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Stats Don't Lie: LSU/Bama Stat Comparison
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:28 am
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:28 am
I posted this in the prediction thread, but I feel like it needed its own post just to give a little dose of reality. Statistics don't lie. They don't always turn out to predict outcomes perfectly, but over 5 games, I think it's a good indicator as to how the season has gone so far. All I'm hearing is how LSU is going to drop 3+ games, Bama is playing SO much better than LSU, and how LSU is playing terrible football compared them.
Read these stats, which are all current and accurate up to today (9/30/12), and rationalize why Bama is playing so much better football than LSU. The numbers in everything except for three areas are damn near neck and neck. The only noticeable margins are in turnovers, penalties, and points against, which has an alternative view point presented based on the difference in late game coaching styles between Saban and Miles with a win locked up. Even the quality of opponent is pretty much the same, and there is a myth that is perpetuated a ton around here that Bama's thrashing high quality opponents while we're struggling with cupcakes. It's even debatable that Bama's biggest win against Michigan, who was 6 points from losing to Air Force and being 1-3 on the season, is an equal or lesser quality win than LSU beating Washington.
So, please, Ranters, explain why these stats are wrong and present your case as to why you're correct?
Opponent Records
LSU: 8-14 (without LSU matchups: 8-9)
Bama: 11-13 (without Bama matchups: 11-8)
Difference: Bama opponents had three more wins, one less loss. What a drastic difference!
Offense, Total Yards
LSU: 2164 yards (432.8 yards/game)
Bama: 2005 yards (401 yards/game)
Difference: +159 yards (31.8 yards/game) gained, LSU
Total Yards Given Up on D
LSU: 1089 yards (217 yards/game)
Bama: 958 yards (191.6 yards/game)
Difference: +131 yards given up, LSU
Points Scored
LSU: 195 (39 ppg)
Bama: 201 (40.2 ppg)
Difference: +6 points (1.2 ppg), Bama
Points Scored Against
LSU: 63 (12.6 ppg)
Bama: 35 (7 ppg)
Difference: +28 (5.6 ppg) points given up, LSU
Penalties
LSU: 42 - 305 yards
Bama: 20 - 168 yards
Difference: +22 penalties for +137 yards lost, LSU
Turnovers Gained
LSU: 12
Bama: 15
Difference: +3 turnovers gained, Bama
Turnovers Lost
LSU: 8
Bama: 3
Difference: +5 turnovers lost, LSU
Also noteworthy is the points given up in the 4th quarter once a win was locked. It's a nitpicky stat but coaching style plays a factor in skewed stats:
Points Against in 4th, Win Locked
LSU: 20 (4 ppg)
Bama: 7 (1.4 ppg)
Difference: +13 given up in 4th in clean up, LSU
Points Against Without 4th and clean up time
LSU: 43 (8.6 ppg)
Bama: 28 (5.6 ppg)
Difference: +15 points (3 ppg) given up without 4th counted, LSU
ETA:
3rd Down Percentage
LSU: 29-66, 42.93%
Bama: 31-63, 49.20%
Difference: +2 converted, -3 attempted, Bama
Read these stats, which are all current and accurate up to today (9/30/12), and rationalize why Bama is playing so much better football than LSU. The numbers in everything except for three areas are damn near neck and neck. The only noticeable margins are in turnovers, penalties, and points against, which has an alternative view point presented based on the difference in late game coaching styles between Saban and Miles with a win locked up. Even the quality of opponent is pretty much the same, and there is a myth that is perpetuated a ton around here that Bama's thrashing high quality opponents while we're struggling with cupcakes. It's even debatable that Bama's biggest win against Michigan, who was 6 points from losing to Air Force and being 1-3 on the season, is an equal or lesser quality win than LSU beating Washington.
So, please, Ranters, explain why these stats are wrong and present your case as to why you're correct?
Opponent Records
LSU: 8-14 (without LSU matchups: 8-9)
Bama: 11-13 (without Bama matchups: 11-8)
Difference: Bama opponents had three more wins, one less loss. What a drastic difference!
