Vegas or "Experts" ?

Probably over 90% of the time... Vegas!

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Probably over 90% of the time... Vegas!

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yep

I thought the line opened at -7...THATS Vegas. The movement to -10 is them taking advantage of the betters.

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Who's right ... Vegas or the "Experts" ?

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Vegas doesn't try to be "right". Vegas tries to make money. All Vegas wants is to split the winners and losers as close to 50-50 as possible at any given final point spread. They need to be able to pay the winners with the losers' money, and pocket the juice. That's all.

That said, the Vegas closing lines will probably still be better than the experts.

there trying to get more money on wv to even out the betting. all this line movement means is people are betting too much on lsu for this game. i don't think people will ever understand this. vegas could give a rats arse who wins this game or, technically, any other game either.

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Vegas doesn't try to be "right". Vegas tries to make money. All Vegas wants is to split the winners and losers as close to 50-50 as possible at any given final point spread. They need to be able to pay the winners with the losers' money, and pocket the juice. That's all.

That said, the Vegas closing lines will probably still be better than the experts.

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I know how it works. I was generalizing the line vs the media. My point is a lot of media is going against what the line movement generally means. I agree, I think the line moving our way is indicative of the way the game will go.

As a side note: Herbsteit just picked LSU, go figure.

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I was generalizing the line vs the media. My point is a lot of media is going against what the line movement generally means.

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If you're talking about the media talking heads, they have to pick a few upsets to seem like they know what they're talking about. Anybody can recite the Vegas lines on TV, but it takes an "expert" to go against the grain.

You also made reference to betting sites that say to take WV+9. I would venture to say that if Vegas could redo this week, they would start the line at around LSU -8.5 or -9 and it wouldn't have moved to 10. That -10 is probably an "overcorrection", in quotes because that's exactly where it needs to be to insure a profit for Vegas. As in, if the line had started at -10, it probably would be moving in the other direction, passing right over the ideal spread.