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Football Outsiders Saints Capology

Posted on 2/22/12 at 8:29 pm
Posted by blueslover
deeper than deep south
Member since Sep 2007
22792 posts
Posted on 2/22/12 at 8:29 pm
Estimated Cap Space: $20-$25 million

Unrestricted Free Agents (16): Drew Brees, Jeff Charleston, Marques Colston, Jo-Lonn Dunbar, Aubrayo Franklin, John Gilmore, Tory Humphrey, John Kasay, Turk McBride, Pat McQuistan, Robert Meachem, Carl Nicks, Tracy Porter, Courtney Roby, Shaun Rogers, Leigh Torrence
Restricted Free Agents (3): Jonathan Casillas, Chase Daniel, Ramon Humber
After missing the 2010 season with a foot injury, Casillas started five of 13 games in 2011, totaling 43 tackles and three sacks. With Jo-Lonn Dunbar an unrestricted free agent, an original round tender ($1.26 million) on Casillas can be expected. Daniel has been the No. 2 quarterback behind Brees the last two seasons and will certainly be back, perhaps at a second- ($1.927 million) or first-round ($2.742 million) tender.
Franchise Tag Candidate: Drew Brees, Marques Colston and Carl Nicks would all warrant the franchise tender, but only one of them can receive it. Brees ranked first in DYAR and second in DVOA in passing for 46 touchdowns and an NFL single-season record 5,476 yards. Given his offensive production and importance to the community, he's not going anywhere. A multi-year extension worth $18 million per year –- the same average per year Peyton Manning and Tom Brady received on their latest contracts -– would certainly be warranted, but there's always the issue of guaranteed money. The quarterback tender would be worth around $14.374 million in 2012. Two seasons ago, the Saints signed Jahri Evans to a seven-year, $56.7 million contract extension. Nicks has been to back-to-back Pro Bowls and will be looking for over $8 million per year on a long-term extension this offseason. Nicks' tender would be worth nearly $9.5 million. Colston ranked in the top 10 in DYAR and DVOA for the second time in the last three seasons and, despite never once making a Pro Bowl, has been one of the most productive receivers in the NFL over the last six seasons. Like the offensive line tender, the cost of using the franchise tag on a wide receiver is worth around $9.5 million.
Potential Cap Casualties/Restructures: The Saints could clear up space by restructuring the contracts of Will Smith ($7.15 million total compensation, $9.15 million cap number), Jonathan Vilma ($5.5 million total compensation, $7.6325 million cap number) and Sedrick Ellis, who added $1.5 million to his base salary and is scheduled to earn $6.066 million with a $7.566 million cap number in the final year of his contract.
LINK

NFC South Cap Space-

dirty birds $20-25mil
Bucs- $60-65mil
cats- $4-5mil over

I've seen some variations on the numbers but the total ending up the same. Bottomline: Loomis will prolly get GM of the Yr consideration again if the Saints go to the SB. He'll surely earn his pay if he pulls it off successfully (no matter how) with all the major personnel issues at hand.
This post was edited on 2/22/12 at 10:22 pm
Posted by Kafka
I am the moral conscience of TD
Member since Jul 2007
142023 posts
Posted on 2/22/12 at 9:02 pm to
quote:

NFC South Cap Space-

cats- $4-5mil over


Hmmmmmm...



what moves will they be forced to make?
Posted by whodatfan
Member since Mar 2008
21332 posts
Posted on 2/22/12 at 9:06 pm to
Damn. Bucs have all kinds of cheddar to spend. Wonder if they'll be the 2012 version of the 2011 Eagles buying up all the top FA.
Posted by jacks40
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2007
11877 posts
Posted on 2/22/12 at 9:09 pm to
quote:

amn. Bucs have all kinds of cheddar to spend. Wonder if they'll be the 2012 version of the 2011 Eagles buying up all the top FA.



They've had plenty of room to spend for the last 2-3 years now and haven't gone wild yet so I don't think they will this year either.

