re: nothing big happened tonight, except that coaching intellect is at all time low

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If I get a chance today, I'll run the numbers on that decision using empirical data just to get a general idea.

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NCAA 2PT Conversion average is 41% the last 5 years. PAT conversion average is 96.5%. PAT is chosen over 2PT conversion 96% of the time.

To spare you all of the math, going for 2 results in a win if you make it, if you miss it and they go for 2 and miss it, if you miss it and they miss the XP, and if you miss it, they make the XP, and you win in OT anyway - a grand total of 75% of the time.

Going for the XP results in a win if you make it and they fail to make the 2pt conversion, if you make it, they make the 2pt conversion and you win in OT anyway, if you miss it and they go for 2 and miss it, or if you miss it and they miss the XP too - 79% of the time.

Using those numbers, going for 2 is the wrong call on average, but it is much closer than most would imagine and depending on your offense, defense, home team, etc., it wouldn't take much to swing the outcomes in the favor of going for 2.

For example, in the NFL since 2000, teams down by 7 with 3:30 left won 6.7% of the time. Teams down by 8 won 6.1% of the time. Teams trailing by 9 or more have never won. If you use the same success rates on 2PTA and XPs from above, kicking the XP (making it and going up by 8 or missing it and going up by 7) would still result in a win 93% of the time. Going for 2PT (making it and going up by 9 or missing and staying up by 7) would result in a win 96% of the time.

It is a controversial decision, but it is mathematically sound, or at least close enough.