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Posted on 4/18/12 at 11:39 am to tehchampion140
quote:
At worst T Rob comes in and immediately produces like a better rebounding Carl Landry. Give him a few years and I see him being at least an All Star.
No way he can score in the NBA half court as good as Landry right now. No way. This is what I'm talking about. Putting unrealistic expectations on the guy.
ETA: Let's continue the comparison game...would you rather a better rebounding Carl Landry or a more athletic David West?
This post was edited on 4/18/12 at 11:41 am
Posted on 4/18/12 at 11:43 am to ScoopAndScore
quote:
No way he can score in the NBA half court as good as Landry right now. No way
I don't see why not. He's already bigger than Landry and his post game should translate to the NBA fairly quickly. Not to mention he's 10x the athlete Landry ever was.
Posted on 4/18/12 at 11:46 am to ScoopAndScore
Obviously a more athletic David West but if you're saying that's Sullinger then you're pretty far off. He isn't very athletic at all. He also has nowhere near the jumper that West had. He could develop it and basically become a David West clone but T Rob is a much much safer pick at the moment.
Posted on 4/18/12 at 11:50 am to tehchampion140
quote:
Obviously a more athletic David West but if you're saying that's Sullinger then you're pretty far off. He isn't very athletic at all. He also has nowhere near the jumper that West had. He could develop it and basically become a David West clone but T Rob is a much much safer pick at the moment.
I'm not saying Sullinger is athletic but he's more athletic than West. C'mon, DWest has/had zero athelticism. And DWest didn't always have as great of a jumper as he ended up with. My analysis, Sullinger is a safer pick but TRob obviously has upside and higher possible ceiling. And everyone loves to draft potential and upside. I'd rather take MKG and Sullinger than TROb and then who at 10-12?
Posted on 4/18/12 at 11:53 am to ScoopAndScore
quote:
Sullinger is athletic but he's more athletic than West. C'mon, DWest has/had zero athelticism.
WTF?
quote:
Sullinger is a safer pick
And what's this backroom rumor about Sullinger having a problem with uneven leg length, btw?
Posted on 4/18/12 at 11:54 am to ScoopAndScore
quote:
I'd rather take MKG and Sullinger than TROb
No way in hell. Both players are huge risks, not to mention I heard that Sullinger may have some injury issues.
quote:
and then who at 10-12?
I've really taken a liking to Damian Lillard but the Jazz will probably take him to replace Harris. Not sure who I want at that spot. I used to like Tyler Zeller but I am unsure about him.
Posted on 4/18/12 at 11:55 am to Studmuffin09
quote:
Its like that board near the roulette tables listing the numbers that have won recently, just because they won in the past doesnt change the chance on where the ball lands next. If i was forced to bet, i would go with 1 or 2 rather than 3
Boom. We have a winner.
But I'll play along with the OP.
Let's say you have 4 teams and 10 ping pong balls.
Team A has the worst record, ergo more ping pong balls. Team D has the best record of the 4, ergo less ping pong balls.
Team A - 4/10 balls
Team B - 3/10 balls
Team C - 2/10 balls
Team D - 1/10 balls
Even in Chad's example, Team A may have a 60% chance of NOT getting the first pick, but let's break down the rest of the field's probability of NOT getting the first pick.
Team B - 70% chance of not getting the 1st pick
Team C - 80% chance of not getting the 1st pick
Team D - 90% chance of not getting the 1st pick
So even with "Us vs Field" logic, we are still better off at the #1 position (worst record) than we would be at #3 position (third worst record).
Past drafts mean NOTHING. It's numbers, it's math, it's fact. If you think that having the 1st or 2nd overall chance at winning the draft lotto means you have a worse chance than someone at #3 or #4, then you need to quit posting.
That being said, Davis played on the best team in the NCAA last year and was EXTREMELY unselfish. What happens when he is forced to play a bigger role and be more aggresive bc he isn't on a dominant team? It's a scary thought.
He took the 5th most shots on his team and took a lesser role and played hardcore defense. I wanna see his true potential when he decides to be THE MAN. He could be scary good.
This post was edited on 4/18/12 at 11:56 am
Posted on 4/18/12 at 12:04 pm to dcrews
quote:
So even with "Us vs Field" logic, we are still better off at the #1 position (worst record) than we would be at #3 position (third worst record).
You're absolutely correct based upon the odds (statistics).
quote:
Past drafts mean NOTHING. It's numbers, it's math, it's fact.
Correct again.
