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Down 14, less than 2 min left, scored a TD. Should you go for 2?
Posted on 1/22/16 at 4:00 pm
Posted on 1/22/16 at 4:00 pm
If you fail you can still go for 2 on the next TD. If you succeed, next TD + XP gives you the win instead of tie.
It has apparently been proved that the expected result is better when you factor in the chance of making the 2pt conversion(s). So it makes sense to go for 2 there, except, most coaches never do.
It has apparently been proved that the expected result is better when you factor in the chance of making the 2pt conversion(s). So it makes sense to go for 2 there, except, most coaches never do.
8
Posted on 1/22/16 at 4:02 pm to saintforlife
This is the exact same debate as going for 2 down 7 at the end of the game except you tacked on 7 extra points and added a stipulation.
Posted on 1/22/16 at 4:03 pm to saintforlife
While this is true, coaches play points conservatively and will do whatever it takes to extend the game as opposed to win. When down 15 points, all coaches tend to go for 1 on their first TD...to extend the game. Mathematically and probability speaking, they should always go for 2 first so they know how many points are needed.
Posted on 1/22/16 at 4:05 pm to rpg37
But if you don't get it the first time you essentially end the game with a nine point deficit
Posted on 1/22/16 at 4:08 pm to Glorious
quote:
But if you don't get it the first time you essentially end the game with a nine point deficit
Depends on how much time is left (assuming we're not under the 2 minute assumption as stated in the OP)
It gives you more information about how urgently you need to be moving on offense if there is more time left in the game
Posted on 1/22/16 at 4:10 pm to rpg37
quote:
Mathematically and probability speaking, they should always go for 2 first so they know how many points are needed.
well..except being down by 7 vs. 6 may actually make it more likely for the other team to play conservative and thus...allowing you a better opportunity to force a 3 and out.
There are so may factors specific to the individual game that override small percentage differences. Is the other team more fatigued than ours? Has the game been a shootout? Defensive struggle? Is their kicking game good? Is mine? How confident am I in my 2 pt play against this team? Etc. Etc. Etc.
Having said that, I do think coaches play the "extend the game" card too much.
Posted on 1/22/16 at 4:17 pm to saintforlife
If you don't "extend the game" as you call it, it gives you very little chance to win.
You're trying to put the game on the line way before it has to be put on the line. Always extend the game.
PAT is always the safer play than a 2PC. It's a situation that you'd willingly be putting yourself into when it's not necessary.
The way you're talking is the type of shite that gets coaches fired
You're trying to put the game on the line way before it has to be put on the line. Always extend the game.
PAT is always the safer play than a 2PC. It's a situation that you'd willingly be putting yourself into when it's not necessary.
The way you're talking is the type of shite that gets coaches fired
This post was edited on 1/22/16 at 4:18 pm
Posted on 1/22/16 at 4:19 pm to ShamelessPel
No its not the same as going for 2 down 7 at all. He added a stipulation because its completely different. Yes you should qbsolutly go for it.
Posted on 1/22/16 at 4:19 pm to saintforlife
It's not a guarantee that you get the onside kick. If you go for 2 and don't get it, then don't recover the onside kick, they can ice the game with a FG.
This post was edited on 1/22/16 at 4:21 pm
Posted on 1/22/16 at 4:24 pm to saintforlife
Also, there's not enough info to make an informed decision.
How many timeouts do I have?
Even if I were to go for it an not get it, if I've got all my timeouts, I'm kicking it deep and relying on my defense to get me the ball back.
How many timeouts do I have?
Even if I were to go for it an not get it, if I've got all my timeouts, I'm kicking it deep and relying on my defense to get me the ball back.
Posted on 1/22/16 at 4:29 pm to rpg37
quote:My man!!!
When down 15 points, all coaches tend to go for 1 on their first TD...to extend the game. Mathematically and probability speaking, they should always go for 2 first so they know how many points are needed.
Posted on 1/22/16 at 4:30 pm to Glorious
quote:And if you don't get it the 2nd time, the game is even more "essentially over"
But if you don't get it the first time you essentially end the game with a nine point deficit
Posted on 1/22/16 at 4:32 pm to TXGunslinger10
quote:Safer for the coach only
PAT is always the safer play than a 2PC
quote:Isn't winning the idea of the game?
It's a situation that you'd willingly be putting yourself into when it's not necessary.
quote:Feels like you're kind of admitting coaches don't do it simply because it'll get them fired, which is in essense, correct.
The way you're talking is the type of shite that gets coaches fired
Posted on 1/22/16 at 4:33 pm to shel311
Id rather have my hopes end with 1 second left than with 2 minutes left
This post was edited on 1/22/16 at 4:35 pm
Posted on 1/22/16 at 4:34 pm to Glorious
quote:You do realize that with 1 second left, your hopes actually end.
If rather have my hopes end with 1 second left than with 2 minutes left
And with 2 minutes left, you're still in it.
Posted on 1/22/16 at 4:34 pm to TXGunslinger10
It's easy to say at a 50% chance you are likely to make the second 2-pt conversion if you miss the first one. However, do you want to put yourself in a position where you need a 2-pt conversion to tie, when you could be kicking an XP instead?
If you can assume two TDs will be score without the other team scoring, it is the smarter choice to accept the possibility of a loss in OT than to risk losing because you forced yourself into 2-pt conversions.
Posted on 1/22/16 at 4:36 pm to lsufan251875
quote:That's really not the idea, at all.
you are likely to make the second 2-pt conversion if you miss the first one
quote:Do you want to put yourself in a position where the 2nd TD's extra point gives you the win in almost half of the instances?
However, do you want to put yourself in a position where you need a 2-pt conversion to tie, when you could be kicking an XP instead?
quote:Based on what?
If you can assume two TDs will be score without the other team scoring, it is the smarter choice to accept the possibility of a loss in OT than to risk losing because you forced yourself into 2-pt conversions.
Smarter for the coach's job security is all.
This post was edited on 1/22/16 at 4:37 pm
Posted on 1/22/16 at 4:36 pm to saintforlife
Spinoff idea. You're up by 1 and score a touchdown at the later part of the game. Do you consider going for 2 and go up by 9?
Posted on 1/22/16 at 4:43 pm to shel311
Shoot 
wasn't really talking about the prompt
wasn't really talking about the prompt Posted on 1/22/16 at 5:01 pm to Glorious
You have to score twice anyway. Assuming you do that, you have a better chance of winniny by going for 2. 50% chance you win by getting first one then kicking xp. 25% chance you go to OT from missing first and getting second. 25% chance yoy miss both. 50%>25%. Even at 40% coversion rate, you are better off going for 2. Yall suck at math and logic
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