Ranking the best and worst drafting teams in Round 1

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1. Carolina Panthers

Surplus AV per pick: Plus-11.5
Biggest hit: Cam Newton (No. 1, 2011 draft)
Biggest miss: Jeff Otah (No. 19, 2008 draft)

Carolina is in a league of its own when it comes to first-round success over the last 10 seasons. Three of the top 10 first-round picks in terms of surplus AV in the past decade -- Newton, Luke Kuechly and Jon Beason -- were selected by the Panthers in a six-year span. Newton's performance in particular is impressive given the massive expectations heaped upon the No. 1 overall pick.


2. Houston Texans

Surplus AV per pick: Plus-7.7
Biggest hit: J.J. Watt (No. 11, 2011 draft)
Biggest miss: Jadeveon Clowney (No. 1, 2014 draft)

Based on this methodology, Watt has been the most valuable first-round pick in the last 25 seasons. He produced 42 AV above expectations in his first four seasons, and no player in NFL history has more AV through five seasons than Watt. Although Clowney is listed as the biggest miss, it's too early to call him a bust after 17 games played in two seasons.


3. Baltimore Ravens

Surplus AV per pick: Plus-6.8
Biggest hit: Joe Flacco (No. 18, 2008 draft)
Biggest miss: Jimmy Smith (No. 27, 2011 draft)

Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome has drafted 11 Pro Bowlers in the first round since 1996, including C.J. Mosley, Ben Grubbs and Haloti Ngata in the last 10 seasons. Ultimately, Flacco's ability to lead Baltimore to the playoffs in each of his first four seasons as a starter made him the Ravens' best value pick.


4. New England Patriots

Surplus AV per pick: Plus-6.4
Biggest hit: Nate Solder (No. 17, 2011 draft)
Biggest miss: Dominique Easley (No. 29, 2014 draft)

The Patriots do not have a first-round pick this season, which might be good news for the rest of the league. The only Patriots first-rounder in the last decade who did not meet or exceed draft slot expectations was Easley, whom the team cut this offseason. Solder, Chandler Jones, Devin McCourty and Jerod Mayo are all recent first-round picks who contributed to New England's consistent success in the last 10 seasons.

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7. Atlanta Falcons

Surplus AV per pick: Plus-3.5
Biggest hit: Matt Ryan (No. 3, 2008 draft)
Biggest miss: Peria Jerry (No. 24, 2009 draft)

The Falcons gave up a lot to draft Julio Jones No. 6 overall in the 2011 draft, but Jones has exceeded the already-lofty expectations of a top pick. Recent drafts have also been effective with Atlanta's last three first-round picks -- Vic Beasley Jr. (2015), Jake Matthews (2014), Desmond Trufant (2013) -- each starting at least 15 games in their rookie seasons.

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14. New Orleans Saints

Surplus AV per pick: Plus-1.2
Biggest hit: Cameron Jordan (No. 24, 2011 draft)
Biggest miss: Patrick Robinson (No. 32, 2010 draft)

Despite drafting few superstars, the Saints have found consistent starters late in the first round. New Orleans' top picks have come at the skill positions (Reggie Bush, Brandin Cooks and Robert Meachem), whereas their three worst picks came on the defensive side of the ball. The results on the field mimic that draft trend; the Saints had the second-most efficient offense and least efficient defense in the NFL last season.

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16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Surplus AV per pick: Plus-1.1
Biggest hit: Josh Freeman (No. 17, 2009 draft)
Biggest miss: Adrian Clayborn (No. 20, 2011 draft)

With his first two first-round picks as Bucs GM, Jason Licht selected Mike Evans in 2014 and Jameis Winston in 2015. That's not a bad start to his tenure. Now, Licht and newly-hired coach Dirk Koetter must build on their success in 2015 and find first-round value on the defensive side of the ball.

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