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Started By
Message
There are 30 people in a room...
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:20 am
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:20 am
You and a friend walk in. Neither you, nor your friend know any of them.
Your friend offers to bet you that at least two of those 30 people will have the same birth date (birth year excluded).
Do you take the bet?
Your friend offers to bet you that at least two of those 30 people will have the same birth date (birth year excluded).
Do you take the bet?
10
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:22 am to deuceiswild
I'd bet that this thread is a piece of shite
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:22 am to deuceiswild
No. Never take a proposition bet that seems like a sure thing.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:23 am to deuceiswild
I bet you get more downvotes than upvotes
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 3:23 am
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:23 am to deuceiswild
Yes. Even though he has the slight edge in % chance. I think it's 25 or 27 that it's a 50-50 chance, so the extra couple adds a few percent to his side.
Probably about the same odds of winning a hand of blackjack
Probably about the same odds of winning a hand of blackjack
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:24 am to Nado Jenkins83
what the odds for that one?
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:25 am to deuceiswild
No because I've seen this factoid a dozen times.
This post was edited on 8/12/17 at 3:26 am
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:26 am to deuceiswild
Do 30 people make the odds greater or less than 1/2. That's the question. This won't be easy.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:27 am to grape nutz
It's 25 or 27 for 50/50 and 75 for 99.99%
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:27 am to beerJeep
I believe the break even point is between the 23rd and 24th person. If not, its between the 24th and 25th.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:27 am to beerJeep
Thanks. I think the math is ridiculous to figure that out however.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:28 am to grape nutz
with 30 people the odds are much greater than 50/50.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:30 am to grape nutz
1 * 1/365 * 1/364 * 1/363 * 1/362..... however many times you have to go in order to hit .500.
I believe it to be between the 23rd and 24th person.
I believe it to be between the 23rd and 24th person.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:30 am to deuceiswild
From Wikipedia. I was off a few, but close enough.
quote:
However, 99.9% probability is reached with just 70 people, and 50% probability with 23 people. These conclusions are based on the assumption that each day of the year (except February 29) is equally probable for a birthday.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:30 am to deuceiswild
I'm not disagreeing. Not sure how to derive it.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:31 am to deuceiswild
Very nice. Makes sense.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:42 am to deuceiswild
it is a .8% of a chance 2 people in the party have the same birthday in the room. So unless it is a dual birthday party, you see twins or it is your friends or your birthday at a birthday party than yes you take the bet.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:57 am to stelly1025
I don't remember the exact % with 30 people. But I have it in my head that its around 80% chance that at least two will have the same bday. If you meant to say 80% (not .8%) then I agree.
If you do indeed believe that there's less than 1% chance that at least 2 people out of a random 30 people will have the same bday then you are way off.
If you do indeed believe that there's less than 1% chance that at least 2 people out of a random 30 people will have the same bday then you are way off.
Posted on 8/12/17 at 3:59 am to stelly1025
quote:
it is a .8% of a chance 2 people in the party have the same birthday in the room. So unless it is a dual birthday party, you see twins or it is your friends or your birthday at a birthday party than yes you take the bet.
:wrong:
Posted on 8/12/17 at 4:04 am to deuceiswild
No. You just take 10th grade math and you want to show off or something?
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