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re: Large Number of Bets on LSU games
Posted on 10/12/11 at 9:59 pm to dunkelman
Posted on 10/12/11 at 9:59 pm to dunkelman
Tons of value on UT right now. I never bet against LSU or Saints tho.
Love the Cowboys this week that's my 3rd or 4th largest play of the year.
Love the Cowboys this week that's my 3rd or 4th largest play of the year.
This post was edited on 10/12/11 at 10:00 pm
2
Posted on 10/12/11 at 10:47 pm to KBeezy
When 98% of the $$$ gets on one side of a game, that when someone in Vegas might just get a fix on the game. Say a few holding calls, etc. Wouldn't effect the W-L except on the line. The favorite wins, but doesn't cover. Not saying its going to happen, but it makes you wonder if funny shite happens.
Posted on 10/12/11 at 10:48 pm to AlejandroInHouston
quote:
Tons of value on UT right now. I never bet against LSU or Saints tho.
I know it's tough, but you should really change this line of thinking.
Those are the two teams you know the most about.
Posted on 10/13/11 at 2:10 am to KosmoCramer
quote:
Someone should start a thread on the SEC rant about it.
Posted on 10/13/11 at 2:41 am to AlejandroInHouston
quote:
I never bet against LSU or Saints tho.
understandable... but with LSU or the Saints, i don't want to be in a situation where they lose and i lose, even if it means they win and i win
Posted on 10/13/11 at 3:01 am to dunkelman
quote:
Interesting that we're the biggest act on the strip and getting all the love.
Really? This is some Revelation? As long as I've been a degenerate CFB gambler (since 2004) the action is always heavy on the top team(s) in the land; coupled with the media heavy saturation of the casual fan that the SEC is so much better than everyone else...if you weren't bet heavy against WVU...then people didn't like your team personally. It's always the top teams...USC was bet like crazy during their run which is why the lines always went up during the week. People throw money at what ESPN tells them. The majority of the bettors probably don't even know who your QB(s) is right now.
Posted on 10/13/11 at 5:25 am to Zamoro10
Well, I figure Tennessee is good for anywhere between 3 and 7 points so depending on how much you think LSU will score knock yourselves out.
The lines are a function of trying to get the money on both sides even so any goofiness in them is goofiness in the betting public. Really extreme goofiness starts you wondering if somebody knows something. Isn't Tennessee's QB not playing? That coule lead virtually everybody to conclude they aren't going to score any. That means TN can't pass at all against LSU's D, so LSU can sellout on the run, so TN ain't scoring.
The lines are a function of trying to get the money on both sides even so any goofiness in them is goofiness in the betting public. Really extreme goofiness starts you wondering if somebody knows something. Isn't Tennessee's QB not playing? That coule lead virtually everybody to conclude they aren't going to score any. That means TN can't pass at all against LSU's D, so LSU can sellout on the run, so TN ain't scoring.
Posted on 10/13/11 at 6:20 am to dunkelman
The line is now at 17.5 and the value is certainly on Tennessee right now. Up by 3TDs or 24 points and give up a meaningless TD late. Would not bet on Tennessee though, but wouldn't touch LSU at this line right now either.
14 pts and under was certainly a gift.
14 pts and under was certainly a gift.
Posted on 10/13/11 at 6:37 am to castorinho
I wouldn't put too much stock in those sites. First of all, who cares how many people bet on a particular team. Second of all, these sites would be worth looking over if they told you where the big money bets were going, but of course they wouldn't do that.
Posted on 10/13/11 at 6:40 am to Bravescd14
quote:
Second of all, these sites would be worth looking over if they told you where the big money bets were going, but of course they wouldn't do that.
It's not rocket science
, it's pretty easy to figure out where the "smart" money is. Posted on 10/13/11 at 6:44 am to castorinho
And just how do you do that?
Posted on 10/13/11 at 7:02 am to Bravescd14
Of course big line movements would be an indicator, which I guess would be helpful until you realize you have lost a decent percentage in value after the line has moved. Even knowing where the sharps money is at probably won't be of too much use unless you need help pulling the trigger. Either way, I still hold firm that these sites are completely useless. It's not that the public loses a majority of times (try using that site and betting against 80%+ public betting and see how far you get), but the public loses simply because of the vig and poor money management.
Posted on 10/13/11 at 11:00 am to dunkelman
Posted on 10/13/11 at 11:21 am to dunkelman
quote:
When 98% of the $$$ gets on one side of a game, that when someone in Vegas might just get a fix on the game. Say a few holding calls, etc. Wouldn't effect the W-L except on the line. The favorite wins, but doesn't cover. Not saying its going to happen, but it makes you wonder if funny shite happens.
I know how games can get fixed but the house doesn't have any money on the game
Its 2% of The betting public on TN and they move the line to balance the money
If it stays so whacked, the house stands to lose alot of money if LSU covers
Posted on 10/13/11 at 1:49 pm to KBeezy
Todd Fuhrman from Caesars was just on with SVP and he said people are betting the LSU game "like they already know the final score". He also said they haven't seen a run like this in Vegas in a long time. The top 10 teams (which the public loves to back) is something like 41-16-3 this year. Which for those of you who may not know, is bad bad bad for Vegas.
Posted on 10/13/11 at 2:01 pm to CWilken21
that is why i only do tease bets
i have lsu at -9.5 with bama at -19.5
even if the fix is in, i can still win.. started doing this for some time now with great success and it came from being paranoid about spreads and vegas fixing games
i have lsu at -9.5 with bama at -19.5
even if the fix is in, i can still win.. started doing this for some time now with great success and it came from being paranoid about spreads and vegas fixing games
Posted on 10/13/11 at 2:13 pm to CWilken21
quote:
The top 10 teams (which the public loves to back) is something like 41-16-3 this year. Which for those of you who may not know, is bad bad bad for Vegas.
Usually the preseason voters are a little off and the first 4-5 weeks of CFB are great for betting because some top team is a pretender.
This year the lines have been really low for the elite teams and they're all covering. Vegas didn't catch wind early enough that the public believed that it was Bama, LSU and OU and everybody else. The preseason poll was pretty spot on for the top teams.
This post was edited on 10/13/11 at 2:15 pm
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