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How useful is this metric?
Posted on 7/19/15 at 10:14 am
Posted on 7/19/15 at 10:14 am
LINK /
This article uses a WAR metric to make the claim stars are underpaid. Of particular interest is the chart near the bottom, where a PT favorite resides at the bottom of the list. Why or why not is this an accurate way to determine true value?
This article uses a WAR metric to make the claim stars are underpaid. Of particular interest is the chart near the bottom, where a PT favorite resides at the bottom of the list. Why or why not is this an accurate way to determine true value?
Posted on 7/19/15 at 6:12 pm to Milesahead
FWIW, the underpaid/overpaid amount is based on the length of the contract, not a per year average. So some players may actually be more overpaid than Asik or more underpaid than Kawhi on a per year basis (which is what really matters). Interesting stat, but I think it needs a few years to test for accuracy, or to be applied to previous years to see how it predicted on a larger scale.
Overall It does show us who probably got a good deal or bad deal though
Overall It does show us who probably got a good deal or bad deal though
Posted on 7/19/15 at 6:14 pm to Upperdecker
And I think we can all agree, based on last year, Asik got a good deal for himself (bad deal for the team)
I'd bet most big men were overpaid though. That's how it works in a limited market
I'd bet most big men were overpaid though. That's how it works in a limited market
This post was edited on 7/19/15 at 6:17 pm
Posted on 7/20/15 at 8:56 am to Galactic Inquisitor
quote:
Called Aminu underpaid
Aminu is deserving of all the riches in Nigeria. He is grossly underpaid.
Posted on 7/20/15 at 12:15 pm to txbd
Wait one second Mister! I have an email saying a large portion of that Nigerian money is mine!
With new analytics being developed and used more and more in sports, I am interested in seeing where we finally end up. Will it be Ivy league number crunchers as GMS or will it continue to be a mix of former players and NBA lifers that continue to direct teams in the NBA.
With new analytics being developed and used more and more in sports, I am interested in seeing where we finally end up. Will it be Ivy league number crunchers as GMS or will it continue to be a mix of former players and NBA lifers that continue to direct teams in the NBA.
Posted on 7/20/15 at 9:41 pm to Milesahead
I am not sure if i understand it
It says Leonard is worth 54 WAR
is that still wins over replacement?
Does it work different than baseball or are the spurs shite without him?
It says Leonard is worth 54 WAR
is that still wins over replacement?
Does it work different than baseball or are the spurs shite without him?
Posted on 7/20/15 at 9:59 pm to SammyTiger
That's over the next 5 years
Beyond minimum salaries, that is. Throughout this article, I’m adjusting the money teams paid players to account for the fact that the monetary equivalent of “wins above replacement” is “salary above the minimum.” This is because a team should expect a minimum-salary player to produce, by definition, zero WAR. ^
Of those that were signed in 2006 or later and have finished since then. ^
Namely, Real Plus-Minus, Box Plus/Minus, Win Shares and Player Efficiency Rating. ^
We spent a long time backronym-ing this in the office. What we came up with: “Career Arc Regression Model Estimator (with) Local Optimization.” ^
Assuming the value of a non-cost-controlled win scales upward with the cap in future seasons. ^
Whoa — how does that math work out? CARMELO thinks Leonard will generate 54.6 WAR over the life of his five-year deal, which would make his “fair salary” about $45 million per season (remember, the cap increases dramatically over that span). Since he’ll only make about $18 million a year, he projects to generate nearly $27 million in surplus value per season. ^
Beyond minimum salaries, that is. Throughout this article, I’m adjusting the money teams paid players to account for the fact that the monetary equivalent of “wins above replacement” is “salary above the minimum.” This is because a team should expect a minimum-salary player to produce, by definition, zero WAR. ^
Of those that were signed in 2006 or later and have finished since then. ^
Namely, Real Plus-Minus, Box Plus/Minus, Win Shares and Player Efficiency Rating. ^
We spent a long time backronym-ing this in the office. What we came up with: “Career Arc Regression Model Estimator (with) Local Optimization.” ^
Assuming the value of a non-cost-controlled win scales upward with the cap in future seasons. ^
Whoa — how does that math work out? CARMELO thinks Leonard will generate 54.6 WAR over the life of his five-year deal, which would make his “fair salary” about $45 million per season (remember, the cap increases dramatically over that span). Since he’ll only make about $18 million a year, he projects to generate nearly $27 million in surplus value per season. ^
Posted on 7/21/15 at 7:56 am to LosLobos111
quote:
Beyond minimum salaries, that is. Throughout this article, I’m adjusting the money teams paid players to account for the fact that the monetary equivalent of “wins above replacement” is “salary above the minimum.” This is because a team should expect a minimum-salary player to produce, by definition, zero WAR. ^
Of those that were signed in 2006 or later and have finished since then. ^
Namely, Real Plus-Minus, Box Plus/Minus, Win Shares and Player Efficiency Rating. ^
We spent a long time backronym-ing this in the office. What we came up with: “Career Arc Regression Model Estimator (with) Local Optimization.” ^
Assuming the value of a non-cost-controlled win scales upward with the cap in future seasons. ^
Whoa — how does that math work out? CARMELO thinks Leonard will generate 54.6 WAR over the life of his five-year deal, which would make his “fair salary” about $45 million per season (remember, the cap increases dramatically over that span). Since he’ll only make about $18 million a year, he projects to generate nearly $27 million in surplus value per season. ^
That sounds hokey as frick.
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