BCS Implications for LSU

Rank the probability of the following:

1. TCU losing a game to either SDSU or New Mexico

2. Boise losing a game (@ Idaho, vs Fresno St, @ Nevada, vs Utah St)

3. Oregon losing a game (@ Cal, Arizona, @ Oregon St)

4. Auburn losing a game to Georgia or Alabama

5. Auburn losing to both Georgia and Alabama



I'll say:

1. 1% chance
2. 15-20% chance. Both Fresno and Nevada could be competitive
3. 10% chance. I'll give Cal a shot since they have played very well at home
4. 25% chance they lose 1
5. 5% chance they lose both