Weekly PGA Thread - Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort

Rory, Rory, Rory...

I've played this course. Snakepit is a fricking motherfricker.

Look for the winner to be someone with a good track record of success at: Colonial CC and Sea Pines Heritage Classic. Definitely a ball strikers course.

Kuchar, Z Johnson, D Toms, Speith, B Weekley

Looks like McDowell and Dufner could be set for nice tourneys. Both feeling good amongst a weaker field.

I remember watching McDowell and Dubuisson playing together one day and thought that'd be a great pair to play along with. I've had the opportunity to play a round at English Turn with George McNeill and he was really laid back. Gave some insight on liked and disliked pros on the tour. Evidently Keegan Bradley is the worst, ha.

quote:

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McDowell is one of my favorites. He seems like such an awesome guy.

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He seems like the guy that will talk to ya at the bar for hours and getting a great buzz on....

Four tourney matchups this week...

Willett +170 ov Spieth

Danny Willett has quietly become a player with all the tools and the ability to notch a top 5 finish in every event he enters. He now has a win and a 3rd place WGC finish early in the year. His form and iron play should suit the Copperhead layout perfectly, while his putting is truly world-class. While Spieth's course history and talent are undeniable, they also cause him to be overvalued in this spot. So far this year, Spieth is well outside the top 100 in proximity to hole and his putting hasn't had the magic it had last year. The odds are simply off on this matchup.

Thomas -115 ov Oosthuizen

After a slow start to the season, Thomas is starting to show the form that raised eyebrows last year. A strong showing at Doral was disguised by a large number on a few holes. Thomas was 9th in putting strokes gained at Doral and has the high-apex, precision iron play necessary for this course as evidenced by his 10th place finish last year. Oosthuizen has abused the field in some watered down tourneys this year an is undoubtedly in good form early in the season, but has now missed the cut in this event 3 years in a row. Something about this layout doesn't fit his eye and he's admitted as much previously.

English EV ov Kuchar

English has a top 10 finish in 2 of his last 3 events and 2 of his last 3 Valspar entries. It's always a good sign when course and current form are aligned. 7 of his 14 rounds on this course have been in the 60s. Kuchar is a steady performer but has finished outside the top 30 each of the last two years and has had a largely unimpressive season to date. Kuchar as a fan favorite tends to generate some line value on its own as it does with Spieth, Phil and others.

Dufner -130 ov Grace

Dufner has finished in the top 30 of this event 7 years running and is coming of a strong showing at Doral and a win earlier this year. With a bit better putting Dufner would likely have claimed this trophy previously. Grace on the other hand has only played here once (2014) and missed the cut. Grace is an elite talent with several strong showings this year but his form has slipped a bit and his introduction to US fans isn't going as planned.

Leggo!

Willet 22nd or better
Dufner 32nd or better
Reavie over Poulter Rd 1
Kizzire over Barber Rd 1

What odds are you getting on those "or better" plays? My book doesn't offer that option.

Spieth starts the day bogey bogey.