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re: Billion Dollar Bracket Challenge
Posted on 1/21/14 at 10:28 am to PuntBamaPunt
Posted on 1/21/14 at 10:28 am to PuntBamaPunt
quote:
if that were money and you split it among the United States population, everyone would walk away with $30 million.
Wat
Eta: I am hoping you weren't talking about the billion.
This post was edited on 1/21/14 at 10:29 am
1
Posted on 1/21/14 at 10:32 am to GRTiger
quote:
Wat
Eta: I am hoping you weren't talking about the billion.
No, he should have said everyone would have to fill out 30 billion brackets for every scenario to be accounted for. And he had it right the first time, billion with a B.
Posted on 1/21/14 at 10:32 am to arseinclarse
quote:
The odds are not ideal — a 1 in 9.2 quintillion chance.
I guess technically those are the odds. But you can go ahead and pencil in the #1 seeds to beat the #16 seeds... So your odds are really probably somewhere in the 1 in something trillion or so..
And really you can throw out the trillions of "impossible scenarios" like all double digit seeds making the final 4.
Your odds are more like 1 in a few billion or so.
This post was edited on 1/21/14 at 10:49 am
Posted on 1/21/14 at 10:33 am to PuntBamaPunt
quote:
if you know a little bit about basketball, your odds of a perfect bracket go down to 1 in 128 billion
what are you using to get to this? just by picking 1 seeds to win the first round and similar shite?
Posted on 1/21/14 at 10:55 am to PhiTiger1764
quote:
I guess technically those are the odds. But you can go ahead and pencil in the #1 seeds to beat the #16 seeds... So your odds are really probably somewhere in the 1 in something trillion or so..
Well, let's do it this way. Let's assume that if a #1 played a #16 seed 17 times, that the #1 would win 16 of them. On down to a #8 seed would win 9 out of 17 vs. a #9 seed.
So, in each quadrant of 8 games, the odds would go like this:
(16!/8!)/17^8 = 0.0744, or you have a 7.44% chance of filling out a perfect first round of a region. To do this for all 4 regions drops you down to 0.0744^4 = 0.00003, or a 0.003% chance of filling out a complete perfect first round.
On to round 2, where only #8 seeds and higher are left. This works out (8!/4!)/9^4 = 0.256, or a 25.6% chance of doing this round of a region perfectly. Again, doing this 4 times drops it down to 0.4%.
Round 3, where only #4 seeds and higher are left. Each region here is 48%, so the 4 together is 5.3%.
Round 4, #1 vs #2, would be 2/3 or 66.7% each region, so 19.8% together.
The final 4 is all #1 seeds, so each of them has about an equal chance in each game. The chance of picking perfectly given a final 4 bracket is 12.5%.
Putting it all together, we have 0.00003 * 0.004 * 0.053 * 0.198 * 0.125, which comes out to something like 0.00000000015741, which works out to 1 in 6.4Billion. This should be considered best case scenario. As in, this is close to the chance that the higher seed wins every game.
Posted on 1/21/14 at 10:58 am to Korkstand
quote:
Well, let's do it this way. Let's assume that if a #1 played a #16 seed 17 times, that the #1 would win 16 of them. On down to a #8 seed would win 9 out of 17 vs. a #9 seed.
So, in each quadrant of 8 games, the odds would go like this:
(16!/8!)/17^8 = 0.0744, or you have a 7.44% chance of filling out a perfect first round of a region. To do this for all 4 regions drops you down to 0.0744^4 = 0.00003, or a 0.003% chance of filling out a complete perfect first round.
On to round 2, where only #8 seeds and higher are left. This works out (8!/4!)/9^4 = 0.256, or a 25.6% chance of doing this round of a region perfectly. Again, doing this 4 times drops it down to 0.4%.
Round 3, where only #4 seeds and higher are left. Each region here is 48%, so the 4 together is 5.3%.
Round 4, #1 vs #2, would be 2/3 or 66.7% each region, so 19.8% together.
The final 4 is all #1 seeds, so each of them has about an equal chance in each game. The chance of picking perfectly given a final 4 bracket is 12.5%.
