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The Bye Week Advantage in College Football
Posted on 10/25/16 at 5:36 am
Posted on 10/25/16 at 5:36 am
How should having a "bye week advantage" (that is, not playing a game while your upcoming opponent plays a scheduled game for the week) factor into point spreads?
I noticed this past Saturday there were three very surprising results: Penn State's upset of Ohio State, SMU's shocking upset of Houston, and Auburn's 56-3 shellacking of Arkansas. In each game, the winning team had such a "bye week advantage".
Should the BWA factor into betting lines?
I noticed this past Saturday there were three very surprising results: Penn State's upset of Ohio State, SMU's shocking upset of Houston, and Auburn's 56-3 shellacking of Arkansas. In each game, the winning team had such a "bye week advantage".
Should the BWA factor into betting lines?
This post was edited on 10/25/16 at 5:45 am
6
Posted on 10/25/16 at 5:42 am to tarzana
Wtf
Posted on 10/25/16 at 5:47 am to tarzana
Ohhhhh, that's what a bye week is.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 6:26 am to Chadaristic
Look at what I posted. I specifically said BYE WEEK ADVANTAGE, not bye week. HUGE DIFFERENCE.
For instance, LSU and Alabama each have a bye week on Oct. 29. So there's no advantage when they face each other Nov. 5.
For instance, LSU and Alabama each have a bye week on Oct. 29. So there's no advantage when they face each other Nov. 5.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 6:38 am to tarzana
quote:
How should having a "bye week advantage" (that is, not playing a game while your upcoming opponent plays a scheduled game for the week) factor into point spreads?
I noticed this past Saturday there were three very surprising results: Penn State's upset of Ohio State, SMU's shocking upset of Houston, and Auburn's 56-3 shellacking of Arkansas. In each game, the winning team had such a "bye week advantage".
Should the BWA factor into betting lines?
Good post. Really.
I'm sure the vegas guys give a point or 2 consideration for this difference. I did not know all three of those had your so called BWA.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 6:39 am to BUGAtGOAT
This makes Joe Aleva's comment "If Alabama has a bye week before our game we will too!" all the better. Some thought he came off as "scared" of big bad Bama.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 7:16 am to tarzana
quote:It's already factored in
Should the BWA factor into betting lines?
Posted on 10/25/16 at 7:25 am to BUGAtGOAT
(no message)
This post was edited on 4/11/23 at 3:17 am
Posted on 10/25/16 at 7:29 am to castorinho
quote:
Should the BWA factor into betting lines?
It's already factored in
This. I'm not sure if the OP is asking how much Vegas weighs it or if the OP is suggesting he's found some betting advantage that Vegas didn't consider.
FWIW, in the NFL, the bye week is most important for the most talented and best coached teams. The better the team/staff, the more valuable the bye week becomes in handicapping the game.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 7:44 am to slackster
quote:
This. I'm not sure if the OP is asking how much Vegas weighs it or if the OP is suggesting he's found some betting advantage that Vegas didn't consider.
Vegas considers everything but they can only incorporate so many variables into their formula. This might be a built-in variable, or it might be one they decided to exclude.
I'm sure someone out there has crunched the numbers. I'd also be interested in seeing if Penn State has a letdown next week.
The way to beat the book long term is to find a subset of games where the results go against the grain, and then bet all of those games and only those games. So if teams coming off a bye win 55% or 60% ATS, ride that trend for all it's worth.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 7:52 am to slackster
Yeah it's pretty big in the NFL. Teams coming off a bye since 2010 have a ~0.550 record, doesn't seem like a lot but it is. In that same span those teams are right around 0.500 ATS. I'm talking one or two games difference in the ATS.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 8:14 am to tarzana
Not just that, OSU had just come off playing a prime time game against another team with a BWA. OSU got one less day of practice as they usually have a team meeting Sunday but didn't after getting back from Madison at 5 am.
Penn State was my biggest worry game, not from a talent standpoint, but from being the 2nd end of the back to back coming off bye week type games primetime letdown games.
Penn State was my biggest worry game, not from a talent standpoint, but from being the 2nd end of the back to back coming off bye week type games primetime letdown games.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 8:32 am to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
The way to beat the book long term is to find a subset of games where the results go against the grain, and then bet all of those games and only those games. So if teams coming off a bye win 55% or 60% ATS, ride that trend for all it's worth.
True, but the problem is that the sports betting market is incredibly efficient, and more so every year. Looking back on historical trends ATS is great if you're the first guy to find it, but once Vegas does it is usually over in a hurry.
From 2007-2010, where only one team is coming off of a bye, that team is 61-44-5 ATS. From 2011-present, teams coming off a bye (not necessarily the only team in the game coming off of a bye though) are 89-95-4 ATS. Not exactly apples to apples, but you get the idea.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 9:21 am to silverstreak02
quote:
Funny you should ask...Team Speed Kills a couple years ago and the results were a bit surprising.
Nice article, but it only discusses the actual wins/losses, not ATS, which is what I believe the OP was referencing when he mentioned Vegas.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 9:30 am to Buckeye06
Bye weeks or that week every year when most in the SEC play their bought for scrimmages.
At least they mostly all play the Citadels of the world at the same time for 2-3 weeks in a row together.
It sucks when a team plays a tough SEC opponent and then has to play Alabama after Bama played Tennessee Valley Community College.
Point is...there are many Byes in a season, some SEC teams have 4. 3 rent a wins and a bye.
Some Big10 teams have 5...because Indiana, Rutgers and Illinois.
There's always going to be the case where someone played nobody the week before and the opponent is at a disadvantage.
You could have played Auburn and your opponent had played Gulf Coast Guard Auxiliary Jr. College.
At least they mostly all play the Citadels of the world at the same time for 2-3 weeks in a row together.
It sucks when a team plays a tough SEC opponent and then has to play Alabama after Bama played Tennessee Valley Community College.
Point is...there are many Byes in a season, some SEC teams have 4. 3 rent a wins and a bye.
Some Big10 teams have 5...because Indiana, Rutgers and Illinois.
There's always going to be the case where someone played nobody the week before and the opponent is at a disadvantage.
You could have played Auburn and your opponent had played Gulf Coast Guard Auxiliary Jr. College.
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