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re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB Betting Thread - dcrews taking us to the promised land

Posted on 10/8/14 at 2:16 pm to
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25289 posts
Posted on 10/8/14 at 2:16 pm to
quote:

Does anyone know anything about Uconn they are a 3.5 pt dog to Tulane? Im not sure Tulane should be favored over anyone right now.


UCONN has a bottom 10 offense in yards per play. They have a plodding offense that tries to control the clock (Iowa esque).

Their defense is pretty good tho. I would lean under the total if it's near 50 or so.
Posted by Sader1990
Metairie
Member since Jun 2013
1095 posts
Posted on 10/8/14 at 2:22 pm to
Thanks. I will keep the under on my radar for the weekend. It is at 45.5 right now on my book. I know Tanner Lee is still banged up and they were talking on the news about maybe Nick Montana starting.
Posted by PurpleAndGold86
Member since Jun 2012
11036 posts
Posted on 10/8/14 at 3:13 pm to
quote:

Plus Peej gave LSU the KOD last night

Ah damnit,

Posted by PurpleAndGold86
Member since Jun 2012
11036 posts
Posted on 10/8/14 at 3:15 pm to
quote:

Entirely too much thread space for a game that is equivalent to calling heads or tails.


Isn't that like kind of the exact point of this thread? Or is there a limit on the number of comments for one game?

And I guess you could pretty much say any game is a coin toss. If they weren't you would probably be pretty wealthy.
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25289 posts
Posted on 10/8/14 at 3:27 pm to
I was kind of messing around - the game is so weird and both teams have proven to be so inconsistent I can't find any compelling angles or good reasons to support either side. If anyone else feels strongly about it, more power to ya

I do like the under tho.
This post was edited on 10/8/14 at 3:29 pm
Posted by PurpleAndGold86
Member since Jun 2012
11036 posts
Posted on 10/8/14 at 3:29 pm to
quote:

I do like the under tho.


I agree 100%. This is the one and only thing I like about the game.
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41819 posts
Posted on 10/9/14 at 8:10 am to
YTD: 12-10-2; +2*

backing UCF tonight
1* UCF -3

1* TCU +10½
2* USC -2½
Posted by ChemE in the OP
The Flats
Member since Apr 2011
6382 posts
Posted on 10/9/14 at 8:37 am to
FULL CARD WEEKEND

[110] UNLV +10-105
210 / 200

[111] TEXAS +14½-110
220 / 200

[154] MISSISSIPPI STATE +130
200 / 260

[159] ALABAMA -10-110
220 / 200

[161] LSU -125
250 / 200

[187] MISSISSIPPI +120
200 / 240

Posted by TOKEN
Member since Feb 2014
11990 posts
Posted on 10/9/14 at 8:39 am to
YTD: 13-4-0. + 9

1. UCF -3

2. Georgia -3
3. Arkansas +10.5
Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
17682 posts
Posted on 10/9/14 at 8:58 am to
quote:

[159] ALABAMA -10-110

I like this one. I have a feeling Saban is $$ following a loss.
Posted by Louie T
htx
Member since Dec 2006
36321 posts
Posted on 10/9/14 at 9:01 am to
Saban is 3-10 ATS at Bama after a regular season loss.
Posted by josh336
baton rouge
Member since Jan 2007
77712 posts
Posted on 10/9/14 at 9:04 am to
Im on all those except ole miss, im on a&m
This post was edited on 10/9/14 at 9:05 am
Posted by ChemE in the OP
The Flats
Member since Apr 2011
6382 posts
Posted on 10/9/14 at 9:21 am to
Arkansas has one of the highest between the tackle run percentages and overall run/pass ratio in NCAAF. This is one of the few times I've made a stylistic matchup play, normally a numbers guy.

We shall see.
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25289 posts
Posted on 10/9/14 at 9:43 am to
quote:

I have a feeling Saban is $$ following a loss.


Saban is actually 3-10 ATS @ Alabama following a loss

Personally, I would only play Bama in this spot tho.
Posted by Louie T
htx
Member since Dec 2006
36321 posts
Posted on 10/9/14 at 9:47 am to
Arkansas isn't the type of team Bama generally struggles with. I may find a way to get that game on the card in some facet.
Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
17682 posts
Posted on 10/9/14 at 9:49 am to
quote:

Saban is actually 3-10 ATS @ Alabama following a loss


Interesting. But I think Alabama matches up well against Arkansas' style. I don't see Arkansas moving the ball very well at all. Perhaps under is the play?
Posted by maclauer
Member since Nov 2011
4765 posts
Posted on 10/9/14 at 9:57 am to
quote:

This is one of the few times I've made a stylistic matchup play, normally a numbers guy.

What led you to backing LSU? Not knocking the pick, just curious since road fav getting public money doesn't fit your usual style.
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25289 posts
Posted on 10/9/14 at 10:07 am to
Bama's injuries concern me a bit. Kenyan Drake is obviously an explosive stretch piece that they are missing. Their center Ryan Kelly is out for this game too. I think Eddie Jackson is back which should boost their secondary.

The matchup looks good on paper for Bama. Arky can't throw and expose the Bama defensive backfield. Bama should find a lot of running room on an average Arky front 7. The Hogs have no one that can contain Cooper or even slow him down.

Blake Sims is still a bit unproven for me to lay double digits on the road with him - his WRs let him down to a certain extent last week tho. This is their 2nd physical game on the road in a row and it's a long road trip. Arky coming off a bye so they should be fresh.

I do like the under a bit (56 currently), but 57 is one of the most key numbers when it comes to totals. If it gets to 57.5 I would take a bite maybe.
Posted by ChemE in the OP
The Flats
Member since Apr 2011
6382 posts
Posted on 10/9/14 at 10:08 am to
quote:

What led you to backing LSU? Not knocking the pick, just curious since road fav getting public money doesn't fit your usual style.


I had this at LSU -6.5 preseason and believe that a move all the way to ML -125 is too much of an adjustment. There's a good chance Miss St and Auburn both finish top 10. FLA schedule so far is much weaker.

Rare chance to buy low on the Tigers. I've been betting against them all year and we're finally seeing value on the other side I think.
Posted by Zipfer2022
Member since Nov 2011
3736 posts
Posted on 10/9/14 at 10:34 am to
On UCF -2(-115) tonight. Line is dropping. I get the sharp BYU love, because usually teams that lose their leader rally. Not buying it.

I'm a fan of Holman. He's not spectacular, but is pretty solid. Short week for BYU with long travel after having their dreams crushed. Hill's backup looked like muffcabbage last week. UCF isn't blowing anyone out, but they pick up a W here.
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