Putting it all together, we have 0.00003 * 0.004 * 0.053 * 0.198 * 0.125, which comes out to something like 0.00000000015741, which works out to 1 in 6.4Billion. This should be considered best case scenario. As in, this is close to the chance that the higher seed wins every game.
right. i mean, no one's disputing that. we all know that.
but check it out...do you have to get the final score of the championship game right, too? that's the impossible part.
Posted on 1/21/14 at 11:00 am to SippyCup
in high school, i almost got the entire first round right. only game i didnt call was cleveland state upsetting #3 wake forest. i was number 1 on espn until the sweet 16. i started calling upsets and favs were rolling
one of proudest achievements in my life
one of proudest achievements in my life
Posted on 1/21/14 at 11:00 am to link
Doubt it, score is usually the tie breaker for competitions, since this one is splitting the money for winners there's no need for that.
Posted on 1/21/14 at 11:01 am to link
quote:
o you have to get the final score of the championship game right, too? that's the impossible part.
frick no
that shite's for tiebreakers only
Posted on 1/21/14 at 11:04 am to Korkstand
Great analysis. Much more realistic and accurate odds.
Posted on 1/21/14 at 11:04 am to Carson123987
i know it's usually for tie breakers, big carson.
what are you gonna do with the money?
what are you gonna do with the money?
Posted on 1/21/14 at 11:19 am to link
quote:
i know it's usually for tie breakers, big carson.
i know you know. i was stressing the only
quote:
what are you gonna do with the money?
yacht, blow, mansion, the usual. may send some to lester earl and cosmo
what are you gonna do with it
Posted on 1/21/14 at 12:23 pm to Korkstand
quote:
which works out to 1 in 6.4Billion. This should be considered best case scenario. As in, this is close to the chance that the higher seed wins every game.
it's better than that, for sure. you gave a 1 seed 16/17? that's obviously wayyyyyyy too low. a 2 seed at 15/17 is also way too low. pretty positive a 3 seed at 14/17 is still way too low. once it gets closer to the 8 seed, it seems fair.
i get that the odds are still 1 in X.XX billion, but they are better than what you have presented, damn it!
Posted on 1/21/14 at 12:46 pm to rockchlkjayhku11
quote:It's too low, yeah, but I wouldn't say it's way with 7 y's too low.
it's better than that, for sure. you gave a 1 seed 16/17? that's obviously wayyyyyyy too low. a 2 seed at 15/17 is also way too low. pretty positive a 3 seed at 14/17 is still way too low. once it gets closer to the 8 seed, it seems fair.
Even if the #1 seed wins every time, I'm only 6% too low at worst. I just found the actual data as of 2012.
#1 seeds have won 100% of the time, while my estimate was 94.1%
#2 seeds have won 96% of the time, and my estimate was 88.2%
#3 seeds have won 85% of the time, and my estimate was 82.4%
#4 seeds have won 79%, my estimate was 76.5%
#5 seeds have won 67%, my estimate was 70.6%
#6 seeds have won 67%, my estimate was 64.7%
#7 seeds have won 60%, my estimate was 58.8%
#8 seeds have won 47%, my estimate was 52.9%
Doesn't seem too bad a job of estimating, to me, considering they were just based on simple arithmetic on seeds.
quote:
i get that the odds are still 1 in X.XX billion, but they are better than what you have presented, damn it!
Are they, though?
Posted on 1/21/14 at 12:51 pm to Carson123987
quote:switch to part time, invest some, and give most of it away to charities.
what are you gonna do with it
Posted on 1/21/14 at 12:56 pm to link
If someone had it down to the Final Four it could get real interesting with promises to give each player $$$$ in exchange for games going the right way.
God could you imagine the backlash if someone had it to the final game and there was a controversial call
God could you imagine the backlash if someone had it to the final game and there was a controversial call
Posted on 1/21/14 at 1:15 pm to Larry
quote:
God could you imagine the backlash if someone had it to the final game and there was a controversial call
Make a friend with hundreds of millions of dollars to help you hedge the last game
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