Offense, Total Yards
LSU: 2164 yards (432.8 yards/game)
Bama: 2005 yards (401 yards/game)
Difference: +159 yards (31.8 yards/game) gained, LSU
Total Yards Given Up on D
LSU: 1089 yards (217 yards/game)
Bama: 958 yards (191.6 yards/game)
Difference: +131 yards given up, LSU
Points Scored
LSU: 195 (39 ppg)
Bama: 201 (40.2 ppg)
Difference: +6 points (1.2 ppg), Bama
Points Scored Against
LSU: 63 (12.6 ppg)
Bama: 35 (7 ppg)
Difference: +28 (5.6 ppg) points given up, LSU
Penalties
LSU: 42 - 305 yards
Bama: 20 - 168 yards
Difference: +22 penalties for +137 yards lost, LSU
Turnovers Gained
LSU: 12
Bama: 15
Difference: +3 turnovers gained, Bama
Turnovers Lost
LSU: 8
Bama: 3
Difference: +5 turnovers lost, LSU
Also noteworthy is the points given up in the 4th quarter once a win was locked. It's a nitpicky stat but coaching style plays a factor in skewed stats:
Points Against in 4th, Win Locked
LSU: 20 (4 ppg)
Bama: 7 (1.4 ppg)
Difference: +13 given up in 4th in clean up, LSU
Points Against Without 4th and clean up time
LSU: 43 (8.6 ppg)
Bama: 28 (5.6 ppg)
Difference: +15 points (3 ppg) given up without 4th counted, LSU
ETA:
3rd Down Percentage
LSU: 29-66, 42.93%
Bama: 31-63, 49.20%
Difference: +2 converted, -3 attempted, Bama
This post was edited on 9/30/12 at 9:02 am
19
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:31 am to Dijkstra
quote:
Penalties
LSU: 42 - 305 yards
Bama: 20 - 168 yards
Difference: +22 penalties for +137 yards lost, LSU
This and lost fumbles are the 2 things that have people pulling their hair out
When did LSU turn into a fumbling machine?
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:35 am to Powerman
What about 3rd down %?
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:37 am to Dijkstra
quote:
Stats Don't Lie:
stats also don't tell they whole story either and can be deceiving...
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:39 am to Dijkstra
Sorry but stats do lie.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:39 am to Dijkstra
Stats do lie. Often.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:40 am to LSURulzSEC
Turnover Margin
LSU +4
Bama +12
Kind of a big deal
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:43 am to Dijkstra
Stats properly tortured will confess to anything.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:44 am to Powerman
quote:
Penalties
LSU: 42 - 305 yards
Bama: 20 - 168 yards
Difference: +22 penalties for +137 yards lost, LSU
This and lost fumbles are the 2 things that have people pulling their hair out
When did LSU turn into a fumbling machine?
this
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:47 am to Coon
And what were the LSU/Bama Stat Comparisons before the NC game?
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:51 am to Dijkstra
So basically, LSU played a much easier schedule than we previously thought and are struggling to win whereas Alabama is dominating a tougher schedule than previously realized?
This thread isn't going to go the way you predict
This thread isn't going to go the way you predict
Posted on 9/30/12 at 7:52 am to WylieTiger
quote:
What about 3rd down %?
Funny you should ask...
3rd Down Percentage
LSU: 29-66, 42.93%
Bama: 31-63, 49.20%
Difference: +2 converted, -3 attempted, Bama
quote:
Stats do lie. Often.
Yeah, stats lie or deviate occasionally, and all statisticians will acknowledge that. That point is that over the course of several tests, the end result will likely mimic the statistics based model. If you were to plug these statistics into a custom built program built to randomly generate outcomes based on the statistics that took the chance of a down game into effect and ran it 1000 times, I'd be willing to bet that a majority of the end results mimic the statistics given to the machine. A problem with sports statistics is team quality, depth, and quality of opponents. That isn't an issue in this case. LSU and Alabama both have highly ranked recruiting classes annually, play in the same conference, and they are both pretty even in terms of depth and talent. This isn't comparing LSU to Oregon or Michigan or USC where they play in different conference who play less defense or more speed based styles of football. If you want to make these stats deceiving, you're ignoring what's obvious. Everything from quality of opponent to yards gained to yards given up to points scored is within points of one another. In this comparison, that speaks pretty loudly.
quote:
And what were the LSU/Bama Stat Comparisons before the NC game?
Here are the stats for both teams last season. You can go through the trouble of subtracting the SEC and NC game stats if you'd like. The most telling stats are the yards given up (even with two extra games), the lack of offense, and the difficulty of running the ball against Bama. Those all played a major role in the outcomes of both match ups against Bama.
LSU Cumulative Stats - 2011
Bama Cumulative Stats - 2011
quote:
So basically, LSU played a much easier schedule than we previously thought and are struggling to win whereas Alabama is dominating a tougher schedule than previously realized? This thread isn't going to go the way you predict
Well, I actually predicted there'd be people who either ignored the stats completely, said they didn't matter because stats lie, or just tarded out before thinking it through properly, which is where I'm thinking you fell in those groups. I actually used estimated statistics of the number of stupidity I've experienced here to come to that conclusion, and wouldn't you know it, they turned out right.
How did you read those and come to that conclusion? Alabama has a much tougher schedule? Their opponents have 3 extra wins, including a 4-1 Sun Belt Western Kentucky, and one loss less than LSU's, which includes a 0-5 Idaho who LSU crushed. If anything, with Arkansas being a used condom of a football team and Michigan not being as good as originally predicted, Alabama's schedule was much easier than it was supposed to be. LSU and Alabama has pretty much played the same schedule, and LSU made mistakes that lead to points and closer games, especially in the turnover and penalty columns. Towson didn't even really compete, and we were up 31-9 early in the 4th when the game was over. Auburn got handed the ball 26 yards out of the end zone, and then proceeded to cross the 50 yard line once in the second half. LSU played terrible, gave the ball away a ton, didn't execute well, and they walked away 2-0. I'm not saying Bama's not a great team or they're won't possibly beat us. I'm saying that when you look at the overall comparison, their opponents and performances are pretty much dead on to ours.
