the number of people that thought Romney won (~70%).
Also, it was the first time Romney could effectively refute Obama's labeling of him. People saw Romney instead of the Obama caricature of him.
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JohnnyKilroy
North Carolina Fan
Member since Oct 2012
5137 posts
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| re: New ARG poll out of Ohio - Willard takes the lead (Posted on 10/9/12 at 10:48 am to Radiojones)
quote:
I'm stunned that people are so whimsical with their votes that they would change after one debate. These polls that are coming out are showing shifts in the hundreds of thousands if not millions of voters.
Things change when you get to see both candidates on the stage at the same time for the first time.
Also, some are still whining about Romney's lack of specificity, but Obama's plan was a slightly reworded Hope and Change. People recognize that.
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jcole4lsu 
Virginia Fan
The Kwisatz Haderach
Member since Nov 2007
21939 posts
Online
| re: New ARG poll out of Ohio - Willard takes the lead (Posted on 10/9/12 at 10:49 am to JohnnyKilroy)
quote:
48-47
Key points:
+9 D poll
Romney +20 with Independents
holy shit
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F Head
LSU Fan
On a boat
Member since Dec 2008
1896 posts
| re: New ARG poll out of Ohio - Willard takes the lead (Posted on 10/9/12 at 10:51 am to Radiojones)
quote:
I'm stunned that people are so whimsical with their votes that they would change after one debate. These polls that are coming out are showing shifts in the hundreds of thousands if not millions of voters.
This one was different. Like Lehrer said, people finally got to see an actual debate instead of a simultaneous interview of the candidates.
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JohnnyKilroy
North Carolina Fan
Member since Oct 2012
5137 posts
Online
| re: New ARG poll out of Ohio - Willard takes the lead (Posted on 10/9/12 at 10:53 am to TK421)
quote:
Also, it was the first time Romney could effectively refute Obama's labeling of him. People saw Romney instead of the Obama caricature of him.
This.
This was huge. People watching the MSM and listening to the DNC rhetoric expected Romney to show up with a top hat and cane, pausing to light a fat cigar with a 100 dollar bill. That's the image that has been pushed. Turns out he came off as the exact opposite.
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Fun Bunch
New Orleans Saints Fan
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
15036 posts
| re: New ARG poll out of Ohio - Willard takes the lead (Posted on 10/9/12 at 10:55 am to F Head)
I'm pretty certain Romney wins Florida.
He wins Ohio and VA, and this thing is pretty much over. He would still have to win two of Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri, Colorado, Nevada. He should win Iowa and Missouri I would think.
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Radiojones
LSU Fan
Dutchtown, LA
Member since Feb 2007
4207 posts
| re: New ARG poll out of Ohio - Willard takes the lead (Posted on 10/9/12 at 10:55 am to F Head)
I hear what you guys are saying. I guess what I'm really surprised at is that people had not done enough research on both candidates to know this in advance. I realized how sharp Mitt was when he destroyed Newt in the last debate.
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Fun Bunch
New Orleans Saints Fan
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
15036 posts
| re: New ARG poll out of Ohio - Willard takes the lead (Posted on 10/9/12 at 10:57 am to Radiojones)
It continually amazes me how many people have not made up their minds by this point. Anyway...
Looking again at the Electoral Map, if Romney wins Ohio, Florida, VA, NC and Missouri...
It all comes down to Iowa. (assuming Obama wins Wisconsin, Colorado and Nevada).
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ScoopAndScore
baton rouge
Member since Oct 2008
6914 posts
| re: New ARG poll out of Ohio - Willard takes the lead (Posted on 10/9/12 at 10:57 am to Radiojones)
quote:
I guess what I'm really surprised at is that people had not done enough research on both candidates to know this in advance
Not sure if serious.
90% of the population doesn't do any research on this stuff. You know that.
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Radiojones
LSU Fan
Dutchtown, LA
Member since Feb 2007
4207 posts
| re: New ARG poll out of Ohio - Willard takes the lead (Posted on 10/9/12 at 11:01 am to ScoopAndScore)
That is such a sad statement (but apparently true) about our country.
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Interception
Providence Fan
Member since Nov 2008
8627 posts
Online
| re: New ARG poll out of Ohio - Willard takes the lead (Posted on 10/9/12 at 11:02 am to JohnnyKilroy)
The women vote is the killer in these polls. Obama had to get that up to double digits because men are going for Romney at ~10%. I posted a prediction that Romney would move into the 50's with Independents and win them 55-60%. The internals always showed these as soft Obama supporters. They just needed a reason to vote for Romney.
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SportTiger1
LSU Fan
Stonewall, LA
Member since Feb 2007
2004 posts
| re: New ARG poll out of Ohio - Willard takes the lead (Posted on 10/9/12 at 11:05 am to F Head)
quote:
This one was different. Like Lehrer said, people finally got to see an actual debate instead of a simultaneous interview of the candidates
+1. This is why debates usually don't mean that much to the overall election. 2 min canned answers are nothing more than lengthy campaign ads that have been shown over and over again.
Last weeks debate gave much more insight into the nominees, which allowed one to dominate and win so handily, in this case, Romney. I think that's why we're seeing much more movement out of the polls than in previous elections.
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MFn GIMP
LSU Fan
Somerset, Kentucky
Member since Feb 2011
7015 posts
Online
| re: New ARG poll out of Ohio - Willard takes the lead (Posted on 10/9/12 at 11:06 am to Radiojones)
quote:
I guess what I'm really surprised at is that people had not done enough research on both candidates to know this in advance
You have to remember that those of us who post here are political junkies and actually follow politics and the news. Most Americans don't really start following election stuff until after labor day and they aren't going to really research the candidates.
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