I'll say 11.
You have to figure having a real HC is worth 1-2 wins.
yeah probably so. I'd go further than that though, the KC, CAR (both games), GB, and second Falcons game were all within realistic reach.
Brees had his worst game ever vs. ATL yet the Saints only lost by 10 points. Kind of the same deal with the 49ers. They didn't exactly take it to us in that one either. Two killer interceptions for touchdowns was the difference in that one. That game we also had to start a guy (Robinson #68) who had barely played all season at right tackle.
If they can just get to around 20th in the league in defense
MIGHT not even take that much, but that would be nice. I think the biggest key is shoring up that run defense so they aren't on the field as long.