This post was edited on 9/30/12 at 8:13 am
Posted on 9/30/12 at 8:10 am to Dijkstra
quote:
Penalties
LSU: 42 - 305 yards
Bama: 20 - 168 yards
Difference: +22 penalties for +137 yards lost, LSU
Turnovers Lost
LSU: 8
Bama: 3
Difference: +5 turnovers lost, LSU
this seems to be what most people have been complaining about, and those stats are not close
Posted on 9/30/12 at 8:17 am to Salmon
I agree completely, and those are not acceptable stats. The turnovers are bad, but 3 of them came today so the loss margin was only 2 before that. Not good to see, but not awful. I'm not excusing it either, but three lost fumbles, five overall, is a freak game. The penalties are ridiculous, and I'm not going to try to justify it.
What I'm trying to address is the "We're going to lose 3+ games", "Mettenberger isn't really an upgrade", and "LSU is not in the same league as Bama" morons. If you have the ability to rationally and without being emotionally crippled by stupidity analyze these stats realistically, it's incredibly obvious that the gap between these team lies solely in the mental areas. Penalties and turnovers are mental issues, but with an extremely young team, that's going to happen. I'm just not going to sit here and listen to such levels of idiocy.
What I'm trying to address is the "We're going to lose 3+ games", "Mettenberger isn't really an upgrade", and "LSU is not in the same league as Bama" morons. If you have the ability to rationally and without being emotionally crippled by stupidity analyze these stats realistically, it's incredibly obvious that the gap between these team lies solely in the mental areas. Penalties and turnovers are mental issues, but with an extremely young team, that's going to happen. I'm just not going to sit here and listen to such levels of idiocy.
This post was edited on 9/30/12 at 8:19 am
Posted on 9/30/12 at 8:22 am to Powerman
quote:
When did LSU turn into a fumbling machine?
...and in the red zone, no less
Posted on 9/30/12 at 8:24 am to Dijkstra
quote:
the lack of offense, and the difficulty of running the ball against Bama. Those all played a major role in the outcomes of both match ups against Bama
Am I missing something? Thats still a problem.
Posted on 9/30/12 at 8:27 am to Dijkstra
Yes, this team plays flat...they must believe they can flip the switch...
Alabama just looks more crisp in everything ...especially offensively
Not being negative just being objective by what I see.
Mett is way behind mentally...slow on progressions
The middle and left side is often wide wide open
Alabama just looks more crisp in everything ...especially offensively
Not being negative just being objective by what I see.
Mett is way behind mentally...slow on progressions
The middle and left side is often wide wide open
Posted on 9/30/12 at 8:28 am to jdd267
Stats do lie...
In a 2 man race, 1 guy tell his buddies he came in 2nd and the other guy claims he finished 2nd to last...
You see how that can work?
In a 2 man race, 1 guy tell his buddies he came in 2nd and the other guy claims he finished 2nd to last...
You see how that can work?
Posted on 9/30/12 at 8:30 am to Salmon
There is one stat that isn't up there, and it is the eyeball stat. I've watched a lot of football (doesnt qualify me for anything) and I've followed LSU football very closely, and it has moved past just irritating or something that we can easily overcome, or just a "Miles" style of football.
It is crystal clear that the offensive scheme, the play calling, the execution, the discipline, and overall performance is one of the worst in college football (offense only) and that is unacceptable with LSU's talent and with how productive other offenses around the country (I'm not talking West Virginia level either). There is something fundamentally broken and Miles refuses to make a drastic move to address it. I would love to sit in with the coaches during film and just see what they are seeing and try and understand the rationalization.
You have to address the small failures in your organization at the bottom of the pyramid even if you haven't had a major event as a result (loss).
It is crystal clear that the offensive scheme, the play calling, the execution, the discipline, and overall performance is one of the worst in college football (offense only) and that is unacceptable with LSU's talent and with how productive other offenses around the country (I'm not talking West Virginia level either). There is something fundamentally broken and Miles refuses to make a drastic move to address it. I would love to sit in with the coaches during film and just see what they are seeing and try and understand the rationalization.
You have to address the small failures in your organization at the bottom of the pyramid even if you haven't had a major event as a result (loss).
This post was edited on 9/30/12 at 8:33 am
Posted on 9/30/12 at 8:30 am to BeauxSox
quote:
Stats do lie...
In a 2 man race, 1 guy tell his buddies he came in 2nd and the other guy claims he finished 2nd to last...
You see how that can work?
This post was edited on 9/30/12 at 8:40 am
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