Gonna have to start spending soon though with the new rules
Posted by Rex Manning
San Francisco 49ers Fan
Member since Jul 2011
1966 posts
Posted on 2/22/12 at 9:19 pm to
How in the world are the Panthers so far over the cap with such a meh roster?
Posted by Breesus
House of the Rising Sun
Member since Jan 2010
66982 posts
Posted on 2/22/12 at 9:50 pm to
quote:

How in the world are the Panthers so far over the cap with such a meh roster?


Been handing stars blank checks with no concern for the rest of their roster for a few years if i had to guess...
Posted by THRILLHO
Metry, LA
Member since Apr 2006
49517 posts
Posted on 2/22/12 at 10:00 pm to
Panthers are going to save ~$6m just by not picking up Thomas Davis's option, so they'll be under the cap, though I guess not have a lot of space. They gave bank to Charles Johnson and DeAngelo Williams last season.
Posted by LooseCannon22282
Mobile
Member since May 2008
33745 posts
Posted on 2/22/12 at 10:05 pm to
they also signed Olino Mare to a 4 year/12 million dollar deal. Thats a lot of money for a 39 year old kicker.

also signed LB James Anderson to A 5 year/22 million dollar deal.
This post was edited on 2/22/12 at 10:08 pm
Posted by blueslover
deeper than deep south
Member since Sep 2007
22792 posts
Posted on 2/22/12 at 10:17 pm to
PFF sez this on Thomas-

Linebacker Thomas Davis signed a four-year, $33.2 million contract extension last July. Six weeks later, Davis tore the ACL in his right knee for the third time. While Davis is attempting a comeback, the Panthers are unlikely to exercise an $8 million option bonus that is due on the first or second day of the 2012 league year. If released outright, Davis would clear only $300,000 from the Panthers' salary cap, so a restructure is the more likely path to reduce his $5.9 million cap number.

---------
and ya thought Loomis had it tough
This post was edited on 2/22/12 at 11:15 pm
Posted by Kafka
I am the moral conscience of TD
Member since Jul 2007
142023 posts
Posted on 2/22/12 at 10:24 pm to
quote:

PFF sex this on Thomas



keep that perverted filth on the soccer board
Posted by THRILLHO
Metry, LA
Member since Apr 2006
49517 posts
Posted on 2/22/12 at 10:26 pm to
quote:

Sedrick Ellis, who added $1.5 million to his base salary and is scheduled to earn $6.066 million with a $7.566 million cap number in the final year of his contract.


Holy shite, I had no idea he was going to make that much. I don't care that both Franklin and Rogers are FAs, he's as good as gone. After a bit of a disappointing season from Aubrayo, I'd like to keep him if possible and draft a DT that can get after the QB.

At this point, I'm intrigued by cutting each of Smith/Ellis/Vilma, franchising/trading Nicks, letting Colston walk and signing Mario Williams. Ellis sucks, Vilma is declining (and we don't know that Spags would have him making calls on the defense anyway), and Williams would obviously blow away Smith's production. I don't think it's a great idea to have 2 of the 3 highest paid guards in the NFL, need to spread that money out. Plus we're beasts at drafting OL.

Trading Nicks would likely net us a pick in that 25-40 range. With those first 4 picks, focus on DT/LB/OG, probably in that order. The FA WR class is fricking stacked. This is THE year to have that tough divorce with a guy like Colston, and Brees threw for 5000 yards in 08 with a revolving door at WR with tons of injuries. Plus any WRs that would benefit from signing a 1 year "show me" deal would love to play with Brees.

I think if the front office is willing to have just a "great" offense as opposed to an offense that constantly flirts with/actually does break all time records, we can make a FA splash on defense and focus on that side of the ball to have a more balanced team.
Posted by THRILLHO
Metry, LA
Member since Apr 2006
49517 posts
Posted on 2/22/12 at 10:35 pm to
quote:

If released outright, Davis would clear only $300,000 from the Panthers' salary cap


I don't understand what's going on there then. They would be saving the $8m option bonus + $2.25m base + $250k workout bonus (which he won't be able to complete). Signed a $7m signing bonus, only one year into a 5 year deal, so that should be a $5.6m hit. So I figure $10.5m saved - $5.5m hit = $5m saved in 2012. I can't find any other articles specifically saying how much would be saved. Not too worried about it though, if it only saves them $300k, it's better for us.
Posted by blueslover
deeper than deep south
Member since Sep 2007
22792 posts
Posted on 2/22/12 at 10:52 pm to
man I'm witcha. The only thing in cutting is from their numbers it doesn't add up to that much cap savings.

