[quote] but that's roughly the same odds as them coming in at either 3rd or 5th.
Not according to the chart above
odds are they get the 6th pick
You're looking at it wrong. Picking 6th is the most probable individual outcome, but it is not the most probable outcome.
Picking 6th = 36% chance
Picking 5th or better = 55% chance.
Why the shite can we not get 4th?