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re: Autonomous 18-wheelers are almost here. (Maximum Overdrive will happen soon)
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:30 pm to RedRifle
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:30 pm to RedRifle
As someone who deals with trucking companies on a regular basis, it'll take 10 plus years for the medium and smaller companies to purchase the new trucks once they get readily accepted. I think the soonest you'll see driverless trucks is taking over is 2030, but probably 2035.
Lawyers will be feasting.
Lawyers will be feasting.
1
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:34 pm to Jcorye1
E logs driving up those rates
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:36 pm to LSUvegasbombed
quote:
E logs driving up those rates
Good point. Whats the fleet size cutoff on those? I'm not looking forward to it, companies already throw out their driver logs after 90 days/6 months because DOT tells them it's ok.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:36 pm to RedRifle
This is going to completely change the transportation energy. Sure, it's going to remove almost all driver jobs, but the average age of big rig drivers is in the mid-50's, and nobody wants those jobs any more.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:43 pm to Jcorye1
quote:
Whats the fleet size cutoff on those?
1.
Literally every truck on the road. Although, new things circulating this morning that an effort to delay the mandate is gaining traction in Congress. There is already a bill in the Senate to grant exemptions to Cattle and Insect haulers. IMO, once they grant one exception the mandate will end up delayed. We shall see.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:59 pm to ChewyDante
quote:
So long as they don't jump into the left lane to pass other 18 wheelers by one mph faster I'm all for it.
This shite right here is why I have zero pity for the truckers that autonomous trucks are going to put out of a job.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 3:02 pm to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
This shite right here is why I have zero pity for the truckers that autonomous trucks are going to put out of a job.
Youll have a problem with it when all of the goods your buying go up in price by 50% to offset the cost of the new driverless trucks.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 3:04 pm to wadewilson
quote:
nobody wants those jobs any more.
no one wants those long haul orders
Most drivers want those short hauls so they can be at home at night or at least for the weekends.
So basically carriers are just going to increase there rate to make up for the E logs making trips longer now.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 3:04 pm to RedRifle
quote:
He also said the trucks would be more efficient because they wouldn't waste fuel by accelerating and braking as frequently.
They obviously didn't test these in BR...
Posted on 7/18/17 at 3:08 pm to lsuhunt555
quote:
Youll have a problem with it when all of the goods your buying go up in price by 50% to offset the cost of the new driverless trucks.
actually come December you will fully see the effect from E logs.
carriers increase their rates which will have a domino effect across the board. Manufactures will increase their rate because the carrier increased their rate, the customer receiving the product\raw material will increase their rate since they are being charged more, which wil result in the consumer good price increasing.
This will happen to every single product\produce that utilizes trucking companies
Posted on 7/18/17 at 3:12 pm to wadewilson
That's not going to happen.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 3:14 pm to LSUvegasbombed
quote:
actually come December you will fully see the effect from E logs.
Consumers won't see the effects that soon. Hell, i've got customers that didnt know about the mandate until 2 weeks ago.
quote:
This will happen to every single product\produce that utilizes trucking companies
It will affect the cost of living throughout the country. People sat and watched their legislative representatives do this without knowing what they were doing and theyre going to pay for it.
This post was edited on 7/18/17 at 3:19 pm
Posted on 7/18/17 at 3:15 pm to lsuhunt555
quote:
Im going to program all of mine to ride in the left lane and do the speed limit. People are idiot drivers.
OT, track this man down so we can...
Posted on 7/18/17 at 3:17 pm to lsuhunt555
quote:
Youll have a problem with it when all of the goods your buying go up in price by 50% to offset the cost of the new driverless trucks.
The beauty is that the prices won't have to go up. Not paying the drivers and the fact that the trucks can go 24/7 is going to offset the increased cost of the machines, and the prices on the machines themselves will come down over time.
It's funny that you think that THIS time will be the one where automation doesn't prove more cost effective and efficient. It might not happen tomorrow, but it IS coming.
This post was edited on 7/18/17 at 3:21 pm
Posted on 7/18/17 at 3:22 pm to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
Not paying the drivers and the fact that the trucks can go 24/7 is going to offset the increased cost of the machine.
We are YEARS away from these trucks being totally unmanned and being able to go 24/7. So yea, prices will go up initially because costs will be higher. Once the automation makes it more efficient people arent going to lower their prices.
quote:
It's funny that you think that THIS time will be the one where automation doesn't prove more cost effective and efficient.
