What's the correlation between draft position and making it to the major leagues?

19 of the 50 guys in the AS game last year were 1st Rd pics

Well the pool is enormous. So it's probably more miss than hit...at least used to be that way. Maybe clubs play it safe with college guys more now, idk.

Every high school kid; college kid; post-college kid, etc.

NFL has it easy. Can't even process how MLB deals with measuring so many prospects at varying ages and stages in development.

Basically you have a much better shot at making to the majors if you are an early round guy. That chance is still small. I remember reading something that rounds 1-5 made up over Half the players in MLB compared to rounds 6-40

First Round and Compensation picks from 2000-2009

2000 Draft
-3 All Stars(Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Utley, Adam Wainwright)
-Other names(Rocco Baldelli, Sean Burnett, Dustin McGowan, Kelly Johnson)

2001 Draft
-Joe Mauer, Mark Prior, Mark Teixeria, David Wright
-Gavin Floyd, Chri Burke, Casey Kotchman, Jeff Mathis

2002 Draft
-Zack Greinke, Prince Fielder, Joe Saunders, Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain
-BJ Upton, Jeff Francis, Khalil Greene, James Loney, Denard Span, Jeremy Guthrie, Jeff Franceur, Joe Blanton

2003 Draft
-Rickie Weeks, Aaron Hill, Chad Cordero, Chad Billingsley, Carlos Quentin, Adam Jones
-Delmon Young, Nick Markakis, Paul Maholm, Jon Danks, Ian Stewart, Jarrod Saltalamacchia

2004 Draft
-Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, Billy Butler, Glen Perkins, Phil Hughes, Gio Gonzalez, Huston Street
-Matt Bush, Jeff Niemann, Homer Bailey, Neil Walker, Stephen Drew, Trevor Plouffe

2005 Draft
-Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Ricky Romero, Troy Tulowitzki, Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce, Jacoby Ellsbury, clay Buchholz
-Mike Pelfrey, Cameron Maybin, Chris Volstad, Cliff Pennington, Matt Garza, Colby Rasmus, Jed Lowrie

2006 Draft
-Evan Longoria, Andrew Miller, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Max Scherzer, Chris Perez
-Luke Hichevar, Drew Stubbs, Travis Snider, Kyle Drabek, Ian Kennedy, Hank Conger, Chris Coghlan, Job Chamberlain

2007 Draft
-David Price, Mike Moustakas, Matt Wieters, Madison Bumgarner, Jason Heyward, Devin Mesoraco, Todd Frazier, Josh Donaldson
-Ross Detwiler, Peter Kozma, JP Arencibia, Rick Porcello, Travid d'Arnaud

2008 Draft
-Pedro Alvarez, Eric Hosmer, Buster Posey, Jason Castro, Lance Lynn, Wade Miley
-Tim Beckman, Brian Matusz, Yonder Alonso, Gordon Beckham, Justin Smoak, Aaron Hicks, Brett Lawrie, Ike Davis, Josh Fields, Lonnie Chisenhall, Mike Montgomery

2009 Draft
-Stephen Strasburg, Aaron Crow, AJ Pollock, Shelby Miller, Mike Trout, Brad Boxburger
-Zack Wheeler, Mike Minor, Mike Leake, Dew Storen, Randal Grichuk, Tyler Skaggs, Garrett Richards, Tanner Scheppers

#1 Picks
All Stars-Adrian Gonzalez, Joe Mauer, Justin Upton, David Price, Stephen Strasburg
Major League-Delmon Young, Matt Bush, Luke Hochevar, Tim Beckham
Bust-Bryan Bullington

Top 5 Picks in those years
36% all stars
56% at least descent MLB careers
44% busts

quote:

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Mark Prior

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He was just ridiculous. Such a shame how injuries derailed his career. Probably the best young pitcher I can remember until Kershaw came along.

I still vividly remember his 2003 duel with Maddux in the playoffs.