Nevertheless, there is an 75% chance that the team with the worst record won't get the number one pick. It's just that its chances are a few percentage points higher than that of the third worst record. So past history aligns with the odds . . . the team with the worst record is more likely than not to miss out on the number one pick. Unfortunately, that doesn't increase the odds for any other specific team.
quote:
That being said, Davis played on the best team in the NCAA last year and was EXTREMELY unselfish. What happens when he is forced to play a bigger role and be more aggresive bc he isn't on a dominant team? It's a scary thought.
Good point. While I think you clearly take Davis if available, I'm not convinced he's as far ahead of everyone else as, say, LeBron was when he came out. Or that he will turn into Howard (although it's possible).
This post was edited on 4/18/12 at 12:05 pm
Posted on 4/18/12 at 12:06 pm to dcrews
quote:
But I'll play along with the OP.
Let's say you have 4 teams and 10 ping pong balls.
Team A has the worst record, ergo more ping pong balls. Team D has the best record of the 4, ergo less ping pong balls.
Team A - 4/10 balls
Team B - 3/10 balls
Team C - 2/10 balls
Team D - 1/10 balls
Even in Chad's example, Team A may have a 60% chance of NOT getting the first pick, but let's break down the rest of the field's probability of NOT getting the first pick.
Team B - 70% chance of not getting the 1st pick
Team C - 80% chance of not getting the 1st pick
Team D - 90% chance of not getting the 1st pick
So even with "Us vs Field" logic, we are still better off at the #1 position (worst record) than we would be at #3 position (third worst record).
Past drafts mean NOTHING. It's numbers, it's math, it's fact. If you think that having the 1st or 2nd overall chance at winning the draft lotto means you have a worse chance than someone at #3 or #4, then you need to quit posting.
That being said, Davis played on the best team in the NCAA last year and was EXTREMELY unselfish. What happens when he is forced to play a bigger role and be more aggresive bc he isn't on a dominant team? It's a scary thought.
He took the 5th most shots on his team and took a lesser role and played hardcore defense. I wanna see his true potential when he decides to be THE MAN. He could be scary good.
55.1 > 44.9
15.6 > 11.4
Give it up holmes. You are no mathematician. I got a degree.
Posted on 4/18/12 at 12:15 pm to Chad504boy
quote:
Give it up holmes. You are no mathematician. I got a degree.
Eh, now you're just holding your fingers in your ears screaming "la la la la la"
I already shot your "55.1 > 44.9" theory down. It doesn't hold water if the teams below you have a larger chance of NOT getting picked either. But please, continue to ignore common sense
Posted on 4/18/12 at 12:17 pm to VOR
quote:
Good point. While I think you clearly take Davis if available, I'm not convinced he's as far ahead of everyone else as, say, LeBron was when he came out. Or that he will turn into Howard (although it's possible).
I agree. Howard and James were physical specimens and dominant talents. If Davis can put on some muscle weight and get a little "mean" (for lack of a better term), he will be an all star for years to come.
Posted on 4/18/12 at 12:32 pm to dcrews
quote:
Eh, now you're just holding your fingers in your ears screaming "la la la la la"
Negative holmes.
quote:
I already shot your "55.1 > 44.9" theory down.
No you didn't. You distorted the reality of the situation that odds are against the teams above us getting selected. I don't know what your problem is, do you hate the hornets or something?
Posted on 4/18/12 at 12:56 pm to Chad504boy
I am a fan of the hornets, and im sure dcrews is too. Dont get me wrong, i would love it if we got the number 1 pick, but the fact is that we have the third best odds to get it, which does not make us the favorite for getting it.
Posted on 4/18/12 at 1:05 pm to Studmuffin09
i have no more time for 2 and 3 digit post count posters.
Posted on 4/18/12 at 1:07 pm to dcrews
quote:
Good point. While I think you clearly take Davis if available, I'm not convinced he's as far ahead of everyone else as, say, LeBron was when he came out. Or that he will turn into Howard (although it's possible).
+1
Posted on 4/18/12 at 1:12 pm to Chad504boy
quote:
i have no more time for 2 and 3 digit post count posters.
automatically dismissing people that have a different opinion than you, wow
Posted on 4/18/12 at 1:13 pm to Chad504boy
I'm not sure if youre being serious or not...but you aren't even close to right on this one and you look like a moron.
Posted on 4/18/12 at 1:17 pm to HTownTiger710
quote:
I'm not sure if youre being serious or not...but you aren't even close to right on this one and you look like a moron.
3 digit hater.
Posted on 4/18/12 at 1:19 pm to Chad504boy
i'm sorry just because you post a lot doest make you infallible
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