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Numerical Analysis of the SEC for this week... (SECCG)
Posted on 11/27/11 at 1:02 am
Posted on 11/27/11 at 1:02 am
This was done using a least squares fit to find the ideal values for a power rating for each team using a standard 4 point home field advantage.
Last week's analysis...
LSU by 16.48 over Arkansas (LSU won by 24)
Bama by 16.90 over Auburn (Bama won by 28)
MSU by 21.21 over Ole Miss (MSU won by 28)
UT by 5.68 over UK (UK won by 3)
This weeks analysis
LSU by 18.96 over UGA (Odds of LSU win = 91.06%)
LSU by 5.53 over Bama (Odds of LSU win = 63.44%)
Team Ratings...
1. LSU 45.15 +/- 6.02
2. Alabama 39.62 +/- 10.15
3. Arkansas 30.85 +/- 8.78
4. South Carolina 28.06 +/- 7.92
5. Florida 27.97 +/- 11.78
6. Georgia 26.19 +/- 8.06
7. Mississippi State 18.71 +/- 4.20
8. Vanderbilt 18.68 +/- 5.04
9. Auburn 16.32 +/- 9.44
10. Tennessee 11.25 +/- 6.14
11. Kentucky 3.50 +/- 10.27
12. Ole Miss 0.00 +/- 7.15
EDT: Corrections made!
Last week's analysis...
LSU by 16.48 over Arkansas (LSU won by 24)
Bama by 16.90 over Auburn (Bama won by 28)
MSU by 21.21 over Ole Miss (MSU won by 28)
UT by 5.68 over UK (UK won by 3)
This weeks analysis
LSU by 18.96 over UGA (Odds of LSU win = 91.06%)
LSU by 5.53 over Bama (Odds of LSU win = 63.44%)
Team Ratings...
1. LSU 45.15 +/- 6.02
2. Alabama 39.62 +/- 10.15
3. Arkansas 30.85 +/- 8.78
4. South Carolina 28.06 +/- 7.92
5. Florida 27.97 +/- 11.78
6. Georgia 26.19 +/- 8.06
7. Mississippi State 18.71 +/- 4.20
8. Vanderbilt 18.68 +/- 5.04
9. Auburn 16.32 +/- 9.44
10. Tennessee 11.25 +/- 6.14
11. Kentucky 3.50 +/- 10.27
12. Ole Miss 0.00 +/- 7.15
EDT: Corrections made!
This post was edited on 11/27/11 at 1:22 am
3
Posted on 11/27/11 at 1:08 am to DocBugbear
Ooops Bama won by 28. I have to crunch my numbers again...
Posted on 11/27/11 at 1:09 am to DocBugbear
I'm honored to be the first to thank you for posting this.
It would be an honor to face Alabama in the BCSNC.
Since 2007, I have been of the opinion that a prerequisite for appearing in the BCSNC game should be that you have won your conference. However, I realize that the rules don't currently have this prerequisite.
It would be an honor to face Alabama in the BCSNC.
Since 2007, I have been of the opinion that a prerequisite for appearing in the BCSNC game should be that you have won your conference. However, I realize that the rules don't currently have this prerequisite.
Posted on 11/27/11 at 1:10 am to DocBugbear
I have no idea what you're talking about, but it looks like the numbers support us. Cool.
Posted on 11/27/11 at 1:24 am to DanglingFury
Corrections made... 
Subtract the rating for two teams in a game and you'll get the average margin of victory should the two teams play. The uncertainties allow you to calculate percentages.
quote:
I have no idea what you're talking about, but it looks like the numbers support us. Cool.
Subtract the rating for two teams in a game and you'll get the average margin of victory should the two teams play. The uncertainties allow you to calculate percentages.
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