It's not that this is that moment, its that they now want to implement automation AT THE SAME TIME that they are regulating the shite out of the industry. All costs are about to be higher come the end of the year.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 3:30 pm to TigerstuckinMS
First, these trucks won't be on the road in any meaningful capacity for another 20 years, at least. Second, there will be a "driver" in the truck, always.
Might be more efficient, but also more expensive. A new relatively basic Freightliner is about $160,000. Bet these trucks are double the cost. And the maintenance on these things is going to be higher, too. More training for mechanics, more parts that can break, lots of regulatory stuff that requires more stringent safety inspections...
I'm also curious how this all plays out the first time one of these autonomous trucks plows into a pile of 4-wheelers because of a mechanical failure.
Might be more efficient, but also more expensive. A new relatively basic Freightliner is about $160,000. Bet these trucks are double the cost. And the maintenance on these things is going to be higher, too. More training for mechanics, more parts that can break, lots of regulatory stuff that requires more stringent safety inspections...
I'm also curious how this all plays out the first time one of these autonomous trucks plows into a pile of 4-wheelers because of a mechanical failure.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 3:31 pm to lsuhunt555
quote:
It's not that this is that moment, its that they now want to implement automation AT THE SAME TIME that they are regulating the shite out of the industry.
Agreed, that's a different set of circumstances. Regulation rarely makes things cheaper or more efficient. The inexorable march of technology, though, almost guarantees that at some point, the driver will no longer add the value of his salary to his employer and at that point, the driver will be gone.
This post was edited on 7/18/17 at 3:39 pm
Posted on 7/18/17 at 3:35 pm to The Quiet One
quote:
I'm also curious how this all plays out the first time one of these autonomous trucks plows into a pile of 4-wheelers because of a mechanical failure.
Me too.
Personally, I fail to see how it's different if there's a human turning the wheel. If a steering linkage breaks at 70 mph, it's a bad day no matter who's in charge. You can be sure that the scumbag attorneys are going to pretend it is somehow different and try to extort more money than they usually do, though, the first few times.
Come to think of it, if autonomous trucks are safer, the attorneys going to try to make every at-fault accident going forward an international crisis to get more money because there simply won't be as many lawsuits for those leeches to file. Another hidden cost savings of autonomous vehicles!
This post was edited on 7/18/17 at 3:40 pm
Posted on 7/18/17 at 3:43 pm to TigerstuckinMS
The reality is if you're going to make a vehicle with a gross weight of 40 tons "autonomous", then all vehicles on the road need to be "autonomous" as well to ensure the best communication between those vehicles. Even then, shite breaks and accidents happen. There will always be risk, although I admire the effort to mitigate it.
An autonomous truck isn't going to avoid a crash because honky lips in his Dodge Ram tried to swerve over 3 lanes to get to the exit ramp at the last second. It also isn't going to stop the tailgater in the Pirius from eating the back end of the trailer when the auto-truck comes to a sudden stop.
I get the feeling people think these vehicles are magic.
An autonomous truck isn't going to avoid a crash because honky lips in his Dodge Ram tried to swerve over 3 lanes to get to the exit ramp at the last second. It also isn't going to stop the tailgater in the Pirius from eating the back end of the trailer when the auto-truck comes to a sudden stop.
I get the feeling people think these vehicles are magic.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 3:53 pm to The Quiet One
quote:
An autonomous truck isn't going to avoid a crash because honky lips in his Dodge Ram tried to swerve over 3 lanes to get to the exit ramp at the last second. It also isn't going to stop the tailgater in the Pirius from eating the back end of the trailer when the auto-truck comes to a sudden stop.
I get the feeling people think these vehicles are magic.
If I'm on a jury and it's obvious that Captain Smug offed himself because he drove his Prius headlong into 80,000 pounds of steel and cargo, I don't care if the truck was autonomous or not. It's Captain Smug's fault and I'm telling his family they'll get nothing and they need to get bent. I'm also awarding the trucking company legal fees if they ask for it.
It's demonstrable, though, that autonomous vehicles are far safer than humans when driven in conditions they're programmed properly for. Just look up Google's driving statistics. Sure, it doesn't handle rain or snow well, right now, but they're constantly improving and the day is rapidly approaching when the set of conditions autonomous vehicles handle better than humans can be summed up as "always".
As long as there are humans driving, though, there will be avoidable accidents, but it's fallacious to say that autonomous vehicles should be somehow maligned because they can't avoid an accident for which they're not at-fault.
EDIT: How did I get into a serious discussion on the OT when I just came here to shite on truckers that set up rolling roadblocks to pass other truckers going a half mile an hour slower than they are?
This post was edited on 7/18/17 at 4:02 pm
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