re: Dont let today's fools gold fool you.

No problem teacher.


It looks like 1186 is the magic number.

That seems to be the wall.

All this info is 2nd hand so I am making some assumptions just like the rest of you.

Im sure he picked 1180 so he would have a little bit of wiggle room.

It would suck if it had only gone up to 1179 then crashed and missed out on an entry.

Lets see if this 1186 holds up like he says.

Baylor is like a freaking wizard. I haven't felt this good about the future since the palm reader in Jackson Square told me I would marry Olivia Wilde.

Devil's advocate post #2

S&P moves up 4.63%

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dead cat bounce

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Article on large number of insider buys

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I think that party is just about over.

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You or him?

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What is the fundamental basis for your friend's speculation? Any idea?

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Sounds like Elliot Wave. The EW traders are predicting deflation. I've seen some final bottom predictions that I don't even want to mention.

Look at the 20 year chart of Japan. I think that yesterday the Nikkei close was something like 70% off of it's all time highs. Question for individual investors to answer is are we Japan?

By the way, here is the link to the CNBC interview that NC_Tigah mentioned. I think that this is the same guy who was on earlier in the summer and predicted the August drop.

CNBC Video

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Look at the 20 year chart of Japan. I think that yesterday the Nikkei close was something like 70% off of it's all time highs. Question for individual investors to answer is are we Japan?

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Even though Japan had a lot of different economic problems than we do, this statistic still scares the shite out of me. How did any middle-aged Japanese from then retire? I guess US equities ftw. Do they have a lot of corporate pension plans over there?

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There has to be more than technical analysis backing up those numbers Baylor. If not your buddy's predictions are barely worth the price of a palm reading. For example predictions of a 667 test would imply market fundamentals approaching those of 3/09 at some point in the near future. What is the fundamental basis for your friend's speculation? Any idea? Not pimping you here at all because you've been very candid about your personal knowledge, and you buddy seems correct for the most part. But (and I'm being kind here) solely technical-based bets that far in the future, and that dramatic, suck far more often than not. e.g., Walt Zimmerman just predicted the S&P dropping to 570 based on a '5-wave pattern' duplicating the 07-09 plunge. Question being, "what would the market basis driving those technicals be?" Put another way, if the S&P tests 670-800, our economy, our deficit, and world markets would likely drop us into worldwide depression. Even short of that, ramifications would be huge. Politically the effects would be catastrophic, almost unimaginable. Flip side strategies at this stage would have investors picking solid dividend producing DJIA types on current dips. Seems like stronger advice to me. I don't know that we've quite hit bottom in the S&P, but w/o some unforeseen catastrophe, I'd be very surprised if things progressed the way your friend speculates.

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Lots of very good questions in this post.
And to be quite frank some of them are over my head.

But I will answer the questions that I know the answer to.

I do know my friend reads charts so I assume that some technical is involved.

But the main thing he goes by is deep insiders.
Not the ones that CNBC has been talking about the last few days.

The next point involves the 667 bottom.

I never said and he never said we will hit 667.
He just said it could happen.

You never know until you reach the next level in the downward movement.


The next move down is 1000.
Once that is hit, then he will have the info that he needs to determine if the 800 level will be hit.

Then when/if the 800 level gets hit, he will have the info needed for the next support level.

Its like driving in fog. You can see in front of you but you dont know where point C is until after you reach point B.

1000 is a certain unless something crazy happens like a 2 to 4 trillion package from the Government.

QE 3 would not even help.

It would take the Government lifting the debt ceiling much higher then what was just approved and throwing trillions at the problem.

So assuming none of happening this means 1000 is certain.

800 is also almost 100% certain, but not quite a lock yet.

You would figure that once the market does go below 1000 the chances become much greater for the government to take drastic measures, but this is something none of us know until it happens.

We have to take it one step at a time.

I hope I represented the info I was given at least half arse.

I try not to bother this guy with too many questions. Especially during the trading day.

This is my last post till Monday, im going out of town.

And please excuse my sentences, using a phone to type still suck

What does your friend think about the precious metals "bubble" like gold and silver?

As the market goes down will these go up, down, or he does not deal with metals?
Would mining stocks be good to own or will all stocks get hammered due to computer program trading that will dump everything including the wife, the dog, the truck, and the kitchen sink?

You guys encouraged him. He's like a little dog after you've grilled hamburgers.