re: NBA/NCAA Betting Thread

Can't believe it. 24 pts, biggest comeback in the NBA his season

quote:

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UTEP +3 1H W
Celtics +1.5 W
Jazz/Mavs o193.5 W

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3-0 Basketball
2-0 Hockey

5-0 on the night. Feels good.

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NCAA

Winthrop +6 (added late)
Belmont -3.5
Rice -5
UNC +3
St Peters -1
Middle Tennessee -7.5
Charleston -7 (added late)
SMU -6.5
St Mary -23.5
San Francisco -4.5
Hawaii 4.5


NBA

Houston -3
Oklahoma -11
Utah O 193
Boston O 219

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Weeks Record 37-17

NCAA

Winthrop +6 (added late) - WIN
Belmont -3.5 - WIN
Rice -5 WIN
UNC +3 LOSS
St Peters -1 WIN
Middle Tennessee -7.5 WIN
Charleston -7 (added late) - LOSS
SMU -6.5 WIN
St Mary -23.5 LOSS
San Francisco -4.5 ROBBED!!!
Hawaii 4.5 WIN

NCAA 7-4 Today


NBA

Houston -3 WIN
Oklahoma -11 - ROBBED!!!
Utah O 193 - WIN
Boston O 219 - WIN

NBA 3-1 Today

This Week 37-17

NCAA
Dayton +3
Akron -1
Harvard -5

NBA
Pacers O 219
Pelicans O 214
Kings O 208.5

NHL
Minnesota ML
Winnipeg ML

Ah I see. I get most of my basketball bets fed to me. Then I'll do a little research and decide whether or not to take them... probably not the best strategy.

I'm looking at Suns +13.5.

Rockets have been very up and down, and had a solid win yesterday (that I took to cover).

Probably due for a close win against a shitty team. Especially if Gordon is still out.

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Sorry for the novel. just what i look for. not perfect, but helps me personally justify a pick rather than pulling something out of my arse.

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The thing is, while I suppose it's a good first step, its such an elementary way of going about it. If it were only as easy as comparing unadjusted season long stats, many people would profit betting on sports

Oddsmakers have a team full of skilled mathematicians and modelers to set their lines, which are sharpened by the market. Their lines are set by much more complicated methods than just comparing season long unadjusted stats - so such a system stands no chance.

Ultimately you have to find a way to convert those stats into meaningful percentages. Hence what my model aims to do - it takes raw stats game by game, converts them to advanced stats, double adjusts for opponent and location, larger weights for more recent games, and then simulates the game 1000 times using my simulator to find the mean - which the 1000 simulations can be used to calculate cover %, over/under %, and win %.

As complex as my system is, it's been getting its arse handed to it since a hot 6 day run a couple weeks ago. It has now produced 13 Straight losing nights. The past week I even analyzed all the outputs so far and used those outputs to be more selective - for example when my system says a game has a 55.1% chance of going over it is 20-7 for +1150 units - and that even isn't working. That number was 19-2 on Monday and now it's 20-7. 1-5 since I found that angle.

Ultimately I don't think my system is as bad as it has been lately - it's still +EV for the season - but it's gone from +40 units 2 weeks ago to now +2.4 units. Lost 37.6 units in 2 weeks. Numbers can only get you so far - variance will occur - so then what? Maybe the NBA isn't the best sport to model for. It's the easiest one for sure, but too many egos and too many players don't give 100% effort every game.

There are probably winning edges and angles to beat the NBA market, but my approach of calculating expectancies and means, shows what should happen on paper - but it's just that, paper

Eh. You can create super complex or basic models. It just depends on what you're trying to do. Just because Vegas may use extremely complex models doesn't mean you can't win with simple models. And modeling shouldn't be the only reason you make a bet (IMO).

I honestly think injuries/DNP are pretty damn overrated

Betting a few Ivy League games tonight for some entertainment.