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Started By
Message
Calling stats nerds...
Posted on 2/9/24 at 4:44 pm
Posted on 2/9/24 at 4:44 pm
WARNING:::: NERD DISCUSSION
I teach a very basic intro to epidemiology and stats (for a long time but I always try to improve it year to year) course at my school. I will be explaining p-value concept and its misinterpretations... one of which is that its the probability that the findings are due to chance. But thats not technically correct.
A point I made during this discussion is that chance and random variation are not the same, though they seem so. Students say whats the difference. THis is what I have come up with after reading alot of different theories...Chance is a mathematical term whereas random variation is noise in the system or random error that can’t be predicted mathematically. Chance can be mathematically calculated.
How far off am it in this?
I teach a very basic intro to epidemiology and stats (for a long time but I always try to improve it year to year) course at my school. I will be explaining p-value concept and its misinterpretations... one of which is that its the probability that the findings are due to chance. But thats not technically correct.
A point I made during this discussion is that chance and random variation are not the same, though they seem so. Students say whats the difference. THis is what I have come up with after reading alot of different theories...Chance is a mathematical term whereas random variation is noise in the system or random error that can’t be predicted mathematically. Chance can be mathematically calculated.
How far off am it in this?
9
Posted on 2/9/24 at 4:48 pm to TSS4LSU
Posted on 2/9/24 at 4:51 pm to TSS4LSU
quote:Around 350 pis
How far off am it in this?
Posted on 2/9/24 at 4:52 pm to TSS4LSU
Posted on 2/9/24 at 4:56 pm to TSS4LSU
I'd argue that random variation can be predicted mathematically, it's how capable or willing you are to find and mitigate the causes of it.
Therefore chance is basically the same thing as random variation. It's the level of uncertainity in the process.
Therefore chance is basically the same thing as random variation. It's the level of uncertainity in the process.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 4:56 pm to TSS4LSU
From my perspective (IT) randomness is dependant on the size and content of the dataset. Numbers, alpha characters, colors. Too small and it can be calculated to a percentage of chance. Rather than using 'random' because simply put if we tell a computer to generate a 'random' string, it can actually be predicted to some degree. Instead we use entropy.....
enjoy that rabbit hole!
enjoy that rabbit hole!
Posted on 2/9/24 at 5:07 pm to TSS4LSU
How I've heard it explained is that p-value isn't necessarily the probability that something is due to chance, but the probability of obtaining the same result under the same conditions. If looked at in this scope, "chance" shouldn't factor in because there is a condition that exists where it will NOT be the same result, which is inherently probability in and of itself.
It points to the importance of diving deeper and measuring r-squared in order to identify which precise factors influence the result and by how much. I have no idea what I'm talking about and just made up everything I just said.
It points to the importance of diving deeper and measuring r-squared in order to identify which precise factors influence the result and by how much. I have no idea what I'm talking about and just made up everything I just said.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 5:13 pm to TSS4LSU
Random variation is also called chance variation in statistics, at least what I know of it.
I think that is the definition of the p-value. I believe you are overthinking it or I am not understanding what you are trying to get at.
But this is certainly not my area of expertise so I could easily be way off.
One thing I think I know about randomness or chance calculations is they only predict the likelihood of some random thing happening and not specific things randomly happening if that makes sense. So you could predict the probability a virus or bacteria will eventually mutate randomly but you cannot predict the probability it will mutate a certain way.
quote:
one of which is that its the probability that the findings are due to chance.
I think that is the definition of the p-value. I believe you are overthinking it or I am not understanding what you are trying to get at.
But this is certainly not my area of expertise so I could easily be way off.
One thing I think I know about randomness or chance calculations is they only predict the likelihood of some random thing happening and not specific things randomly happening if that makes sense. So you could predict the probability a virus or bacteria will eventually mutate randomly but you cannot predict the probability it will mutate a certain way.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 5:18 pm to TSS4LSU
quote:
WARNING:::: NERD DISCUSSION
I teach a very basic intro to epidemiology and stats (for a long time but I always try to improve it year to year) course at my school. I will be explaining p-value concept and its misinterpretations... one of which is that its the probability that the findings are due to chance. But thats not technically correct.
A point I made during this discussion is that chance and random variation are not the same, though they seem so. Students say whats the difference. THis is what I have come up with after reading alot of different theories...Chance is a mathematical term whereas random variation is noise in the system or random error that can’t be predicted mathematically. Chance can be mathematically calculated.
How far off am it in this?
for your purposes in this context... randomness (random variation) are the outcomes with a value outside the scope of predictions for that p-value.
chance is a prediction. randomness is unpredictable.
Posted on 2/9/24 at 7:28 pm to dakarx
quote:
. Instead we use entropy.
How do you use a property with the units of energy per mass-temperature to model a data set?
I understand entropy in a physical sense in terms of lowering it with work input but don't see the connection here with a computer data set.
Posted on 2/17/24 at 7:51 pm to GumboPot
quote:
How do you use a property with the units of energy per mass-temperature to model a data set?
I understand entropy in a physical sense in terms of lowering it with work input but don't see the connection here with a computer data set.
In computing, entropy is the randomness collected by an operating system or application for use in cryptography or other uses that require random data. This randomness is often collected from hardware sources (variance in fan noise or HDD), either pre-existing ones such as mouse movements or specially provided randomness generators. A lack of entropy can have a negative impact on performance and security.
Wikipedia LINK for a simplified definition
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