Ellis- $1.5mil, he looked like he was coming on in 2010 with 6 sacks. I'm really puzzled by his down performance last year. Being a contract year ya gotta figure if he is ever gonna ball out it will be now.

Smith- saving $2mil for the best we got isn't much. Seems like he could restructure down more than that. He's gotta know how much over market value he's getting.

Vilma- $2.1mil saving, I love him as a leader but I could see it happening for several reasons:
-Spags call
-Dunbar ready to step up
-knees giving out
Restructure not a bad option if he still has gas and fits the plan

Colston is great and vital but cap realities are tough. I'm not prone to giving mega money to 29yr old WRs that have been under the knife as much as he has. Estimates I've seen are in the 4yr $36-47mil range. Just some of that could get some usable defensive skills. Melikes Reggie Wayne as a cheaper fill. Maybe 2-3 yrs for $12-15mil. He hasn't missed a game in 10yrs btw.
Posted by DownHome
Below the Equator
Member since Jan 2012
10138 posts
Posted on 2/22/12 at 10:56 pm to
quote:

I'm intrigued by cutting each of Smith/Ellis/Vilma,


Just don't think this going to happen. To much guarenteed money to make much of a savings to help with the cap hit. Think a more realistic tought would be that they restructure so we don't have all that money against the cap where we some flexablilty to resign some players or hit the FA market.
Posted by blueslover
deeper than deep south
Member since Sep 2007
22792 posts
Posted on 2/22/12 at 10:57 pm to
quote:

I don't understand what's going on there then


that's why I mentioned I've seen other numbers too (like savings on cutting Smith). Cap management is so vital and the public is now aware of it that an official list of such things would be nice rather than scouring assorted sources with different takes. It should get much clearer soon though once the cap is announced and the new league year starts.
Posted by DownHome
Below the Equator
Member since Jan 2012
10138 posts
Posted on 2/22/12 at 11:12 pm to
This is what I love about Loomis, the man is a genious when it comes to numbers with the cap.

Remember last year with all the free agents we had most thought there was no way we could keep the team together.

Granted most were not key personel but the man worked it out where we kept the key people and still had the money to sign some FA's.

Just hope we can see some of that same kind of magic this year.
Posted by ColtsTigers
New Orleans
Member since Jun 2009
2248 posts
Posted on 2/22/12 at 11:48 pm to
quote:

Ellis sucks


You're not going to get a DT in free agency as good as Ellis for a reasonable price, and you certainly won't find one in the draft as a rookie.
Posted by GFunk
Denham Springs
Member since Feb 2011
14966 posts
Posted on 2/23/12 at 12:00 pm to
Lots of rumors about the Romeus guy being "hidden" on our roster while rehabbing. If he comes back, most anyone whose seen him thinks he's got potential to be an impact pass-rusher in this league.

I also think that the Saints have got to clear the logjam at tailback. Loomis/Payton need to make a decision on whether to keep Ivory or Pierre. I know we just gave Thomas a contract, but with Ingram's health & Sproles incalcuable value, we have one tailback too many.

I think you could package a Thomas and another player here or there and get some SERIOUS value.
Posted by 99DSTJ
K-Town
Member since Jun 2009
786 posts
Posted on 2/23/12 at 12:07 pm to
quote:

I think you could package a Thomas and another player here or there and get some SERIOUS value.


I would be very disappointed if we got rid of Thomas, until Ingram comes around he is still our best all around RB. The last time he was healthy in the post season we won the super bowl. And could have been MVP for that game if it wasnt for Brees. I like Ivorys running style but if we lose anyone that would be the guy to me. The only problem is that he has virtually no trade value.
Posted by DownHome
Below the Equator
Member since Jan 2012
10138 posts
Posted on 2/23/12 at 12:45 pm to
PT not going anywhere. He brings to much value to the team with the screen game and his running. With him and Sproles the Saints are the best screen running team in the NFL. Payton not going to give up that aspect on offence.
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