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re: Davis or bust!!

Posted on 2/28/12 at 1:50 pm to
Posted by drake20
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2005
13123 posts
Posted on 2/28/12 at 1:50 pm to
quote:

his role in Calipari's offense has actually limited him.


ya, i agree completely with this...he is putting up incredible numbers with that very limited role. Hopefully we will be able to see him do some more taking over in the tournament
Posted by SoFresh
New Orleans
Member since May 2010
3068 posts
Posted on 2/28/12 at 2:24 pm to
Worst- 15.38%
2nd Worst- 19.23%
3rd Worst- 19.23%
4th worst- 3.85%
5th worst- 19.23%
6th worst- 11.54%
Other- 11.54%

Based on Jester's provided data of the last 26 NBA drafts, this is the pure data. The data is not exactly adjusted correctly because back in the 80s and 90s the worst record did not get a 25% chance, the got a lower chance. Like in 1988 the Clippers had the worst record but instead of 25%, they only had 14.29%. So the data is a little skewed against the worst record.

When I think about the draft lottery, I see it like playing roulette at a casino. You can't look at past results if they have no effect on future results. Just because the worst record doesn't always get the first overall pick doesn't make that chance less likely. Thats why my philosophy is to tank. We have a rare opportunity to increase our chances of getting the best possible player to help our franchise in the future and take us to levels we have never been before. I'll gladly sacrifice wins in a down year for a better chance at getting a ring in the future, a more stable and profitable franchise, and being more attractive to FAs.

Here is the LINK to the wiki page about the draft. It has a chart that shows how the current lottery works. It shows that the team with the worst record may have a 25% chance of getting the 1st overall pick, but they cannot do any worse than 4th overall.
That is a plus of having the worst record, there is no chance we end up with worse than the 4th pick and I would be happy with whoever we got no matter what 3 players are already off the board.

Some of you may disagree, but from a strictly long-term business perspective, tanking looks to be our best option. It sucks and I always hate seeing the Hornets lose, but I want to see them win in the future so much more.
Posted by drake20
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2005
13123 posts
Posted on 2/28/12 at 2:31 pm to
quote:

I'll gladly sacrifice wins in a down year for a better chance at getting a ring in the future, a more stable and profitable franchise, and being more attractive to FAs.


agreed...in this season, the alternative is not playoffs. It is still being a crap team. Sucking for 4 more weeks is more valuable than worthless wins.

The players and Monty won't quit, but my guess is that we will see a lot more minor injuries sidelining players for a very long time "to be safe"
Posted by SoFresh
New Orleans
Member since May 2010
3068 posts
Posted on 2/28/12 at 2:43 pm to
quote:

Sucking for 4 more weeks is more valuable than worthless wins.


I wouldn't necessarily call them "worthless wins" because they do bring entertainment to Hornets fans and when I am watching a game I do enjoy when they win because I like the players, so they do mean something. But a loss is more valuable at this stage than a win.

quote:

The players and Monty won't quit, but my guess is that we will see a lot more minor injuries sidelining players for a very long time "to be safe"


The sidelining players I hope will happen soon.
I wouldn't mind EG sitting out the rest of the season because it will make sure he is rested and recovered for next season and not risk re-injury. Also it decreases his market value the longer he sits out and is not playing meaning we can resign him for less. As well as giving the younger players like Henry more minutes to develop, and it makes us a worse team without his contribution so we generate more losses.
This post was edited on 2/28/12 at 2:49 pm
Posted by drake20
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2005
13123 posts
Posted on 2/28/12 at 3:39 pm to
quote:

I wouldn't necessarily call them "worthless wins" because they do bring entertainment to Hornets fans and when I am watching a game I do enjoy when they win


you are right...less meaningful wins is better.

quote:

I wouldn't mind EG sitting out the rest of the season because it will make sure he is rested and recovered for next season and not risk re-injury.


ya. I kind of expect this to happen
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